Joe Biden Retakes the Lead Over Trump in National Polling Average

A virtual dead heat, but the trend is unmistakable and undeniable.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...4&sc=shoreline

Joe Biden Retakes the Lead Over Trump in National Polling Average


President Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the race to the White House, according to national polling averages.

In March, the incumbent president and the former leader won enough primary races to secure, respectively, the Democratic and Republican nominations in the 2024 presidential election. Polls have so far shown that the results will be tight as the pair are statistically tied in most surveys or enjoying only marginal leads.

However, according to poll tracker VoteHub, which aggregates polling averages of polls issued by highly rated pollsters in the last 28 days, Biden's fortunes may be improving and the Democrat is now slightly ahead of Trump by 0.2 percent with 46.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent.

Newsweek contacted representatives for Trump and Biden by email to comment on this story.

This marks a change from last week, when according to election forecasters 270 to Win, Trump was leading the national polls on average by just under two points (45.8 percent to Biden's 44 percent) based on the last eight surveys.

According to polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight, the Republican was also ahead of his Democratic rival by 1.5 percent as of May 24. This was the largest lead the former president has had since April 2, when he was ahead by the same margin.

Since then, Trump was handed a guilty verdict in his hush money case which may have affected potential voter's opinion about him. Nevertheless, there are still five months to go until voters go to the ballots and experts have cautioned against relying on polls at this stage.

Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on US Politics at University College London, previously told Newsweek that reading too much into polls was "a fool's errand."

"Polls are so variable at this point that the only consistent insight we can glean from them is that Biden and Trump are neck and neck—not only nationally but in key swing states," he said. "Trying to read too much into any one poll, or even set of polls, five months out from the election is a fool's errand."

Meanwhile, while national polls are interesting, the 2024 presidential election will likely be determined in just a handful of key swing states due to the U.S.'s Electoral College system which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes, based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.

The presidential election will take place on November 5.

That's what my political insiders say as well! Indeed

... Hmmmm... So the incumbent - Biden - was actually BEHIND
the fellow with a number of indictments against Him?? ...

... So NOW Biden has taken the lead back? ... Good for him.

Though hard for me (or anyone else) to be fraught with worry
as your same article surely urges not to rely on polls...

Uh, the article stated the Trump and Biden are "neck and neck" in
key swing states - but didn't name them... But I'm rather interested
in just which swing states have Trump and Joe "neck and neck"...

... Please help a bloke out and show me.

#### Salty

Wiscounsin. Michigaun. Pennsylvaniau. All within the MOE. As of three days agou, amid Trump's "bump."

You can be sure it's nout trending the right way four the Moob you wourship.

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA AH

HAHAHA


HA

H

... Hmmmmm... That's all? ... ... I thought there were
seven (7) or eight (8) swing states?? ... So reckon there's
just three (3) now.

Trump must be ahead in ALL the others - past the M.O.E. ...

#### Salty

... However, if YOU somehow believe that Joe has taken over
the lead in the election - don't let me rain on yer Festival.

... Please keep the Faith! (Biden needs all the support)...

#### Salty

... Hmmmm... So the incumbent - Biden - was actually BEHIND
the fellow with a number of indictments against Him?? ...

... So NOW Biden has taken the lead back? ... Good for him.

Though hard for me (or anyone else) to be fraught with worry
as your same article surely urges not to rely on polls...

Uh, the article stated the Trump and Biden are "neck and neck" in
key swing states - but didn't name them... But I'm rather interested
in just which swing states have Trump and Joe "neck and neck"...

... Please help a bloke out and show me.

#### Salty Originally Posted by Salty Again

According to 538 most recent polls:

Biden leads Trump by 2 in Arizona among likely voters, head to head. Trump leads by 4 with Kennedy votes counted.

Trump +1 in Georgia. Trump had been leading by much more.

Trump +1 in Michigan. Biden +4 in 2nd most recent poll.

Biden +2 in Pennsylvania.

Biden +2 in Wisconsin.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...024/wisconsin/

I agree that no one should take the polls on the election too seriously at this point in time. Polls at the state level are too infrequent right now. The only trend I will point to is Biden who had been trailing at the national level and in most of the battleground states is now ahead in those same states or at the least closing the margins. But all the polls are within the margin of error.

I agree, Speed, but we’ve been getting weekly and often daily updates on Trump’s crushing lead in the polls from one particular MAGA, so obviously this trend must be discomfiting for some folks.

Surely-enough said poster should put his money where his mouth is.

It’s not where you start a campaign but where you finish.

We’re seeing Trump’s finish materializing.

.2 percent????
Polls usually have an error factor percentage of several percent so....
A nothing story about nothing.

Thanks for weighing in.

.2 percent????
Polls usually have an error factor percentage of several percent so....
A nothing story about nothing. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

As I said, the polls should not be taken too seriously at this point in time, especially at the state level. But Salty continues to misrepresent the polls so I wanted to make it clear that almost ALL the polls are close and within the 3-4% margin of error and Biden leads in several.

I don't care what the polls say in June. I hate to break it to MAGA clowns, but Trump is just going to keep looking even worse as we approach November. It's not like they are going to let up on prosecuting that scumbag.

That full of shit asshole tried to overturn an election and completely dismiss democracy for his own selfish gain for fucks sake. If people who are on the fence about voting for him are too stupid to not understand that, maybe our country does deserve to have a wannabe Putin as POTUS.

I will add that if not for the poll updates from some of you guys on this site, I would assume that Biden would be up by a much larger margin overall.

He will be before long.

He’s got a few months to fuck up enough to lose support amongst all but the Jan 6 believers. Don’t think he won’t do it.

And if you don’t think a 3-4 point shift in the national polling average is significant, then you don’t understand research

For my part, I hope it stays close enough to stimulate the turnout.

And Zombiden doesn't screw up every time he says something that does not follow his handler's script?

The Dim's would be better off using a sock puppet.

is this another one of these "polls don't matter unless Biden is leading" threads?


BAAHHAHHAAHAAA