I Hate to Agree with Kissinger, But....

God Damn it, I do.. Reluctantly.

The Ukraine needs to make a deal. The War shows no sign of slowing. Russia is losing Soldiers, but not Will.

The World Economies are suffering, in large part because of the War. Commodities, food, oil. The sanctions are not working well enough. We tried, it didn't work. It won't work. It's time to make nice with Putin.

I don't think Biden's waiting for my advice, but let's do what Kissinger did with North Vietnam. Set up a phony cease-fire that allows Markets to operate again. Pretend both Countries got something. Let Russia have some land to save face. Later on we can do like North Vietnam did, re-mobilize and take the land back.. Maybe after Putin expires.

Right now we are mirroring the ''Vietnamization'' policy of sending arms and assistance to our ''Ally''. Let's learn from our past.. That policy was a disaster. And just like in Vietnam, other Countries are barely doing shit. Time for a surrender under a friendly banner. Tell the Ukraine we are out of blankets.

Right now we are mirroring the ''Vietnamization'' policy of sending arms and assistance to our ''Ally''. Originally Posted by Chung Tran

That has to be the worst analogy I've ever heard. The Ukrainians are infinitely more motivated and determined to fend off the Russian invaders than the South Viets ever were to fight their communist cousins from the North.

"Vietnamization" was a policy of gradually letting the South Vietnamese take over their own defense, thereby allowing over 500k American servicemen stupidly sent there by LBJ to return home. By contrast, the US doesn't have any troops in Ukraine. All the Ukrainians are asking us to do is to supply them with the right weapons.

A better analogy is this - just as the Russians (and Chinese) poured weapons into North Vietnam to make the US bleed and contribute to our ultimate defeat, we should be doing the exact same thing to Russia. Fuck Putin. Let's help turn Ukraine into Russia's Vietnam.

And just to be clear, I was sympathetic to Russia before Feb. 24. But once Putin invaded, he crossed the line and earned the enmity of every principled observer. He's now a fucking war criminal and a pariah. I don't see any return to business as usual as long as that delusional miscalculating thug remains in power.

That has to be the worst analogy I've ever heard. The Ukrainians are infinitely more motivated and determined to fend off the Russian invaders than the South Viets ever were to fight their communist cousins from the North.

"Vietnamization" was a policy of gradually letting the South Vietnamese take over their own defense, thereby allowing over 500k American servicemen stupidly sent there by LBJ to return home. By contrast, the US doesn't have any troops in Ukraine. All the Ukrainians are asking us to do is to send them the right weapons.

A better analogy is this - just as the Russians (and Chinese) poured weapons into North Vietnam to make the US bleed and contribute to our ultimate defeat, we should be doing the same thing to Russia. Fuck Putin. Let's help turn Ukraine into Russia's Vietnam. Originally Posted by lustylad

kind of like afghanistan with the soviet union.

God Damn it, I do.. Reluctantly.

The Ukraine needs to make a deal. The War shows no sign of slowing. Russia is losing Soldiers, but not Will.

The World Economies are suffering, in large part because of the War. Commodities, food, oil. The sanctions are not working well enough. We tried, it didn't work. It won't work. It's time to make nice with Putin.

I don't think Biden's waiting for my advice, but let's do what Kissinger did with North Vietnam. Set up a phony cease-fire that allows Markets to operate again. Pretend both Countries got something. Let Russia have some land to save face. Later on we can do like North Vietnam did, re-mobilize and take the land back.. Maybe after Putin expires.

Right now we are mirroring the ''Vietnamization'' policy of sending arms and assistance to our ''Ally''. Let's learn from our past.. That policy was a disaster. And just like in Vietnam, other Countries are barely doing shit. Time for a surrender under a friendly banner. Tell the Ukraine we are out of blankets. Originally Posted by Chung Tran

you're splitting the difference with kissinger?

no i don't care CT says he has me on ignore. since i agree with him and Henry K someone quote me. lol.


Zelensky needs to cut a deal. that's been looming for awhile. Ukraine has little chance to outlast Russia's superior resources even if reports of Russia's losses are accurate and their shocking under-performance on the ground which has caught the west's analysts off guard. this is mainly why the West and Biden has tried to prolong the war in hopes Russia will quit like they eventually did in Afghanistan. problem is that took a decade and decimated Afghanistan. it will do the same in Ukraine. Russia proper hasn't suffered one single loss of any cities or anything else. Ukraine is already a wasteland and getting worse.


it appears Russia isn't even suffering much economically from sanctions. the ruble didn't collapse. it's actually up last i heard. Russia is rebranding all those Mickey D's and KFC's. i wonder if those companies expected that and most important do they have the cash to eat the loss of all those outlets? they lose the profits but of course they no longer have the expenses. est case they break even. worst case the loss of profits bites them some. they have deep pockets so they can just raise the price of a Big Mac and a bucket of chicken in the US to cover it.


which means CT is right this is hurting the US more than Russia. so cut a deal and end it. the whole east of Ukraine wants to be part of Russia anyway and Ukraine has had almost a decade to suppress that and failed. they have no chance now with Russia in the east in full force.


Zelensky needs to cut a deal and save the bulk of Ukraine as a independent nation. Putin will allow that. he gets mostly what he wanted.


why Henry is right ..


A Judgment Day Is Coming for Zelensky

https://www.yahoo.com/news/judgment-...040346573.html

Shannon Vavra
Sat, June 11, 2022 at 11:03 PM



Photo Illustration by Elizabeth Brockway/The Daily Beast/Getty


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his advisers have been arguing in recent days that they don’t want to cede any territory to Russia in the ongoing war in Ukraine. And though that view is widely held in Ukraine, they could be trapping themselves in political quicksand.


Zelensky’s position, which he and his advisers have repeated countless times, is well-supported throughout the country, to be sure. Ukrainians overwhelmingly don’t want to give up any land to Russia—82 percent of Ukrainians are against it, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology poll conducted in May.


Zelensky has said Ukrainian fighters are capable of pushing back Russian forces, and even suggested they want to push Russia back to not just pre-February 2022 bounds, but wind the clock all the way back to before Russia’s incursion in 2014, as well.


But if Zelensky and his advisers have to one day confront the realities of the war and actually approach a negotiation table once more and consider—or make—territorial concessions, that could leave Zelensky on the precipice of political turmoil, according to Steven Pifer, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine.


“Zelensky is going to have to make some really difficult decisions between what kind of concessions to make versus protecting positions of principle, and what kind of concessions he might want to make that could be acceptable to the Ukrainian public,” Pifer told The Daily Beast. “I think that’s going to be a really, really hard decision if they get to a point in a negotiation.”



Smoke rises from a Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces, on the side of a road in Lugansk region on February 26, 2022. NATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty

And yet, Zelensky knows it’s a matter of when, not if, he’ll be back at the negotiating table. Zelensky said last week he thinks the war will be decided on the battlefield, but admitted eventually he will be trying to make a deal once more.


“Victory must be achieved on the battlefield,” Zelensky said. But “any war should be ended at the negotiating table.”


Early on in the war, Ukrainian officials came to negotiations with the Russians to see if some kind of peace or deal could be reached. But Zelensky’s choice to entertain the idea that Ukraine could reach a deal with Russians has been met with reproach from Ukrainians questioning his judgment.


As the war has raged on and Ukrainians have fallen victim to Russian atrocities, Ukrainians are only likely digging their heels in.


“The attitudes have hardened in Ukraine, both in the government and among the people, and so even if Zelensky wanted to make some of the concessions he might have been considering 10 or 11 weeks ago, I'm not sure that the Ukrainian population would accept that now,” Pifer said.


The consequences for Zelensky could play out in a number of ways. Politically, Zelensky’s standing has been shape-shifting since the beginning of his time in office. Before Putin invaded Ukraine in February, his domestic approval ratings were tanked. Even in the buildup to the invasion, world leaders questioned his judgment when he sought to deny the seriousness of Putin’s plans for Ukraine and didn’t call up his reserves quickly enough.


But when the war began, Zelensky met the moment, breaking out into the streets and fighting alongside his citizens. He became a people’s president.


And although he has his finger on the pulse of the Ukrainian people and the state of their resolve to beat back Russia, it’s not clear how long the afterglow of wartime political hero will last, especially when he has to start making decisions that are politically fraught in reaching a real peace. And if Zelensky even approaches a negotiating table, his political future might be shot, according to Orysia Lutsevych, the head of the Ukraine Forum in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House.


“This could actually be the beginning of the end of Zelensky’s popularity if he goes into negotiations,” Lutsevych said. “He has a very fine line to walk when there is some kind of negotiated settlement.”



A residential building damaged by a missile on February 25, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine.Pierre Crom/Getty

Entering political negotiations with Russia at this point would be akin to political suicide, agreed Olena Lennon, adjunct professor of Political Science and National Security at University of New Haven.


“If Zelensky started making concessions now, he knows full well where the public opinion is and that there would be a backlash. It would be the end of his career,” Lennon said, suggesting that a class of veterans might bubble up to challenge Zelensky. “If he were to make any concessions, there would be a massive social movement against it.”


In addition to any social or political movement against negotiations, given how invested Ukrainian fighters have been in the war, and how laser-focused they are on pushing Russia out, if concessions were on the table, some kinetic fighting might continue no matter what Zelensky decides to do politically, Lennon said.


“Guerrilla warfare could become a real possibility if political leadership started making concessions to Russia,” Lennon told The Daily Beast. “Large numbers of Ukrainians have either joined territorial defense forces or enlisted in the army. Many more are armed and have military experience. So there is a very high possibility that Zelensky’s administration could be threatened in a military coup if they started making concessions to Russia.”


The Biden administration, for its part, is trying to stay out of it.


“We will not push Ukraine to make concessions, and we have consistently stated that sovereign states have the right to choose their own alliances and make their own decisions about their security,” a State Department spokesperson said. “We believe it is for Ukraine to define what it considers success.”


“We are focused on giving Ukraine as strong a hand as possible on the battlefield and at the negotiating table,” the spokesperson said.


Zelensky intimated that the successes in this war must first come on the battlefield—wins that haven’t come to fruition just yet. Just last week, Russian and Ukrainian troops have been battling over the contested and strategically important city of Severodonetsk, just the latest back-and-forth fighting that could determine the future of the war.



A poster of Russian President Vladimir Putin is used as target practice along a trench on the frontline with Russia-backed separatists near Zolote village, in the Luhansk region, on January 21, 2022. ANATOLII STEPANOV/AFP via Getty

Zelensky is likely in a safe space politically now, as conversations about battles coming to a close and concessions aren’t yet on the table, said Andrew Lohsen, a former monitoring officer at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) on the Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine.


“Right now we're not at a point where any sort of Ukrainian territorial concessions are in the cards,” Lohsen, a former State Department analyst, told The Daily Beast. “Until we get to a stage in which Ukraine is really facing mounting logistical problems or the inability to actually field a competent, defensive force, I don't think we'll have much talk about territorial concessions.”


Ukrainian officials likely won’t be pushing for negotiations in the near term, because they still think they can push Russians back and are still concerned about giving Putin what might look like a reward for invading, according to Bill Taylor, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine who served as interim chargé d'affaires in Kyiv from 2019 through 2020.


“They don't sound like they're ready to have negotiations at this point,” Taylor told The Daily Beast. “They know that some Ukrainian territory can be won back on the battlefield, and they also know that some Ukrainian territory, maybe Crimea, is going to take a much longer time and they're willing to accept, I think, that it’s going to take a longer time.”


“Negotiation at this point would lock in the Russian control over portions of southeastern Ukraine,” Taylor said. “So the Ukrainians—Zelensky and the people—are not yet willing to have this because they don’t want to, a) give up claim and, b) they don’t want to reward the Russians for invading them.”

kind of like afghanistan with the soviet union. Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

Not entirely. There are important distinctions to be kept in mind with that analogy too. In Afghanistan during the 1980s, we aided insurgents fighting to oust a Kremlin-installed puppet regime. Today in Ukraine, we're supporting a freely elected government that remains firmly in power in Kiev.

I also think most people trust Zelensky a lot more than we ever did the mujahideen.

Not entirely. There are important distinctions to be kept in mind with that analogy too. In Afghanistan during the 1980s, we helped insurgents fighting against a Kremlin-installed puppet regime. In Ukraine, we're supporting a freely elected government that remains firmly in power in Kiev.

I also think most people trust Zelensky a lot more than we ever did the mujahideen. Originally Posted by lustylad

yeah, similar but important key differences.

Not entirely. There are important distinctions to be kept in mind with that analogy too. In Afghanistan during the 1980s, we helped insurgents fighting against a Kremlin-installed puppet regime. In Ukraine, we're supporting a freely elected government that remains firmly in power in Kiev.

I also think most people trust Zelensky a lot more than we ever did the mujahideen. Originally Posted by lustylad

fair enough but how long can Zelensky hold out while Ukraine is decimated?

eastern Ukraine wanted to be part of Russia well before this. yes Russia aided that but Ukraine had since 2014 to deal with it and failed. no matter how much aid the US pumps in what chance does Ukraine have to reclaim a region that doesn't even want to be part of Ukraine?



on the one hand Russia doesn't have a decade to wear down Ukraine like they tried in Afghanistan. on the other hand what would Ukraine be after years of prolonged fighting?

no i don't care CT says he has me on ignore. since i agree with him and Henry K someone quote me. lol.

Zelensky needs to cut a deal. that's been looming for awhile. Ukraine has little chance to outlast Russia's superior resources even if reports of Russia's losses are accurate and their shocking under-performance on the ground which has caught the west's analysts off guard. this is mainly why the West and Biden has tried to prolong the war in hopes Russia will quit like they eventually did in Afghanistan. problem is that took a decade and decimated Afghanistan. it will do the same in Ukraine. Russia proper hasn't suffered one single loss of any cities or anything else. Ukraine is already a wasteland and getting worse.

it appears Russia isn't even suffering much economically from sanctions. the ruble didn't collapse. it's actually up last i heard. Russia is rebranding all those Mickey D's and KFC's. i wonder if those companies expected that and most important do they have the cash to eat the loss of all those outlets? they lose the profits but of course they no longer have the expenses. Best case they break even. worst case the loss of profits bites them some. they have deep pockets so they can just raise the price of a Big Mac and a bucket of chicken in the US to cover it.

which means CT is right this is hurting the US more than Russia. so cut a deal and end it. the whole east of Ukraine wants to be part of Russia anyway and Ukraine has had almost a decade to suppress that and failed. they have no chance now with Russia in the east in full force.

Zelensky needs to cut a deal and save the bulk of Ukraine as a independent nation. Putin will allow that. he gets mostly what he wanted... Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

I'm pretty sure chungy took a peek at your post already, lol.

Your yahoo article makes it clear Zelensky can't "cut a deal" even if he wanted to. Public opinion is resolutely against it. The last thing the US should do is apply any pressure on him. Putin is a thug who will immediately sense our weakness if we start telling Ukraine it's time to negotiate with the invaders who are slaughtering their people. Besides, it's not our fucking choice to make!

And no, Putin's folly isn't "hurting the US more than Russia". Big corporations like McDonalds and KFC do only a tiny fraction of their global business there. Meanwhile, Russia's economy is expected to contract by a whopping 10% this year.

While you are correct about the recent strength of the ruble exchange rate, that reflects a lot of artificial factors such as capital controls, interest rate hikes, and the slump in imports. Here's a good WSJ analysis from May 27 (2 weeks ago):


Russia’s Economy Is Tanking but the Ruble Soared. Here’s Why.

Russia’s central bank lowers interest rates, making holding rubles less attractive

By Caitlin McCabe
Updated May 26, 2022 5:52 pm ET


Sanctions against Russia have pushed its economy into what could be the biggest decline in decades, but the country’s currency has gone the other way.

The ruble strengthened this week to levels not seen since 2018, making the currency the second-best performer against the dollar this year, based on a Dow Jones Market Data analysis of 56 currencies, trailing only the Brazilian real. The ruble has risen 16% against the greenback in 2022 and is up nearly 150% since it bottomed out days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three months ago.

Normally, currencies follow economies up or down. In Russia’s case, government efforts that limited selling and forced buying pushed it higher, so high in fact that it has started to weigh on the economy.

“I wouldn’t have anticipated this,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank. “But when you put in the capital controls, you’re not looking at something real.”

Russia has been taking steps to weaken the currency and the latest move might have ended the rally. On Thursday, Russia’s central bank lowered interest rates to 11% from 14%, making holding rubles less attractive. That sent the ruble falling 6.7% against the dollar.

Earlier this week, Russia eased a capital control that required companies to change 80% of their foreign-currency revenues to rubles. Now they only have to change half.

The Russian currency finished Thursday at nearly 65 rubles to the dollar, weakening from a level of almost 55 rubles per dollar this week. Still, the ruble remains substantially higher than the record intraday low of about 158 reached on March 7, according to data from Tullett Prebon.

Recently, the ruble has bucked a global trend of currencies weakening versus the dollar, which has been bolstered by rising U.S. interest rates and a strong economy. The euro has tumbled about 5.7% against the dollar this year, while the British pound has fallen 6.8%.

Economists and traders see the ruble’s recovery as partly artificial because of Russia’s policies, and partly as a result of Russia’s big commodities exports and the impact of sanctions. Besides raising rates and forcing companies to buy rubles, Moscow limited the amount of dollars that Russians could withdraw from foreign-currency bank accounts and barred banks from selling foreign currencies to customers.

The combination of sanctions, which tanked imports, and Russia’s commodity exports, which were boosted by high prices, gave the ruble further upward momentum. Russia also demanded European nations pay for natural gas in rubles.

Those efforts came at a cost. The central bank doubled its key interest rate to 20% in the immediate aftermath of the war, essentially rewarding people for holding rubles, but putting further pressure on the economy. Thursday’s rate cut was the central bank’s third since it raised rates.

The ruble has bucked a global trend of currencies weakening versus the dollar.

A strong currency typically provides benefits to countries, including pushing down inflation and making imports cheaper. But the sanctions against Russia have scrambled the usual dynamics. Russia can’t import much because of the sanctions.

Inflation in Russia is also surging due to shortages, with food prices rising by one-fifth compared with a year ago. Russian workers’ wages aren’t keeping pace, with real disposable incomes down 1.2% in the first three months of 2022 compared with a year before. Economists expect the Russian economy to contract by around 10% this year.

Meanwhile, the strong ruble threatens to hit the country’s budget by reducing the value of oil-and-gas tax revenues that are denominated in dollars.

Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, says with Russian energy companies converting foreign-currency payments into rubles, the stronger currency means “you are getting fewer rubles per dollar.”

“From a public-finance perspective, all else equal, a strong ruble depresses the local currency value of gas revenues that are recorded in the budget,” he said. “This comes at the same time that Russia is facing other pressures, from the cost of the war in Ukraine to increased social spending.”

Before Thursday, Russia’s maneuvers to weaken the ruble had limited impact. Thursday’s rate cut, however, sent the ruble solidly lower for the week. Market watchers say the future path of the outlook for the ruble is harder to glean.

Many note that few investors are trading the ruble. Richard Benson, co-chief investment officer at Millennium Global Investments Ltd., a London-based currency fund manager, said the company made a decision after the invasion that it didn’t want to trade the currency. Many clients soon after called and asked for the firm to not trade it based on ESG, or environmental, social and governance, reasons.

Ruble trading volumes have also been difficult to discern. After the war broke out, the ruble market split to have one value within Russia and another on international markets. After the war, many Western banks stopped providing electronic quotes to buy and sell the ruble.

“The list of arguments for not trading the ruble is a long one,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, noting ongoing capital controls and sanctions. “Do I think this makes sense economically speaking for the ruble to be trading stronger than where it was before the invasion? No.”

If Russia wants the currency to fall further, “they could just liberalize capital flows and this thing would weaken drastically,” Mr. Brooks said. “Of course, they won’t do that.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ng-11653559916

how long can Zelensky hold out while Ukraine is decimated?

eastern Ukraine wanted to be part of Russia well before this. yes Russia aided that but Ukraine had since 2014 to deal with it and failed. no matter how much aid the US pumps in what chance does Ukraine have to reclaim a region that doesn't even want to be part of Ukraine?

on the one hand Russia doesn't have a decade to wear down Ukraine like they tried in Afghanistan. on the other hand what would Ukraine be after years of prolonged fighting? Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

You need to take that last thought a step further - even if Putin seizes and occupies a land corridor connecting Russia to Crimea and sealing off the Azov Sea, what good will it be if port cities like Mariupol have been razed to rubble and are unable to rebuild & reopen because they are under constant guerilla attacks by underground Ukrainian nationalists?

I think you exaggerate the degree of support for Russia in eastern Ukraine. Many ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking residents in and around the Donbas don't support Putin's invasion. It's hard to gauge with a war going on. There are reports that many mayors and key officials in contested cities cast their lot with Zelensky's forces.

Right now the reason why the Russians are making gains in the east is because they are firing 10 times as much artillery as Ukraine can hurl back at them. Where the fuck are those M777 Howitzers and HIMARS that Biden promised to send?

I'm pretty sure chungy took a peek at your post already, Waco.

You posted a yahoo article that makes it clear Zelensky can't "cut a deal" even if he wanted to. Public opinion is resolutely against it. The last thing the US should do is apply any pressure on him. Putin is a thug who will immediately sense our weakness if we start telling Ukraine it's time to negotiate with the invaders who are slaughtering their people. Besides, it's not our fucking choice to make!

And no, Putin's folly isn't "hurting the US more than Russia". Big corporations like McDonalds and KFC do only a tiny fraction of their global business there. Meanwhile, Russia's economy is expected to contract by a whopping 10% this year.

While you are correct about the recent strength of the ruble exchange rate, that reflects a lot of artificial factors such as capital controls, interest rate hikes, and the slump in imports. Here's a good WSJ analysis from May 27 (2 weeks ago):


Russia’s Economy Is Tanking but the Ruble Soared. Here’s Why.

Russia’s central bank lowers interest rates, making holding rubles less attractive

By Caitlin McCabe
Updated May 26, 2022 5:52 pm ET


Sanctions against Russia have pushed its economy into what could be the biggest decline in decades, but the country’s currency has gone the other way.

The ruble strengthened this week to levels not seen since 2018, making the currency the second-best performer against the dollar this year, based on a Dow Jones Market Data analysis of 56 currencies, trailing only the Brazilian real. The ruble has risen 16% against the greenback in 2022 and is up nearly 150% since it bottomed out days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine three months ago.

Normally, currencies follow economies up or down. In Russia’s case, government efforts that limited selling and forced buying pushed it higher, so high in fact that it has started to weigh on the economy.

“I wouldn’t have anticipated this,” said Jane Foley, head of foreign-exchange strategy at Rabobank. “But when you put in the capital controls, you’re not looking at something real.”

Russia has been taking steps to weaken the currency and the latest move might have ended the rally. On Thursday, Russia’s central bank lowered interest rates to 11% from 14%, making holding rubles less attractive. That sent the ruble falling 6.7% against the dollar.

Earlier this week, Russia eased a capital control that required companies to change 80% of their foreign-currency revenues to rubles. Now they only have to change half.

The Russian currency finished Thursday at nearly 65 rubles to the dollar, weakening from a level of almost 55 rubles per dollar this week. Still, the ruble remains substantially higher than the record intraday low of about 158 reached on March 7, according to data from Tullett Prebon.

Recently, the ruble has bucked a global trend of currencies weakening versus the dollar, which has been bolstered by rising U.S. interest rates and a strong economy. The euro has tumbled about 5.7% against the dollar this year, while the British pound has fallen 6.8%.

Economists and traders see the ruble’s recovery as partly artificial because of Russia’s policies, and partly as a result of Russia’s big commodities exports and the impact of sanctions. Besides raising rates and forcing companies to buy rubles, Moscow limited the amount of dollars that Russians could withdraw from foreign-currency bank accounts and barred banks from selling foreign currencies to customers.

The combination of sanctions, which tanked imports, and Russia’s commodity exports, which were boosted by high prices, gave the ruble further upward momentum. Russia also demanded European nations pay for natural gas in rubles.

Those efforts came at a cost. The central bank doubled its key interest rate to 20% in the immediate aftermath of the war, essentially rewarding people for holding rubles, but putting further pressure on the economy. Thursday’s rate cut was the central bank’s third since it raised rates.

The ruble has bucked a global trend of currencies weakening versus the dollar.

A strong currency typically provides benefits to countries, including pushing down inflation and making imports cheaper. But the sanctions against Russia have scrambled the usual dynamics. Russia can’t import much because of the sanctions.

Inflation in Russia is also surging due to shortages, with food prices rising by one-fifth compared with a year ago. Russian workers’ wages aren’t keeping pace, with real disposable incomes down 1.2% in the first three months of 2022 compared with a year before. Economists expect the Russian economy to contract by around 10% this year.

Meanwhile, the strong ruble threatens to hit the country’s budget by reducing the value of oil-and-gas tax revenues that are denominated in dollars.

Jason Tuvey, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, says with Russian energy companies converting foreign-currency payments into rubles, the stronger currency means “you are getting fewer rubles per dollar.”

“From a public-finance perspective, all else equal, a strong ruble depresses the local currency value of gas revenues that are recorded in the budget,” he said. “This comes at the same time that Russia is facing other pressures, from the cost of the war in Ukraine to increased social spending.”

Before Thursday, Russia’s maneuvers to weaken the ruble had limited impact. Thursday’s rate cut, however, sent the ruble solidly lower for the week. Market watchers say the future path of the outlook for the ruble is harder to glean.

Many note that few investors are trading the ruble. Richard Benson, co-chief investment officer at Millennium Global Investments Ltd., a London-based currency fund manager, said the company made a decision after the invasion that it didn’t want to trade the currency. Many clients soon after called and asked for the firm to not trade it based on ESG, or environmental, social and governance, reasons.

Ruble trading volumes have also been difficult to discern. After the war broke out, the ruble market split to have one value within Russia and another on international markets. After the war, many Western banks stopped providing electronic quotes to buy and sell the ruble.

“The list of arguments for not trading the ruble is a long one,” said Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, noting ongoing capital controls and sanctions. “Do I think this makes sense economically speaking for the ruble to be trading stronger than where it was before the invasion? No.”

If Russia wants the currency to fall further, “they could just liberalize capital flows and this thing would weaken drastically,” Mr. Brooks said. “Of course, they won’t do that.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russias...ng-11653559916 Originally Posted by lustylad

if you look at this in terms of who can win an economic war the US has the advantage. Russia for all its vast size seems unable to do anything except produce oil. strange. their economy is a flyspeck compared to ours, obviously.


while this has parallels to the 80's with inflation under Reagan who fixed that the current "leader" Biden i have little faith in. he'll exacerbate inflation rather than bring it under control.


i simply do not trust Biden. he could fuck up a wet dream. Obama said so lol. and i don't trust who's whispering into his ear piece. or his teleprompter.


beyond the economics you could see Zelensky playing the waiting game because of Russia's piss poor military performance which few if any expected and then there is the real possibility that Putin will drop dead soon. but who succeeds him? and as the body bags mount in Moscow does the russkie populace who have generally been lied to about the "success" in Ukraine turn on Vlad?


at the end of the day Ukraine means nothing to the US and i simply don't trust Biden and the neocons pulling his strings. that's why i want this war to end before it gets really ugly and not for Ukraine for the US with Brandon in charge.

[snip]

Right now the reason why the Russians are making gains in the east is because they are firing 10 times as much artillery as Ukraine can hurl back at them. Where the fuck are those M777 Howitzers and HIMARS that Biden promised to send? Originally Posted by lustylad

those U.S and European howitzers are in the field. they have certainly impacted the battlefield, but just not enough of them to make a major difference.

LOL. This was a done deal as soon as it started. The Russians have still not mobilized and are therefor fighting in at a deliberate disadvantage. They are fighting in a manner that deliberately reduces civilian deaths (yeah there's be a lot more if the Ruskies went all in). This has never been strategically important to US interests (other than the morons that wanted to keep expanding NATO).

We should stop supporting one side and work to broker a peace deal. That's what we always should have done but hey... we needed to distract the populace from the revelations about the COVID Vaxx impact and lies surrounding the mandates.

Next up: Monkey Pox and a Trump indictment.

Bonus events include rioting over random Black criminal getting a taxpayer relief bullet to the head.

It took this long to figure this out? They should’ve struck a deal before it started.