Odds makers in Vegas were right on the 2016 election and now the odds in the 2020 election are not looking good for ol'joe and his hoe!!

I thinks that the money in Vegas being on Trump to win is quite telling. I follow the money and not the polls that predicted the 2016 election when the odds in Vegas were on Trump then as they are now. This article is quite enlighten and telling at the same time. SPEED if you have your money on bitten the odds are against you...but then again what else is new?? In other words, the smart money says, “Tell me what I need to hear - not what I want to hear.” SPEED please come back with more of you superior intellect to explain this away!!


20,871 views|Sep 17, 2020,11:50am EDT
Has The Presidential Race Just Shifted? Vegas Oddsmakers Think So

Jim RossiContributor
I write about the business, history, and global culture of Las Vegas.
Always darkest before The Don?

Does anyone rely on polls anymore? Here in Vegas, life is a game, and so is politics. Instead of following the news, we follow the money - the smart money. VegasElectionOdds.com did just that on September 16. They juxtaposed the polls getting fluffed in the mainstream media, specifically The Guardian, with the wagering at three online sportsbooks: Bovada, BetOnline, and MyBookie.

Why look at gambling odds instead of polls? “First,” VegasElectionOdds writes, “the polls are often manipulated and manufactured in order to influence public perception and sway the masses. Secondly, political polls simply are not reliable due to the many variables involved.”

“To that end,” writes VegasElectionOdds, “The Guardian has attempted to clarify(X) obfuscate things by presenting its own unsound and arbitrary polling aggregator to show that Joe Biden is surely going to win the election.” The Guardian, like other mainstream news media, appears to omit recent polls showing The Donald leading in Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and elsewhere. Orange Man Bad!

Rasmussen Reports called out this ”national poll suppression” at the end of August. This was right after the Republican National Convention seems to have wiped the floor with the DNC - if you include independent reviews, digital and C-SPAN ratings.

So why would a sportsbook’s odds be any better? “It is in their best interest to achieve a clear and concise understanding of how the voters are leaning,” the site states, “in order to ensure the integrity of the betting action and to minimize their risks.”

In other words, the smart money says, “Tell me what I need to hear - not what I want to hear.”

Critics allege mainstream polls over-sample Democrats and focus on registered voters versus likely voters, skewing the results. So does using push-poll questions to get a desired answer, and using opt-in polls that don’t attract a random sample.

Another major factor in 2020? The potential “shy Trump voter.” CNN calls shy Trump voters “likely a myth” - but does anyone still believe CNN about anything? According to surveys by Rasmussen Reports and CloudResearch, Trump voters are more than twice as likely to not tell others who they’re voting for. From my own conversations, I’d guess it’s more than that.

Why would CNN’s polling be any more accurate than their reporting?

CNN's infamous ″mostly peaceful″ fake news chyron from riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin
FAIR USE
Rasmussen also found that of the 42% of people who experienced violent protests in and around their Democrat-led cities, a strong majority favor Trump.

“I think it widens the silent majority,” said former Rep. Jason Lewis, a GOP candidate for the US Senate from riot-hit Minnesota. “So remember the silent majority from the Nixon era we were talking about, but now you really expand that because the riots are trying to intimidate people, right? Trying to get everybody to conform, which is the goal of the cancel culture and everything else.”

“But all that does is drive people underground,”Lewis said.” So these polls you mentioned are probably under accounting Trump supporters... by a wide margin.”

Legal disclaimer: Although it is illegal to gamble on politics in the US, according to VegasElectionOdds, it is “perfectly legal” to gamble at “legally licensed and regulated online sportsbooks located outside the United States.” That is unless you live in Washington State or Connecticut. They don’t allow online political gambling either. Got that? Then let’s hit it.

VegasElectionOdds.com looked at the same eight swing states The Guardian did: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, and the biggest - Florida. “The MSM says Biden is nearly two points up on Trump” in Florida, VegasElectionOdds writes. “Two of three Vegas election sportsbooks say that Trump is leading by about the same margin.” That’s a 3 to 4 point swing.

USA, Nevada, Las Vegas, Strip, fountain, hotels and Eiffel Tower at blue hour
GETTY
According to VegasElectionOdds, betters think Ohio “isn’t even remotely as close as the half-point lead the mainstream media are giving The Donald here. Not. Even. Remotely.”

VegasElectionOdds also predicts Trump will win bigly in North Carolina and Iowa, where The Guardian’s fluffed polls are still close.

So where’s a good place to wager some smart money? VegasElectionOdds likes Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest. “Those Mostly Peaceful Protests™ are mostly good for the Bad Orange Man,” VegasElectionOdds writes, “and other polls suggest a GOP surge is being suppressed by the network powers that be. Voters don’t like those Mostly Peaceful Protests™ in Wisconsin any more than they like them in Michigan.”

If you seek more of a longshot, look to the Sunbelt. “Arizona has long seemed pretty much in the bag for Biden (as it did for Hillary in 2016),” according to VegasElectionOdds, “but most national polling shows a tighter race than what’s being reported.”

Recent days have only reinforced concerns, masterfully amplified by the Trump Campaign, that poor Biden is just a cognitively-impaired puppet and Sen. Kamala Harris is the president-in-waiting. On Saturday, Harris referred to a “Harris administration together with Joe Biden” before correcting herself. Then on Tuesday, Biden himself referred to a “Harris-Biden” administration while speaking from a teleprompter during a veterans roundtable. He then mixed up Iran and Iraq - Iraq being where then-Senator Biden voted for war and his son served.

Many believe Biden has been relying on teleprompters and canned questions for interviews. His spokesman TJ Ducklo refused to answer the question, and shortly after a video surfaced that appears to show a reflected teleprompter during a softball TV interview.

Poll suppression plus partisan differences in voting by mail may lead to confusion on Election Day.

While most Trump voters plan to vote in person, most Biden voters plan to vote by mail.
COURTESY EMERSON COLLEGE POLLING
On the other hand, Trump had to deal with his usual storm of controversies, both self-inflicted and scheduled weekly by the mainstream media. But given how reviled the media is, might it actually help him? Besides, “Art of the Deal” Trump just got three peace treaties signed, the economy is recovering from the pandemic despite riots, and Big Ten football is back on schedule in the Midwest. Orange Man... Good?

The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of national polls for September 16 has Biden leading Trump by six points. But on the same day, heretic Rasmussen’s weekly poll showed Trump leading for the first time - 47 to 46. And given Trump’s advantages in small states, the Electoral College favors him if it’s close.

Also on September 16, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll gave Trump the highest ratings of his presidency - 52 percent overall, with 52 percent on the economy and 49 percent on national security. These are all higher than President Obama’s ratings in the September before his 2012 re-election. Most people, it seems, want good jobs and world peace. Orange Man... Favored?

“Trump shows surprising strength among minority voters,” Rasmussen writes. The finding corroborates other polls showing his support strengthening among Hispanic and Black voters. It also explains the popularity of hashtag campaigns describing Democrat defections - like #walkaway, #demexit, and #blexit. Orange Man... Winning?

Smart gamblers saw this coming. A poll two weeks ago by the Democracy Institute, which correctly forecast Trump’s election and Brexit in 2016, showed Trump leading 48-45 overall, with a significant 49-42 lead in battleground states. Real Clear Politics and The Guardian both appear to have omitted that poll, and few media outlets other than the populist UK Sunday Express reported on it.

Biden/Harris will flip Wisc, Penn and Mich and get to 270 electoral college votes. With 6 weeks to go Biden's lead in these three states far beyond the margin of error. Biden/Harris only need to flip these three to get to 270. If they flip Arizona, that would be icing on the cake. Trump/Pence will be voted out and are going home. If there is as much Trump money as you indicate, the Vegas Bookmakers will clean up. Biden/Harris will win the electoral college. No way for Trump to catch up in Wisc, Penn or Mich.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Let's hope the oddsmakers correctly predict a Trump victory so we can save the republic.

Biden/Harris will flip Wisc, Penn and Mich and get to 270 electoral college votes. With 6 weeks to go Biden's lead in these three states far beyond the margin of error. Biden/Harris only need to flip these three to get to 270. If they flip Arizona, that would be icing on the cake. Trump/Pence will be voted out and are going home. If there is as much Trump money as you indicate, the Vegas Bookmakers will clean up. Biden/Harris will win the electoral college. No way for Trump to catch up in Wisc, Penn or Mich.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ Originally Posted by adav8s28

The article went completely over your head...point taken
You know Jim Jones mixed the cool-aid you're drinking

The only poll that matters is Nov 3.

'a' - stay home - you have no need to vote - harris will be elected potus by a wide margin - so rst in your esy chair and enjoy watching the election and big Brother on your state managed XiNN mono-channel tv

The putin/trump team has no chance of winning but they have appointed Barr to be their fixer lol

The putin/trump team has no chance of winning but they have appointed Barr to be their fixer lol Originally Posted by Tsmokies

With every post you show your IQ...you left out your unsubstantiated racist redneck comment you make in every other post of yours. The russian collusion has long since been debunked but you eat up all the leftwing bullshit genius...put you money on bitten and see your returns.

Well ok bb1. Or you trolling me for your comrade ob1?

Hey BB.Please find a post I've made where I've predicted a Biden win in November. I'll save you the time. At no time have I done so.

Back in the March timeframe Trump was a heavy favorite to win in November according to the odds-makers. In early June Biden took a slight lead and has held it until the past few days when Trump took a slight lead.

As Trump supporters often say when the polls show Biden leading, "Remember 2016". Well, Clinton was favored by quite a bit by odds-makers in 2016 and lost.

What is interesting is that on oddsshark.com they have Trump as a slight favorite to win but have Democrats favored to win in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona. Biden wins. Since I'm not a betting man other than playing blackjack on occasion, maybe I'm reading the information incorrectly.

https://www.oddsshark.com/politics/p...-betting-props

People are going to believe the source that supports their viewpoint. The article mentions only Rasmussen since Rasmussen is the only polling unit that supports the author's POV.

Yeah the DiPShiTs are going to have to put in some double overtime to "find" those thousands of boxes with "uncounted" votes after the election is over if they want to rig this one in ol' Joe's favor .....

I still have to believe that there still are enough americans left to re-elect trump

the alternative is truly a loss of country

so I say trump will win but that just might be my heart for America speaking so that, at least for a while, we can all continue to believe in the promise of america

I still have to believe that there still are enough americans left to re-elect trump Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

Based on the absolute collapse of education and morality in the USEh (borne out by comments repeatedly made by yous and your fellow WSNDs) I would tends to agree with you.

There are more than enough stupid WSND Americans to re-elect Trump.

Especially if he pulls more shenanigans with the voting process, eh!

Out of the mouths of WSNDs...

As a posts script, beebsy, I went to search for the “article” yous posted and my computer flashed a warning message.

man, you are one mixed up person

its usually either emotional problems or social conflicts

write the above sentence down to show the therapist of choice and go get some help

Pennsylvan a- a swing state- just had a judge grant them Three Days after the election to count mail-in ballots.

DPST's are rejoicing - they have been saved

A greater invitation for mail-in ballot stuffing has never existed.

How many 'Votes will come in - as many millions as needed to have Biden (harris) take the state.

when it comes to election fraud - DPST expertise and motive cannot be underestimated.

It looks like your long winded post is wrong.
From From Vegas electionodds.


"all Vegas election odds in 2016 when he became the 45th president of the United States of America. He outlasted a strong field of 11 Republican Party candidates and then toppled Hillary Clinton in the general election. All of this was done without any previous political experience and at an advanced age of 70 years old. However, as the 2020 election nears, pollsters and Vegas bookmakers are giving him about the same chances that he had in 2016: He is expected to lose."
https://www.vegaselectionodds.com/ca.../donald-trump/


Your website favors Biden to win, not trump.
Other betting sites say the same thing.
Odds sharks
Bookie.com
Mybookie

Maybe you could provide a link showing "the smart money is on trump"?
Again, the betting site you mentioned has the smart money on Biden.

I thinks that the money in Vegas being on Trump to win is quite telling. I follow the money and not the polls that predicted the 2016 election when the odds in Vegas were on Trump then as they are now. This article is quite enlighten and telling at the same time. SPEED if you have your money on bitten the odds are against you...but then again what else is new?? In other words, the smart money says, “Tell me what I need to hear - not what I want to hear.” SPEED please come back with more of you superior intellect to explain this away!!


20,871 views|Sep 17, 2020,11:50am EDT
Has The Presidential Race Just Shifted? Vegas Oddsmakers Think So

Jim RossiContributor
I write about the business, history, and global culture of Las Vegas.
Always darkest before The Don?

Does anyone rely on polls anymore? Here in Vegas, life is a game, and so is politics. Instead of following the news, we follow the money - the smart money. VegasElectionOdds.com did just that on September 16. They juxtaposed the polls getting fluffed in the mainstream media, specifically The Guardian, with the wagering at three online sportsbooks: Bovada, BetOnline, and MyBookie.

Why look at gambling odds instead of polls? “First,” VegasElectionOdds writes, “the polls are often manipulated and manufactured in order to influence public perception and sway the masses. Secondly, political polls simply are not reliable due to the many variables involved.”

“To that end,” writes VegasElectionOdds, “The Guardian has attempted to clarify(X) obfuscate things by presenting its own unsound and arbitrary polling aggregator to show that Joe Biden is surely going to win the election.” The Guardian, like other mainstream news media, appears to omit recent polls showing The Donald leading in Florida, North Carolina, Michigan and elsewhere. Orange Man Bad!

Rasmussen Reports called out this ”national poll suppression” at the end of August. This was right after the Republican National Convention seems to have wiped the floor with the DNC - if you include independent reviews, digital and C-SPAN ratings.

So why would a sportsbook’s odds be any better? “It is in their best interest to achieve a clear and concise understanding of how the voters are leaning,” the site states, “in order to ensure the integrity of the betting action and to minimize their risks.”

In other words, the smart money says, “Tell me what I need to hear - not what I want to hear.”

Critics allege mainstream polls over-sample Democrats and focus on registered voters versus likely voters, skewing the results. So does using push-poll questions to get a desired answer, and using opt-in polls that don’t attract a random sample.

Another major factor in 2020? The potential “shy Trump voter.” CNN calls shy Trump voters “likely a myth” - but does anyone still believe CNN about anything? According to surveys by Rasmussen Reports and CloudResearch, Trump voters are more than twice as likely to not tell others who they’re voting for. From my own conversations, I’d guess it’s more than that.

Why would CNN’s polling be any more accurate than their reporting?

CNN's infamous ″mostly peaceful″ fake news chyron from riots in Kenosha, Wisconsin
FAIR USE
Rasmussen also found that of the 42% of people who experienced violent protests in and around their Democrat-led cities, a strong majority favor Trump.

“I think it widens the silent majority,” said former Rep. Jason Lewis, a GOP candidate for the US Senate from riot-hit Minnesota. “So remember the silent majority from the Nixon era we were talking about, but now you really expand that because the riots are trying to intimidate people, right? Trying to get everybody to conform, which is the goal of the cancel culture and everything else.”

“But all that does is drive people underground,”Lewis said.” So these polls you mentioned are probably under accounting Trump supporters... by a wide margin.”

Legal disclaimer: Although it is illegal to gamble on politics in the US, according to VegasElectionOdds, it is “perfectly legal” to gamble at “legally licensed and regulated online sportsbooks located outside the United States.” That is unless you live in Washington State or Connecticut. They don’t allow online political gambling either. Got that? Then let’s hit it.

VegasElectionOdds.com looked at the same eight swing states The Guardian did: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, and the biggest - Florida. “The MSM says Biden is nearly two points up on Trump” in Florida, VegasElectionOdds writes. “Two of three Vegas election sportsbooks say that Trump is leading by about the same margin.” That’s a 3 to 4 point swing.

USA, Nevada, Las Vegas, Strip, fountain, hotels and Eiffel Tower at blue hour
GETTY
According to VegasElectionOdds, betters think Ohio “isn’t even remotely as close as the half-point lead the mainstream media are giving The Donald here. Not. Even. Remotely.”

VegasElectionOdds also predicts Trump will win bigly in North Carolina and Iowa, where The Guardian’s fluffed polls are still close.

So where’s a good place to wager some smart money? VegasElectionOdds likes Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest. “Those Mostly Peaceful Protests™ are mostly good for the Bad Orange Man,” VegasElectionOdds writes, “and other polls suggest a GOP surge is being suppressed by the network powers that be. Voters don’t like those Mostly Peaceful Protests™ in Wisconsin any more than they like them in Michigan.”

If you seek more of a longshot, look to the Sunbelt. “Arizona has long seemed pretty much in the bag for Biden (as it did for Hillary in 2016),” according to VegasElectionOdds, “but most national polling shows a tighter race than what’s being reported.”

Recent days have only reinforced concerns, masterfully amplified by the Trump Campaign, that poor Biden is just a cognitively-impaired puppet and Sen. Kamala Harris is the president-in-waiting. On Saturday, Harris referred to a “Harris administration together with Joe Biden” before correcting herself. Then on Tuesday, Biden himself referred to a “Harris-Biden” administration while speaking from a teleprompter during a veterans roundtable. He then mixed up Iran and Iraq - Iraq being where then-Senator Biden voted for war and his son served.

Many believe Biden has been relying on teleprompters and canned questions for interviews. His spokesman TJ Ducklo refused to answer the question, and shortly after a video surfaced that appears to show a reflected teleprompter during a softball TV interview.

Poll suppression plus partisan differences in voting by mail may lead to confusion on Election Day.

While most Trump voters plan to vote in person, most Biden voters plan to vote by mail.
COURTESY EMERSON COLLEGE POLLING
On the other hand, Trump had to deal with his usual storm of controversies, both self-inflicted and scheduled weekly by the mainstream media. But given how reviled the media is, might it actually help him? Besides, “Art of the Deal” Trump just got three peace treaties signed, the economy is recovering from the pandemic despite riots, and Big Ten football is back on schedule in the Midwest. Orange Man... Good?

The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of national polls for September 16 has Biden leading Trump by six points. But on the same day, heretic Rasmussen’s weekly poll showed Trump leading for the first time - 47 to 46. And given Trump’s advantages in small states, the Electoral College favors him if it’s close.

Also on September 16, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll gave Trump the highest ratings of his presidency - 52 percent overall, with 52 percent on the economy and 49 percent on national security. These are all higher than President Obama’s ratings in the September before his 2012 re-election. Most people, it seems, want good jobs and world peace. Orange Man... Favored?

“Trump shows surprising strength among minority voters,” Rasmussen writes. The finding corroborates other polls showing his support strengthening among Hispanic and Black voters. It also explains the popularity of hashtag campaigns describing Democrat defections - like #walkaway, #demexit, and #blexit. Orange Man... Winning?

Smart gamblers saw this coming. A poll two weeks ago by the Democracy Institute, which correctly forecast Trump’s election and Brexit in 2016, showed Trump leading 48-45 overall, with a significant 49-42 lead in battleground states. Real Clear Politics and The Guardian both appear to have omitted that poll, and few media outlets other than the populist UK Sunday Express reported on it. Originally Posted by bb1961