Control of the Senate will hinge on three states, Montana, Ohio and Arizona.
In Ohio, Trump supported Bernie Moreno over Matt Dolan. Matt Dolan probably would beat the Democratic incumbent, Sherrod Brown, in a general election. With Moreno, it's a toss up.
In Arizona, Kyrsten Sinema has withdrawn from the race. While Sinema was a Democrat for most of the time she was in the Senate, she and Joe Manchin were bulwarks against some of Biden's crazier proposals. The Democratic candidate this year, Ruben Gallego, is in the mold of Elizabeth Warren or AOC. He's very beatable in a purple state like Arizona. Unfortunately the Republican candidate will be Trump acolyte and election denier Kari Lake. Gallego is favored to win.
This looks like a repeat of 2022, when a number of Trump's favored candidates lost elections. Democrats at the time spent around $40 million during the primary season boosting prospects for Trump endorsees, knowing they were weak general election candidates. They did the same thing this year, helping Moreno over Dolan in the Ohio race.
And then there were the 2021 Senate runoffs in Georgia, when Trump's election denialism and lukewarm support cost Republicans control of the Senate.
Loyalty to Trump, including defending him for trying to overturn the 2020 election, should not be the primary criterion for selecting Congressional candidates. That's a recipe for making America a one party (Democratic Party) state.
This thread is dedicated to Salty, who made me think about this.