By 1960, the homeownership rate was already over 60%, yet debt-to-value was less than 30%, half of the current value. Even in 1990, when homeownership reached over 64%, debt-to-value was still under 40%. From 1990 until today, the percentage of mortgage debt to value increased by over 50%, all to gain a 2 percentage point increase in homeownership. So it seems the story of the last 20 years has been a massive increase in home debt with very little increase in actual homeownership rates. The converse should also hold: reducing homeowner leverage should have little, if any, impact on homeownership rates.
Originally Posted by pjorourke
An interesting conclusion. I have the same type graph, albeit didn't carry to the year 2010. I hadn't drawn that conclusion by looking at it...but it does make some sense.
Under the category of "the good old days" there are several other variables that have affected that graph...including...
1) S&L's and banks deposit interest rates were controlled by the Gov. As such, the lending environment was more stable for home mortgage rates.
2) In Texas, and maybe elsewhere too, you could not borrow money against your homestead for any reason other than purchase or home improvement.
3) The average life of a mortgage loan in the 60's & 70's was well over 7-8 years. By the mid 90's that life had dropped to 3 years. Partially, that life dropped because of refinancing at lower interest rates but also partially because people are more transitory today...rolling the equity gain in one house into debt of another larger house.