Some Basic Facts About High Oil Prices

From The Christian Science Monitor:

As I noted last week, I have been working on a short paper for ASP on gas prices. It was published earlier today with a title of “Cause & Effect: U.S. Gasoline Prices.” I also published an Op-Ed in The Hill “Running on empty: Failing to address high gas prices“ and was quoted in Reuters saying “The truth is, neither party is offering policies that will effectively address high gas prices.”

The report seeks to get beyond both party’s preferred narratives on gas prices and looks more deeply at the root causes of today’s high gasoline prices. Hopefully, it will puncture some of the assertions and rhetoric that both political parties use about gas prices, whether it’s shouting “speculation!” by those on the left or “too much regulation!” by those on the right.


The truth, of course, is that crude oil is the essential ingredient to 90% of our gasoline supply (ethanol is blended in to provide the other 10%). Although gasoline prices vary widely around the world due to differing tax regimes, regulatory rules, and market requirements, crude oil is a globally traded commodity with prices set in a global marketplace.



This Isn’t the 1950′s

The root problem with the politics of gas prices in the U.S. right now is a failure to admit that we are only a (relatively) small part of a global market. It is as if we were stuck in the 1950s, where production from the U.S. was more than half of the world’s production. Republicans think that all we need to do is produce more, and prices will come down, while Democrats think that it’s all about how Wall Street trades oil contracts. These measures would probably work if the U.S. were producing and consuming half of the world’s oil production. But, in a world where we’re responsible for 9% of production, while consuming 20%, we simply do not have the ability to control prices.


The American market is no longer the most important factor in prices; growth in countries like Brazil, China, and India means that we are at the whims of global prices.


If anything, it is the threat of another war in the Middle East that is driving up prices. A conflict between Israel and Iran, possibly including the U.S., would put the 15 million barrels of oil per day that sails through the Strait of Hormuz at risk. Oil speculators are rightly placing a ‘risk premium’ on world oil supplies because a closure of the Straits of Hormuz would catastrophically drive up the price of oil.


I think the only thing that American politicians could do to reduce the price of oil in the short term, and hence the price of gasoline, is to diplomatically resolve issues with Iran, not further ratchet up tensions.

We could improve our relations with Iran in an instant if we just let them do anything they want, which includes developing a working Nuclear Weapon and wiping Isreal off the face of the Planet.

Is that what you have in mind? Neville Chamberland would be proud.

We have 20 or so military bases near the border of Iran. Who is a threat to who?

Oh, BL, let's review your post:

Did he cite his source? Check.
Was the source reliable? Check.
Did the source give a reasonable explanation for its opinion? Check.

Good one, BL! I think you hit this on the head!

+1 for BL

I don't see the price if crude going down much. If anything, it's likely to go up when the world economy gets back on track in five or six years. Simple supply and demand.

Hey TTH, Long time, no post. Nice to have you back. You have no idea how smart these other clowns on here make you look.

Spent three weeks in Europe. Second trip in the last six months. Every time I miss this place less and less.

Here is the easiest way I can put it to you.

The currency that oil is priced and traded in is the US dollar.
When you buy a barrel of oil you are pay in US dollars.
If I have oil to sell I will want more US dollars for the oil
because
US dollars are worth less
because
the current administration has been printing money
and
allowing our credit rating to drop.
This has caused the value of our dollar to drp
and now you need more dollars to buy the oil.
Take a look at the price of gold and where it has settled at.
This is a marker of inflation and the value of a dollar.
It takes a lot more dollars to buy an ounce of gold than it did before.

Until we are rid of Obama and our government is returned to some semblance of sanity the prices will remain high.


Oh and of course it is Bush's fault.

T2Pomerainans, were you making the same argument when Bushgas was over $4.00?

[quote=The2Dogs;2450757]Here is the easiest way I can put it to you.

The currency that oil is priced and traded in is the US dollar.
When you buy a barrel of oil you are pay in US dollars.
If I have oil to sell I will want more US dollars for the oil
because
US dollars are worth less
because
the current administration has been printing money
and
allowing our credit rating to drop.
This has caused the value of our dollar to drp
and now you need more dollars to buy the oil.
Take a look at the price of gold and where it has settled at.
This is a marker of inflation and the value of a dollar.
It takes a lot more dollars to buy an ounce of gold than it did before.

Until we are rid of Obama and our government is returned to some semblance of sanity the prices will remain high

Wondered how long it would take one of the wingnuts to ignore facts and blame Obama.

Ekim, please explain where T2D's logic is faulty. Thank you.

I'll just leave this here:

http://www.tehrantimes.com/economy-a...cial-sanctions

As countries around the world and the banks that operate within them attempt to avoid American financial sanctions against Iran – which blocks access to doing business in the United States for any entity that buys Iranian oil- Forbes reports that China will look to buy the Iranian product using gold to circumvent Washington’s policy.
*
China is Iran’s largest trading partner and buys more petroleum from Iran than any other country. *Already, China and India are bartering with Iran, using consumer goods, and in the case of India, the rupee, to pay for Iranian oil imports.
*
Iran has already said it will accept gold as payment for its oil in an attempt to prevent countries from stopping their purchases of Iranian petroleum altogether.*
*
As countries like India, Turkey, and China try to avoid American and European Union *sanctions on Iranian oil by looking to other sources, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geinther spoke over the weekend about global supplies.

***This combined with China and Russia's joint military exercises are of interest to this topic.

Examine the circumstances during the Bush administration and you will see that inflation was only a partial reason for the spike in oil prices.
This was coupled with speculation and an extremely high demand from china leading up to the summer Olympics where China rushed and spent like hell to make their country look good in the eyes of the rest of the world.
As long as we continue to borrow money the value of the dollar will continue to drop.

If you want another marker take a look at the price of copper.
Take a look at the price of corn.

Why is the price of copper so high during a period of extremely slow growth which is more than likely still a recession.

T2Pomerainans, were you making the same argument when Bushgas was over $4.00? Originally Posted by Randy4Candy

LMAO.. just read this Randy.. first thing I thought of was little terminator puppies running around..hahah

Just watch where you step, I am just sayinn.

Ekim, please explain where T2D's logic is faulty. Thank you. Originally Posted by CuteOldGuy

ok, as soon as he includes china using 9.9 million barrels of oil every day