Unemployment Under Biden

Here were the unemployment numbers at the end of 2019, before the onset of Covid:

Overall: 3.6%
Black Americans: 5.5%
Hispanic Americans: 4.3%

These were the lowest numbers in 50 years, since 1969!

I don't see Biden coming anywhere close to these numbers during the next four years, or the next eight years, if he's able to implement his platform. Why?

1. He has proposed a $15/hour minimum wage. He wants to apply this to everyone, including restaurant and bar workers who receive tips, many of whom do quite well, much better than $15/hour. Estimates are this will cost 700,000 jobs, just among those who work for tips. I suspect it will cost millions of jobs in total. Don't get me wrong, I've got no problem with a minimum wage. But it should be set at the local or state level. What works in New York City doesn't work in McAllen, Texas. And for that matter it should vary with economic conditions. My community could have easily supported a $15 minimum wage a year ago. Right now, given what's happened as a result of Covid, $15 would put a lot of employees out of work and a lot of business owners out of business.

2. He says he will shut down oil and gas drilling on federal leases, and in the longer term will put policies into effect to achieve "0" net carbon emissions. This would effectively shutter the oil and gas industry in the USA in the long term. Look for hundreds of thousands of lost jobs in the short term, and if future administrations and Congresses continue these policies, millions of jobs lost.

3. Biden will use the bully pulpit and probably get more people to use masks and social distance, which I believe will actually help preserve jobs. However, he'll also be promoting lockdowns more than Trump. I expect the net effect will be lost jobs.

4. Biden wants to increase the federal corporate tax rate to 27% or 28%. While a step backward, this by itself isn't extremely onerous. However, add in an average 5% tax at the state level, and the U.S. again will have one of the higher corporate income tax rates in the world. This will stifle employment as the government takes more money out of the private sector and shifts it to government to be used for who knows what. Higher tax rates on unincorporated businesses will also hurt.

5. According to Larry Summers, economic advisor to Democratic Presidents, when you add Biden's stimulus proposals to what we've already spent, we're covering 3X the output gap, being the GDP we lost from Covid. A lot of this money will end up in programs that will incentivize some people to avoid work. Not most people, but some.

6. Biden will ramp up regulation on business. This will cost jobs.

When unemployment fails to come down like it should, who will Democrats blame? You can look for hints from what happened during the Obama administration, and who they assigned the blame to then.

Most Informative, 5 Star Thread Today

Have a Great Night and Happy Hobbying!

you need to compare the start of the Obama administration and of the administration numbers. Trump just kept a downward trend going, the percent change under Obama is greater than Trumos. in fact, that's the case under every Dem administration vs Reopub administration since Nixon.

Just watch him!

Hail to the Chief!

Most Informative, 5 Star Thread Today

Have a Great Night and Happy Hobbying! Originally Posted by Alyssa XOXO

Thanks Alyssa! You made my day.

you need to compare the start of the Obama administration and of the administration numbers. Trump just kept a downward trend going, the percent change under Obama is greater than Trumos. in fact, that's the case under every Dem administration vs Reopub administration since Nixon. Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Considering the unemployment rate at the end of the Obama administration was 5.8%, it damn sure should have continued down.

Unemployment was flat at around 11% under Carter and went down from 11% to 7% under Ronald Reagan. So what you said isn't strictly true.

Reagan with some help from Tip O'Neill, Paul Volcker and others played a part in engineering what at the time was the longest peacetime expansion in the history of the U.S.A. George H.W. Bush had the misfortune of being president when that expansion ended. Clinton, Robert Rubin, and a Republican Congress deserve a lot of credit for managing the economy well during the 2nd half of the 1990's. Democrats unjustly blame the 2008/2009 recession on George W. Bush. I blame it more on regulators and Barney Frank and the like. As to Trump, Pelosi and McConnell, it was Covid. Compared to Europe, the U.S.A. has actually done pretty well in terms of GDP and unemployment during 2020.

In any event, normally the President doesn't have nearly as big an effect on the economy as people believe. You have Fed policy, the business cycle, Congress, and a lot of other factors at play that may be just as or more important than the President.

That said, some of Biden's policies look like they're targeted towards putting people out of work, and they will if implemented.

What is after Covid-19

Here were the unemployment numbers at the end of 2019, before the onset of Covid:

Overall: 3.6%
Black Americans: 5.5%
Hispanic Americans: 4.3%

These were the lowest numbers in 50 years, since 1969!

I don't see Biden coming anywhere close to these numbers during the next four years, or the next eight years, if he's able to implement his platform. Why?

1. He has proposed a $15/hour minimum wage. He wants to apply this to everyone, including restaurant and bar workers who receive tips, many of whom do quite well, much better than $15/hour. Estimates are this will cost 700,000 jobs, just among those who work for tips. I suspect it will cost millions of jobs in total. Don't get me wrong, I've got no problem with a minimum wage. But it should be set at the local or state level. What works in New York City doesn't work in McAllen, Texas. And for that matter it should vary with economic conditions. My community could have easily supported a $15 minimum wage a year ago. Right now, given what's happened as a result of Covid, $15 would put a lot of employees out of work and a lot of business owners out of business.

2. He says he will shut down oil and gas drilling on federal leases, and in the longer term will put policies into effect to achieve "0" net carbon emissions. This would effectively shutter the oil and gas industry in the USA in the long term. Look for hundreds of thousands of lost jobs in the short term, and if future administrations and Congresses continue these policies, millions of jobs lost.

3. Biden will use the bully pulpit and probably get more people to use masks and social distance, which I believe will actually help preserve jobs. However, he'll also be promoting lockdowns more than Trump. I expect the net effect will be lost jobs.

4. Biden wants to increase the federal corporate tax rate to 27% or 28%. While a step backward, this by itself isn't extremely onerous. However, add in an average 5% tax at the state level, and the U.S. again will have one of the higher corporate income tax rates in the world. This will stifle employment as the government takes more money out of the private sector and shifts it to government to be used for who knows what. Higher tax rates on unincorporated businesses will also hurt.

5. According to Larry Summers, economic advisor to Democratic Presidents, when you add Biden's stimulus proposals to what we've already spent, we're covering 3X the output gap, being the GDP we lost from Covid. A lot of this money will end up in programs that will incentivize some people to avoid work. Not most people, but some.

6. Biden will ramp up regulation on business. This will cost jobs.

When unemployment fails to come down like it should, who will Democrats blame? You can look for hints from what happened during the Obama administration, and who they assigned the blame to then. Originally Posted by Tiny

I agree with your sentiment. I've said this before and I'll say it again Biden is nothing but a puppet and a dumb one at that. This was apparent before the election. If you voted for him you should have known better.

Here were the unemployment numbers at the end of 2019, before the onset of Covid:

Overall: 3.6%
Black Americans: 5.5%
Hispanic Americans: 4.3%

These were the lowest numbers in 50 years, since 1969!

I don't see Biden coming anywhere close to these numbers during the next four years, or the next eight years, if he's able to implement his platform. Why?

1. He has proposed a $15/hour minimum wage. He wants to apply this to everyone, including restaurant and bar workers who receive tips, many of whom do quite well, much better than $15/hour. Estimates are this will cost 700,000 jobs, just among those who work for tips. I suspect it will cost millions of jobs in total. Don't get me wrong, I've got no problem with a minimum wage. But it should be set at the local or state level. What works in New York City doesn't work in McAllen, Texas. And for that matter it should vary with economic conditions. My community could have easily supported a $15 minimum wage a year ago. Right now, given what's happened as a result of Covid, $15 would put a lot of employees out of work and a lot of business owners out of business.

2. He says he will shut down oil and gas drilling on federal leases, and in the longer term will put policies into effect to achieve "0" net carbon emissions. This would effectively shutter the oil and gas industry in the USA in the long term. Look for hundreds of thousands of lost jobs in the short term, and if future administrations and Congresses continue these policies, millions of jobs lost.

3. Biden will use the bully pulpit and probably get more people to use masks and social distance, which I believe will actually help preserve jobs. However, he'll also be promoting lockdowns more than Trump. I expect the net effect will be lost jobs.

4. Biden wants to increase the federal corporate tax rate to 27% or 28%. While a step backward, this by itself isn't extremely onerous. However, add in an average 5% tax at the state level, and the U.S. again will have one of the higher corporate income tax rates in the world. This will stifle employment as the government takes more money out of the private sector and shifts it to government to be used for who knows what. Higher tax rates on unincorporated businesses will also hurt.

5. According to Larry Summers, economic advisor to Democratic Presidents, when you add Biden's stimulus proposals to what we've already spent, we're covering 3X the output gap, being the GDP we lost from Covid. A lot of this money will end up in programs that will incentivize some people to avoid work. Not most people, but some.

6. Biden will ramp up regulation on business. This will cost jobs.

When unemployment fails to come down like it should, who will Democrats blame? You can look for hints from what happened during the Obama administration, and who they assigned the blame to then. Originally Posted by Tiny

What is now seem like black are In unemployment line, maybe because falsly gave them jail time,
1. We don't want people wasted time doing unproductive jobs we will rather have them on eccie. And with inflation $15 min wage going to like $ 5 min wage under Clinton minwager has not be raised in 15 years. And don't think will be shock in. Poor can shop vs getting welfare with a higher minwage there for creating more jobs.
2.oil company should drill there own land. And oil terraf Trump fail to imposed in April and we paid china to take oil off our hands. This cause bankruptcies of the oil companies then there no jobs.

3. Covid-19 is fake it does make one sick than a being around to many smelly hookers. Won't change jobs because what happing now. 24 hour service vs heavy used of checking lains all one time.
4. When a government spends It taxes bottom line It better than devaluing a currency which will cause dumping therefore make it even more costly on the overspending so raising corporate income taxes would be the best thing to do and actually be a tax decrease over trump tax increase. Moose corporations don't pay whole lot of taxes anyway so the big problem is is it still going to be a disparity.

5. Most people don't avoid work unless paid to do so.
6. It depends on regulation, for example I from Michigan where have pricing law. Every thing price vs Oklahoma where I at now and ease time at checkout I hate shopping in Oklahoma. I won't go in party stores here still it make me head no prices.
With honestly people will make good decisions most regulation is there to increase honesty. I'm down here in Oklahoma a Republican state where I see almost honesty in any where realitor run a muck, title company run a muck.

Oboma Clinton the numbers went down vs bush and bush, Reagan it wasn't too bad either.

Tiny to you original point, you still ignore the percentage decrease in unmployment under Obama vs Trump. Greater decreases across the board. Plus we all know it’s more difficult to pull an economy out of recession than it is to make a good economy better. Trump didn’t have to do anything. The economy was on the right track when he came in. When Obama became president the economy was going in the wrong direction.

Trumps economic policy was “let’s not fuck up what Obama handed us”. Obama actually had to develop an economic policy and implement it to stop a recession and create a growing economy. And that’s what he did. Republicans biggest complaint was that it was a slow growth, which was intentional as to not risk a double dip.

Let’s be honest. Trumps economic team was lacking. It was comprised of people he watched in morning Kudlow, really???

For almost 4 years under Trump, all the Trump supporters on this forum predicted a Trump reelection in 2020 based on the soaring economy. "It's the economy stupid." was the mantra.

https://www.postandcourier.com/aiken...684f5e8c6.html

Certainly the economy is high on the minds of voters, but so are factors like health care, immigration, race, foreign relations, etc. Trump sacrificed everything in favor of the economy. He was a businessman. Trump improved the unemployment rate from 4.7% to 3.5%. Goodness. But he failed the voters in other areas and was voted out. The economy under Biden will likely not reach the heights seen under Trump prior to the pandemic. But I am hoping that the net gains seen in other areas far offset that. We shall see.

Tiny - thank you for a good discussion of the consequences of Fiden's policies - unemployment, a crashing economy, and ultimately - hyperinflation from massive deficit spending.
I hope you have a plan to leave Amerika when AOC opens her re-education camps- you will be among the first incarcerated for political dissent - as will I.


and -1b1 makes it clear - the DPST's will blame Trump. They are unable to comprehend the consequences of their policies.

their marxist anti free enterprise policies aim to put all amerika on their dole and control the country.

Their blueprint is the Soylent Green new Deal



1b1- ever read AOC's Soylent Green new Deal????
it is Orwellian- and AOC will stuff it down the throats of her DPST/CCP Amerika!

Lets see FIRST DAY : At least 11,000 jobs lost Keystone xl / 15 hour min wage / more masks boom for ppe makers CHINA ( fed building even he didn't ) climate accord / that's just the start
Just Brilliant the galactic incompetence of the dark winter has started

Lets see FIRST DAY : At least 11,000 jobs lost Keystone xl / 15 hour min wage / more masks boom for ppe makers CHINA ( fed building even he didn't ) climate accord / that's just the start
Just Brilliant the galactic incompetence of the dark winter has started Originally Posted by rexdutchman

In the words of Donald Trump "Elections have consequences">. Joe Biden was elected on November 6th and as I predicted the day Pennsylvania was declared for him, he took office on January 20, 2021.

Just as with Trump, not everyone will agree with Biden's actions.Like Trump, he is doing what he said he would do and voters elected him. Like Trump, his perceived success will rise and fall with those actions.

THE FACTS: Trump is seeking credit he doesn’t deserve for black job growth. He’s also wrong to assert that Democrats haven’t done anything to improve the economic situation for African Americans.

It’s true that black unemployment did reach a record low during the Trump administration: 5.9 percent in May 2018. It currently stands at 6 percent.

But many economists view the continued economic growth since the middle of 2009, when Democratic President Barack Obama was in office, as the primary explanation for hiring. More important, there are multiple signs that the racial wealth gap is now worsening and the administration appears to have done little, if anything, to specifically address this challenge.

African Americans also had higher income prior to the Trump administration. A black household earned median income of $40,258 in 2017, the latest data available. That’s below a 2000 peak of $42,348, according to the Census Bureau.

The most dramatic drop in black unemployment came under Obama, when it fell from a recession high of 16.8 percent in March 2010 to 7.8 percent in January 2017

AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.