Unfortunately Gfejunkie did what I've warned against forever -- used a single poll to validate his POV. Latest poll out on Trump approval rating? Trump -14 according to Global Strategy Group. Poll published yesterday by Monmounth University -- Biden +9 over Trump. Do not put your faith in a single poll.
So all polls are biased? Yet the overwhelming majority of them turn out to be correct in the end.
To reiterrate, the polls in 2016 were fairly accurate with a few exceptions at the state level. And the polls nailed the 2018 midterms.
One last look: 2016 polls actually got a lot right
https://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-bl...ot-a-lot-right
An Evaluation of 2016 Election Polls in the U.S.
National polls were generally correct and accurate by historical standards. National polls were among the most accurate in estimating the popular vote since 1936. Collectively, they indicated that Clinton had about a 3 percentage point lead, and they were basically correct; she ultimately won the popular vote by 2 percentage points. Furthermore, the strong performance of national polls did not, as some have suggested, result from two large errors canceling (under-estimation of Trump support in heavily working class white states and over-estimation of his support in liberal-leaning states with sizable Hispanic populations).
State-level polls showed a competitive, uncertain contest… In the contest that actually mattered, the Electoral College, state-level polls showed a competitive race in which Clinton appeared to have a slim advantage. Eight states with more than a third of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency had polls showing a lead of three points or less (Trende 2016).[2] As Sean Trende noted, “The final RealClearPolitics Poll Averages in the battleground states had Clinton leading by the slimmest of margins in the Electoral College, 272-266.” The polls on average indicated that Trump was one state away from winning the election.
…but clearly under-estimated Trump’s support in the Upper Midwest. Polls showed Hillary Clinton leading, if narrowly, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic for president six elections running. Those leads fed predictions that the Democratic Blue Wall would hold. Come Election Day, however, Trump edged out victories in all three.
https://www.aapor.org/Education-Reso...n-the-U-S.aspx
I am not telling anyone to trust the polls. I trust polls much more than the biased views of people on this forum. 2 polls in Texas have Biden even and Biden +1. Hard to believe. The polls, when summed up at the state, can tell a story. Trump believes in them. He has polls run by his team. What is most important to me is the trend over time in the polls. In 2016 the polls trended towards Trump as the election approached. Something I missed.
The only thing I've predicted concerning the race for POTUS is that it will be very close, closer than 2016 in my opinion. Some of my predictions is based on polls.