Actually, enthusiasm plays a great deal in a political contest. Will your supporters get up, get dressed, leave their mother's basement, and stand in line to vote. Enthusiasm is not on the side of democrats in this or the last election.
Originally Posted by the_real_Barleycorn
You neglected to mention the 2018 midterm election in which, except for the 2 Senate seats lost in heavily Republican states, Democrat enthusiasm came to the forefront and Democrats crushed Republicans in the House, Governor, and state legislature voting. Record turnout for a midterm. Democrats won House elections by 8.6 million votes, the largest total victory in a midterm House election since 1974.
THAT is enthusiasm, motivated by voter's dislike of Donald Trump. That same enthusiasm will be there in 2020 in my opinion because Donald Trump will be there. But turnout only matters in at most 5 states because there are only that many states which will swing the election one way or the other.