Donald Trump handed troubling news in back-to-back polls - for those who love their polls.

If you think Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts is going to help him - corporate donations aside - then think again. I figured this would take a couple of weeks to see. But it’s taken a day.

https://apple.news/AMSOwfKolTc-CsYXKn0Lyow

Donald Trump handed troubling news in back-to-back polls

June 01, 2024

Former President Donald Trump has been handed bad news in the form of two polls that suggest his felony conviction could hurt his chances of defeating President Joe Biden in November.

Trump, this year's presumptive GOP presidential nominee, was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records by a jury in New York on Thursday. The former president called the outcome a "disgrace," while describing himself as "a very innocent man" and claiming that "the real verdict" would be on Election Day.

A pair of polls that were conducted just after the conviction was announced and released on Friday offer evidence that Trump's chances of receiving a more favorable "verdict" at the ballot box in November may have been damaged by his conviction in Manhattan.
A poll released by Reuters/Ipsos on Friday night found that 10 percent of Republican voters said were "less likely" to vote for Trump due to his conviction. While 35 percent of GOP voters said they were "more likely," Reuters pointed out that the group "would be likely to vote for him regardless of the conviction."

Among independent voters, 25 percent were less likely to vote for Trump after the verdict, while 18 percent said they were "more likely." A 56 percent majority of independents said that the Trump verdict would have no impact on their choice of president.

The survey, conducted nationally among 2,556 adults, also found that Biden has a statistically insignificant lead over Trump, with 41 percent of respondents favoring the current president and 39 percent favoring Trump. Biden's lead was just within the poll's 2 percent margin of error.
Trump campaign spokesperson Steven Cheung responded to Newsweek's request for comment on the polling results by touting the former president's fundraising windfall and claiming there had been unspecified "polling increases" following his conviction.

"President Trump has seen an outpouring support, which has led to polling increases and record-shattering fundraising numbers that include close to $53 million in just 24 hours, 30% of those who are new donors," Cheung said in an email.

Regardless, a YouGov "snap poll" conducted among 3,040 U.S. adults hours after the verdict also suggested that Trump's conviction was anything but good news for the former president in an election that may be decided by a small number of votes in battleground states.
The poll found that 50 percent of Americans agreed with the jury's verdict, with only 30 percent believing he was not guilty and 19 percent undecided. 47 percent said they thought Trump received a fair trial, while 37 percent said he did not.

Notably, 48 percent of independent voters who were polled agreed that Trump was guilty, compared to just 25 percent who said he was not guilty, although the degree to which a belief in Trump's guilt equates to an unwillingness to vote for the former president was unknown.

Multiple polls taken before the verdict hinted that Trump's status as a felon may be enough to decide the winner of the close election, with polls conducted in April and May finding that the ex-president would lose between 5 and 7 percent of the overall vote with a conviction.
Mark Shanahan, an American politics professor at the U.K.'s University of Surrey, told Newsweek earlier on Friday that the conviction "matters only to the small percentage of undecided voters in half a dozen swing states who will decide this election," while also predicting "The Trump campaign may well see support melt away" after his sentencing on July 11 and with additional legal cases looming.

Democrats were a lot more fired up to go to the polls and vote prior to the verdict, because of the Dobbs abortion decision and because Trump tried to steal an election. The Stormy Daniels verdict is going to fire up Republicans. Still I suspect the overall effect of the conviction taking the independents into account will be to lower the number of votes Trump will get somewhat.

... No worrys here! ... Trump is STRONG in the real polls.
Crikey! ... You-Gov", Newsweek, and a bloke form Surrey??

IF any of them told me that Trump was ahead - I'd surely question it.

#### Salty

Chris Christie said today that he thinks the effect of the verdict on Trump’s attitude will be more important than the effect on voters. Christie says it will make him angrier and more paranoid. And so he’ll dwell on the injustices he believes have been rained down upon him. And he won’t focus on what he should, issues like the economy and the border.

As if he ever focused on anything but himself and his privilege.

Christie is spot on.

... No worrys here! ... Trump is STRONG in the real polls.
Crikey! ... You-Gov", Newsweek, and a bloke form Surrey??

IF any of them told me that Trump was ahead - I'd surely question it.

#### Salty Originally Posted by Salty Again

Says the guy who never provides ANY SUBSTANTIATIOUN..

What is unfair or not-credible about a “bloke from Surrey?” When was the last time you were in Surrey? Isn’t he one of “me political insiders?”

You forgot IPSOS.

In fact, you forgot a lot of things.

Chris Christie said today that he thinks the effect of the verdict on Trump’s attitude will be more important than the effect on voters. Christie says it will make him angrier and more paranoid. And so he’ll dwell on the injustices he believes have been rained down upon him. And he won’t focus on what he should, issues like the economy and the border. Originally Posted by Tiny

Chris Christie should concentrate less on Trump and concentrate on himself and why after two runs for President he couldn't clinch the Republican nomination.

Chris Christie should concentrate less on Trump and concentrate on himself and why after two runs for President he couldn't clinch the Republican nomination. Originally Posted by Levianon17

Is he wrong?

Chris Christie should concentrate less on Trump and concentrate on himself... Originally Posted by Levianon17

True, he should concentrate on pushing himself away from the dinner table. And hitting the gym.

My point was this could hurt Trump worse than what polls right now indicate, if the conviction eats into his head.

Chris Christie said today that he thinks the effect of the verdict on Trump’s attitude will be more important than the effect on voters. Christie says it will make him angrier and more paranoid. And so he’ll dwell on the injustices he believes have been rained down upon him. And he won’t focus on what he should, issues like the economy and the border. Originally Posted by Tiny

Chris Christie is right and it doesn’t take a genius to see it. Trump is a mentally deficient narcissistic sociopath who only thinks of himself. When he feels threatened he goes on the attack no matter how stupid it usually is. He’s spent a lifetime making enemies most of them in the last eight years. I don’t expect anything from him but insults and anti immigration rhetoric.

... So did the thread shift from new polls to Chris Christie?

If so - "weight polls" say Christie needs Slim-Fast - and FAST!

#### Salty

No, but you and your mate are taking it that way, Salty.

Christie was commenting on factors pertinent to this very topic and Tiny posted the comments.

Odd that this post is about poll results and you're not dancing and hee heeing.

I thought it would take a couple of weeks for the polls to trend back to reality, but the bump in the polls Trump thinks he's getting is already showing a slightly fractured base among actual GOP voters.

The way he beats his gums, by November, Trump will have blathered himself into a bottomless pit from which even he won't arise.

So I agree with Chris Christie. AND txdot-guy.

PS - and what's wrong with the bloke from Surrey?

... So did the thread shift from new polls to Chris Christie?

If so - "weight polls" say Christie needs Slim-Fast - and FAST!

#### Salty Originally Posted by Salty Again

Haha! That we can all agree on!

Great thread topic.
No one should believe a criminal conviction would help in presidential polling.

Great thread topic.
No one should believe a criminal conviction would help in presidential polling. Originally Posted by winn dixie

Especially 34 felonies. Wow. Trump went big on this one. He should get at least a year for each one. I'd settle for a month for each charge though. At least the orange jumpsuit will match his makeup.