After all the Wuhan virus and city mayor and state governor led riots and violence in an attempt by DPST's to wreck the economy to hurt trump - America is resilient":
11:30 today -
Market DOW
28,066.70 ▲
+275.26
NASDAQ
10,976.61 ▲
+8.25
S&P 500
3,377.14 ▲
+16.67
Crude Oil
42.25 ▲
+0.31
Unless Lizzie, AOC and Bernie get control of the economy of America - in which case leave - Venezuela is coming.
Vpte Biden - the last vote ever in Amerika!
Originally Posted by oeb11
Yep. And this is why neither the Dems nor Republicans were in any rush to make a deal on more stimulus funds. Their donor class is doing fine now. They were only in a hurry the first time because the market was crashing.
Originally Posted by Grace Preston
If Democrats sweep the presidency, Senate and House, and if the market believes Biden's tax policy is likely to become law, then the market should go down, all other things being equal. The reasons -
A. Biden intends to raise the corporate income tax rate from 21% to 28%. If you do the math and ignore state income taxes, that's a reduction of 9% in after tax corporate income. Assuming the market continues to value shares on the same multiple of earnings, share prices go down by 9%.
B. Biden intends to raise the long term capital gains tax rate on high earners from 23.8% to 43.4%. So the high earners are going to be selling like crazy before 12/31/2020 to lock in the lower capital gains tax rate. This selling will depress stock prices.
C. The regulatory environment under Trump was friendly for business. This will change under Biden, and will cause some corporations' costs to go up, which in turn will cause their earnings and share prices to go down. Imagine the effect for example on the price of energy shares if fracking is banned.
D. OK, this is a more long term consideration, and people who are smarter than I am (e.g. LustyLad) might very well say I'm full of shit. However I believe deficit spending under Biden and a Congress dominated by Democrats may explode. The only way they can pay for everything they intend to do is to tax the middle class. The wealthy can't pay for it all. But, given politicians don't give a crap what happens after they leave office, or even after the next election, the good times will roll and the national debt will go up, even faster than it did under Obama and Trump. The Fed meanwhile has proven itself to be a huge Dove, with real interest rates negative or close to "0". So at some point you see inflation and devaluation of the dollar. Then interest rates go up. This increase in rates causes the earnings multiple for stocks to decline. Right now, when you only get 0.65% interest on 10 year bonds, paying 30X earnings for a stock makes a lot of sense. If that interest rate goes to 5%, it doesn't. Why_Yes_I_Do foreshadows what's coming here:
I'm glad they are far apart by 2.2 TRILLION. The Senate wants to get $1.1T directly to Americans (Trump just did that), while the House wants to spend $3.3T that is does not have for Socialist wet dreams.
Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do