Some simple facts. You will get the Chinese virus. Until ~70% of the population has been infected and recovered (or vaccinated against infection) social isolation will only slow the spread, not stop it. Anytime we come out of social isolation the virus will start spreading.
The virus has a fatality rate ~1.2 percent that means. So a little over 1 death per thousand infected. 1000 x .0012 = 1. ~ 330,000 deaths from this virus in the US REGARDLESS of whether we socially isolate or not. Those who die are predominantly >70 or have compromised respiratory systems. Those people should stay the fuck away from other people. The rest of us? Not so much.
Unless we all stayed away from one another, we aren't going to stop this thing, and since that's not possible, the longer we stay shut down, the longer it takes for the infection to sweep through the population. Of course, we're destroying the economy at the same time.
So is everyones livelihoods worth ~300,000 people? And those 300,000 are going to die from this anyway, we're just trying not to overload the hospitals. People are good with it for now, but come APR 6, I think the majority of Americans are gonna say F' that.
*That death rate is likely to go lower too since there are people infected that haven't been tested because they have no symptoms.
Originally Posted by texassapper
Good points, but not the whole picture IMHO.
I'm not an Epidemiologist, a doctor, or even a medical professional. But there is a lot more to the problem than pure stats on how many will be infected, how sick will they get, and how many will die.
A number used by the governor of NY - no more qualified than me or Texassapper - was how many ICU beds they'll be needing. He said 30,000 with 3,000 available.
Let's say he's wrong on the high side by 50% - that's still 15,000.
What is trying to be accomplished now is to spread that number out over a longer period of time.
If 15,000 people need ICU care in the same week, 12,000 will be turned away.
If it can be spread over 5 weeks i.e. 3,000 a week then the current capacity can meet the needs.
Make sense?