Just wanna make sure everybody saw this!! Whoohoo. And if you don't like where the article is from - for whatever reason - just google it and there are lots more!
https://fortune.com/2019/10/16/will-...lection-model/
- Austin Ellen
- 10-18-2019, 11:56 AM
- Tiny
- 10-18-2019, 12:50 PM
Absolutely he should win based on the economy, as long as the trade war or something else doesn't torpedo it before the election. The problem is that he can't control his mouth so that there's a good chance Elizabeth Warren will be our next president, despite the economy. ELIZABETH WARREN! Unbelievable.
- Levianon17
- 10-18-2019, 01:01 PM
Absolutely he should win based on the economy, as long as the trade war or something else doesn't torpedo it before the election. The problem is that he can't control his mouth so that there's a good chance Elizabeth Warren will be our next president, despite the economy. ELIZABETH WARREN! Unbelievable. Originally Posted by Tiny
If she lies about her heritage she'll lie about anything. Fuck that skank.
- SpeedRacerXXX
- 10-18-2019, 01:10 PM
Interesting. Moody's is a very reliable source. As stated in the article:
"The poll looks at three different economic models to determine the results: Pocketbook (how people feel about their own finances), stock market performance and unemployment.
“If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”"
The poll was incorrect in 2016, predicting a Clinton victory. In my opinion, the poll overestimates the impact of the economy -- in fact it is based solely on the economy. The economy is doing well for most people in this country. More the rich than the poor or middle class though. Trump gets poor grades on non-economic issues such as health care, the #1 concern among Americans, immigration, race issues, foreign policy, and climate change. Will the economy override all other issues? Who really knows? I realize that all Trump supporters believe so.
In 2018, election day did not experience "average voter turnout". It was heavily Democratic. It is unknown at this time which party will be more successful in getting their supporters to the polls. Again, who really knows?
To get to 351 EVs Trump must win Minnesota, Virginia, and NH, a highly improbable outcome.
I still point to the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and possibly Florida as the key states that will lead one party or the other to victory. As we get closer to election day 2020 keep your eyes on what is happening in these states.
BTW, for those who are forecasting doom for the members of "The Squad", Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pressley, and Talib -- they are all heavily favored to win reelection in their districts:
"All four sit in deeply Democratic seats with FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of D+52 or bluer. And among Democrats, their national net favorability ratings are excellent. Per Emerson, Ocasio-Cortez’s net favorability rating within the party is +37, Omar’s is +26, Tlaib’s is +31, and Pressley’s is +30."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-challengers/
"The poll looks at three different economic models to determine the results: Pocketbook (how people feel about their own finances), stock market performance and unemployment.
“If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition, taking home 351 electoral votes to the Democrats’ 187, assuming average voter turnout. This shows the importance that prevailing economic sentiment at the household level could hold in the next election.”"
The poll was incorrect in 2016, predicting a Clinton victory. In my opinion, the poll overestimates the impact of the economy -- in fact it is based solely on the economy. The economy is doing well for most people in this country. More the rich than the poor or middle class though. Trump gets poor grades on non-economic issues such as health care, the #1 concern among Americans, immigration, race issues, foreign policy, and climate change. Will the economy override all other issues? Who really knows? I realize that all Trump supporters believe so.
In 2018, election day did not experience "average voter turnout". It was heavily Democratic. It is unknown at this time which party will be more successful in getting their supporters to the polls. Again, who really knows?
To get to 351 EVs Trump must win Minnesota, Virginia, and NH, a highly improbable outcome.
I still point to the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and possibly Florida as the key states that will lead one party or the other to victory. As we get closer to election day 2020 keep your eyes on what is happening in these states.
BTW, for those who are forecasting doom for the members of "The Squad", Ocasio-Cortez, Omar, Pressley, and Talib -- they are all heavily favored to win reelection in their districts:
"All four sit in deeply Democratic seats with FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of D+52 or bluer. And among Democrats, their national net favorability ratings are excellent. Per Emerson, Ocasio-Cortez’s net favorability rating within the party is +37, Omar’s is +26, Tlaib’s is +31, and Pressley’s is +30."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...y-challengers/
- Austin Ellen
- 10-18-2019, 01:38 PM
Don't worry Tiny. That won't happen. Trust me.
Absolutely he should win based on the economy, as long as the trade war or something else doesn't torpedo it before the election. The problem is that he can't control his mouth so that there's a good chance Elizabeth Warren will be our next president, despite the economy. ELIZABETH WARREN! Unbelievable. Originally Posted by Tiny
- Tiny
- 10-18-2019, 01:41 PM
- rexdutchman
- 10-21-2019, 08:05 AM
Yupper if warren and berines keep it up ,
- Chung Tran
- 10-21-2019, 08:28 AM
- WTF
- 10-21-2019, 08:59 AM
Just wanna make sure everybody saw this!! Whoohoo. And if you don't like where the article is from - for whatever reason - just google it and there are lots more!
https://fortune.com/2019/10/16/will-...lection-model/ Originally Posted by Austin Ellen
So now you believe the predictions....
- WTF
- 10-21-2019, 09:03 AM
- theotherguy1
- 10-21-2019, 09:06 AM
Actually I 100% believe that Trump will win in 2020 and he should but don't get it twisted he is the biggest liar in the Country. Hillary and ELIZABETH WARREN can't touch him on lying and cheating but that is the sign of a good business man.
- WTF
- 10-21-2019, 09:15 AM
Actually I 100% believe that Trump will win in 2020 and he should but don't get it twisted he is the biggest liar in the Country. Hillary and ELIZABETH WARREN can't touch him on lying and cheating but that is the sign of a good business man. Originally Posted by theotherguy1I do not agree that he should win....I do agree that he is the biggest liar we have ever seen.
- WTF
- 10-21-2019, 09:16 AM
- Tiny
- 10-21-2019, 09:53 AM
yeah, sure you are.. just like the many Leftists who said they would leave the US if Trump won. they are all still here. Originally Posted by Chung TranMark my words, I will be gone by December 31, 2020 if Warren or Sanders is elected president and if Democrats will control the Senate. History is littered with the corpses of people who waited until it was too late, like European Jews during the 1930's. Warren or Sanders is not going to kill me, but if either one of them is actually able to implement one of their proposed policies, my life will become a living hell. I'm not going into detail on this for privacy reasons.
- WTF
- 10-21-2019, 10:42 AM
Mark my words, I will be gone by December 31, 2020 if Warren or Sanders is elected president and if Democrats will control the Senate. History is littered with the corpses of people who waited until it was too late, like European Jews during the 1930's. Warren or Sanders is not going to kill me, but if either one of them is actually able to implement one of their proposed policies, my life will become a living hell. I'm not going into detail on this for privacy reasons. Originally Posted by Tiny
