Dont kid Yourself about statistics

I recently read some statistics (referenced below) on American sexual behavior. Keep in mind that although interesting and thought provoking, data derived from surveys is never completely accurate because people lie (gasp, suprise!) Here are some interesting hilights and then a thought provoking question of my own:

• The average american has 11 different sexual partners in their lifetime.
  
• (my opinion) The average hobbyist has probably had more partners than the average american. For discussion purposes, lets assume that number is greater than 30 partners.
  
• It is generally accepted that 20% of americans carry the genital herpes but many are unaware that they have it due to the lack or mildness of symptoms.
  
• (my opinion) One should not assume from this that the odds of having genital herpes go up by slightly less than 2% for every sexual partner however because the odds of being exposed to the virus are much higher if one has sex with someone in the 11+ partners than if they were to have had sex with a first timer.
  

QUESTION: If 20% of "average" americans (who have only had 11 partners) have genital herpes, what do you think those odds are for the average hobbyist or average provider?


Interesting Links:
http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Poll...=156921&page=1
http://www.kinseyinstitute.org/research/ak-data.html

QUESTION: If 20% of "average" americans (who have only had 11 partners) have genital herpes, what do you think those odds are for the average hobbyist or average provider? Originally Posted by yourself

hell if i know.

JPdM

the nerd in me had to respond. The simple answer... if you know the probability of getting infected from one encounter (say uncovered) is 2%, then your probability of not getting infected after say N encounters is:
(1-p)^N or for N=20 encounters, (.98)^20 (or .98 multiplied by itself 20 times) or 66.8%. If you are covered, the probability drops alot (say 1% chance when using a condom, then probability from any one encounter is 2%*1% or .02%. So, the probability of not getting infected after 20 encounters would be 99.6%... Another reason for staying covered...

this is a special branch of mathematics called combinatorics...

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics--too many owners of this quote, including Mark Twain.

I'm with Gonzo on this one!
This could fall right in line with the thread on how many hookers are in supposedly in town for the Super Bowl!

I recently read some statistics (referenced below) on American sexual behavior. Keep in mind that although interesting and thought provoking, data derived from surveys is never completely accurate because people lie (gasp, suprise!) Here are some interesting hilights and then a thought provoking question of my own:

• The average american has 11 different sexual partners in their lifetime.
• (my opinion) The average hobbyist has probably had more partners than the average american. For discussion purposes, lets assume that number is greater than 30 partners.
• It is generally accepted that 20% of americans carry the genital herpes but many are unaware that they have it due to the lack or mildness of symptoms.
• (my opinion) One should not assume from this that the odds of having genital herpes go up by slightly less than 2% for every sexual partner however because the odds of being exposed to the virus are much higher if one has sex with someone in the 11+ partners than if they were to have had sex with a first timer.

QUESTION: If 20% of "average" americans (who have only had 11 partners) have genital herpes, what do you think those odds are for the average hobbyist or average provider?


Interesting Links:
http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Poll...=156921&page=1
http://www.kinseyinstitute.org/research/ak-data.html Originally Posted by yourself

well if you practice safe sex then you will not have a problem with any STI's

I hate word problems!

But I know where you are going and share the philosophy. The higher risk groups, teenagers, sex workers, and their clients have to do most of the heavy lifting for the national average. It only makes sense.

About the only thing I can say is that there are so many implicit assumptions in the first post that it's not even wrong.

diogenes has appropriately shed light on this subject by honestly giving the formula for binomial probability over a significant number of runs. He is his own honest man.