Don't Believe Poll Propaganda

This editorial explains why the recent polls, showing Romney falling behind, are fake.

By Dick Morris on August 10, 2012

I was outraged today when I saw a Washington Post article headlined “Three Polls Show Obama Widening Lead Over Romney.” One was a poll from FOX News that showed Obama 9 points ahead. The others were surveys by CNN and Reuters showing a 7 point Obama lead. NOT TRUE!

Click Here to read the Washington Post article I am referring to.
The real numbers, of likely voters are found in the Rasmussen Polls which had Romney ahead by three yesterday and four today. Gallup, which surveys registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) has the race tied at 46-46.
There are several factors which explain the difference:
1. Obama’s voters don’t want to come out and vote for him. They are only lukewarm and are not people who always vote. Cynical and apathetic, they do not begin to approximate the intensity of the Romney voters or even of the 2008 Obama backers.
2. Black turnout is traditionally 11% of the total vote. In 2008, rose to 14%, providing Obama with more than half of his margin of victory. Current polls suggest a reversion to the pre-2008 turnout level, but polling firms that do not measure voter intention can’t tell that and weight the black vote up to 12, 13, or even 14 percent, padding Obama’s vote artificially.
3. Likewise with Latino vote which was 7% of the vote and grew to 8.5% in 2008. Their votes this time show signs of returning to historic norms.

4. Polls of registered voters tend to weight up the Democratic respondents, according their opinions more weight in the poll. That’s because their data usually shows fewer Democrats in their sample than in national registration figures. But, in weighting for party, they obscure the fact that a great many registered Democrats have left the Party, particularly in the past few years, a finding that is obliterated by the weighting.
The fact is that Rasmussen and Gallup both showed drops for Romney about 4-5 days ago when negative coverage of his foreign trip (itself a sign of media bias) tended to dampen his ratings. But both have shown a recovery since. Rasmussen and Gallup poll every day. The other polls are conducted over a period of several days. So the Rasmussen and Gallup data are a few days fresher than the other polls and reflect Romney’s recovery.
http://www.dickmorris.com/dont-belie...nda/#more-9417

The Ryan pick is indicative of Romney internal polling showing the electoral votes are lining up in his favor.

The Ryan pick is indicative of Romney internal polling showing the electoral votes are lining up in his favor. Originally Posted by Whirlaway

Yeah, definitely a non-polarizing, risk free, do-no-harm kinda guy.

Panic setting in.

Take your own advice...don't believe the polls...

Yeah, definitely a non-polarizing, risk free, do-no-harm kinda guy. Originally Posted by Doove

Paul Ryan is definitely not a "risk free" choice. We don't need safe choices. We need someone who will actually get something done. Business as usual is going to destroy us. Steady as she goes will take us right into an iceberg.

No choice is risk free. But really, the VP pick doesn't do much for you. Yeah, it might help Romney with Wisconsin, and it might solidify a few people here and there, but honestly, how many people vote for the ticket based on the second name? Hell, look at Obama's VP pick if you need some evidence that it really doesn't make much of a difference. LOL

Wisconsin is now leaning Romney.

Wisconsin is now leaning Romney. Originally Posted by Whirlaway

Whirly---If I am not mistaken, you posted a couple of months ago that "Wisconsin is now leaning Romney." WTF else is new?

Wisconsin is now leaning Romney. Originally Posted by Whirlaway

Is that according to polls that yhe thresd starter ask you not to believe?

Wisconsin is now leaning Romney. Originally Posted by Whirlaway

Is that according to polls that the thread starter asked you not to believe?

Months ago I said Walker would win the Wisconsin recall vote; that the polling data showing a Walker loss was unreliable.





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Whirly---If I am not mistaken, you posted a couple of months ago that "Wisconsin is now leaning Romney." WTF else is new? Originally Posted by bigtex

Months ago I said Walker would win the Wisconsin recall vote; that the polling data showing a Walker loss was unreliable. Originally Posted by Whirlaway

That might be what you meant to say but what you said was that "Wisconsin is now leaning Romney" as if that fact has some kind of magical, special significance.

The only thing that is especially significant is who wins on election day. If you add a $5 bill to how Wisconsin is "leaning" today, you can purchase a cup of coffee at Starbucks.

It does have significance, you can choose to ignore the fact that the last time Wisconsin went red in a presidential election was in1984, but is now trending Romney.

Obama is facing losing loyal Democratic states.

That might be what you meant to say but what you said was that "Wisconsin is now leaning Romney" as if that fact has some kind of magical, special significance.

The only thing that matters is who wins on election day, not three, six or twelve months earlier. Originally Posted by bigtex

You cant just make shit up BigTits, provide a link to the quote you think I made months ago......otherwise i have a bunch of quotes of things you said.