We often claim that we have or are headed to two Americas. One left and one right. Some on here proclaim a civil war is just around the corner. Some of us believe that’s a virtual impossibility. But maybe it’s not so improbable. This county has been vastly divided before. 24 hour politics news cycles and “see the news you want to believe that buttresses your biases” only makes it a bit worse. Many are just fine with confirmation bias as a way of absorbing the world around them, unfortunately. Shit many confuse opinion news as fact and believe that others opinions presented to them are statements of reality.
Could we end up back as a kind of loose organization of states with a severely weakened federal government? Initially I don’t really see a way that it could occur due to the interconnectivity of federal and state funding mechanisms. Also I firmly believe that poor states, mainly in the south, would quickly realize that this could only lead to their falling to extreme poverty.
Now, one of the things that kind of held us together was the thought that no matter what state one lives in, they are afforded essentially the same set of rights endowed by the federal constitution and laws. The supremacy clause ensured that states couldn’t circumvent the federal government or constitutional rights. Even though each state could lean left or right, they were bound to some constitutional center. But what if that weren’t the case?
The SC on Friday allowed the Texas legislature’s law (the abortion law SB 8) to remain in place. Forget abortion for a minute and understand what the statutory scheme is. State allows “non-state” actors to bring suit against citizens and businesses that either violate the passed law or abet in the violation of the law, and precludes federal judicial review as part of the statutory scheme. Now. In our hyper-partisan times this is a great way to get around federal law (I’ll get to that in a second). On its face, that means that a state can pass a law that abridges a constitutional right or law and the only remedy remains in that states court or states other guarantees.
Texas has pulled it off with abortion. Confirmed by the Supreme Court. California has began drafting the same law with regards to guns. I imagine we will see various iterations of the same law in various states throughout the nation as legislatures, previously bound by what we all accepted as enumerated and in enumerated rights, decide which rights they don’t like for their states. I suspect some state will go after gay marriage next since that’s an unenumerated right (would make for an interesting legal case).
What’s the overall effect of this statutory scheme? Since we live in hyper-partisan times, this will not be redressed by the federal government through congressional action. They couldn’t pass a law today even if they agreed on the content in order to defend the federal government from a state scheme to neuter the Supreme Court. And the laws that would be affected would never pass through congress. No gun rights bill or abortion rights or gay marriage bill could ever pass.
Well, since an individual or business can be sued for abetting the rights of people that they support, their options are pretty limited. They could try to vote in more people in the state legislature that agree with their view to change the law. But we know that is a slow slow slow process. Or maybe they could sue. But that’s a worse proposition because judges in most states are elected so they won’t be substantially different than the legislators.
People are left with moving to states where their belief system is supported. Migration from states where they infringe on the rights you hold dear to states that support those rights or infringe on rights you don’t care about could be a thing. Is that how we end up with two Americas? People going from state to state because the rights that matter them are supported there. Further creating separate belief systems amongst Americans. Furthering the enemy mentality.
The other factor that will emerge will be economic and business factors. Since businesses can be sued, they have every reason to pick and choose what states they will be operating in. Gun manufacturing will definitely have to leave states like New York and California, and possibly places that sell guns as well, just as an example. Companies that may have expanded to places like Texas in the tech field might see reason to leave to avoid lawsuits based in first amendment rights being effected.
Now I’m not saying this will happen overnight. Maybe never. This case might somehow find itself overturned when the Supreme Court gets a real taste of their position being relegated to nothingness by the states invoking a scheme that precludes the federal courts from declaring “what the law is”.
Here is the SC decision on the Texas law, well part of it at least. The scheme itself was allowed by the Supreme Court and as such, each state will begin to decide what rights they deem appropriate for their citizens and legislate accordingly.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinion...3_new_8o6b.pdf