Michael Moore says don't believe the polls, Trumps gonna win

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...lclearpolitics

Michael Moore: "Don't Believe These Polls," "The Trump Vote Is Always Being Undercounted"

Posted By Ian Schwartz
On Date October 29, 2020

Filmmaker and activist Michael Moore said don't believe the current polls showing Joe Biden with a runaway victory against incumbent President Donald Trump. Moore was shocked that in Michigan, Republican challenger John James is close in polling with incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. In an interview with "Rising" by 'The Hill,' Moore also noted that when Trump campaigns in Michigan he is going to counties that are not "Trump counties," but that went for Hillary in 2016.

"It's awful news that Biden is ahead by 7 points in Michigan and I have to fight against this constantly," Moore said. "I need to remind people that the poll back in July said at that point that Biden was ahead, in Michigan, by 16 points. Trump has cut that in half. Trump has tightened virtually every one of these swing states to the point where this morning Biden is 5 points ahead in Wisconsin. He's maybe 3 points ahead in Florida, 2 points ahead in Arizona."

"Listen, don't believe these polls, first of all," Moore said. "And second of all, the Trump vote is always being undercounted. Pollsters when they actually call a real Trump voter, the Trump voter is very suspicious of the deep state calling them and asking them who they're voting for. It's all fake news to them, remember."

"It is not an accurate count," Moore said of current polling. "I think the safe thing to do is -- this is not scientific, I'm just saying from my experience of being a Michigander -- whatever they are saying the Biden lead is, cut it in half right now in your head. Cut it in half and now you're within the 4-point margin of error. That's how close this is. That's how desperately close this is."

"When you see the Republican running for Senate in Michigan (John James) almost tied with our incumbent Democratic Senator, what is this telling us?" Moore asked.

"I've pointed out to people when Trump had the big rally 10 days ago in Muskegon, Muskegon County, or in the west side of the state on Lake Michigan -- only two counties go up and down in the state of Michigan. Only two counties voted for Hillary on the west side of Michigan in 2016. Muskegon County was one of them. Trump choose not to go to a 'Trump county,' because he won the state, apparently. He went to a Hillary county and had thousands of people there," he said.

"People keep asking me, 'what do you think's going to happen' because they want the Cassandra because in 2016, I don't know how many months it was before the election, I said that Trump's going to win and he's going to win by winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania," Moore said. "And that got me no free entrances to any casino. It hasn't done me any good. But now they expect me to know what's going to happen next Tuesday. And of course, I don't know. None of us know."

"I wake up with the assumption every morning that Trump believes he's going to win and that's good enough for me. If he thinks he's going to win then I think he's going to win," Moore said. "And I'm going to act every minute of today, and the rest of the day until I fall asleep after midnight. I'm going to be working to make sure he doesn't win because he thinks he is going to win and he is an evil genius. And he's smarter than all of us. And I know people hate to hear that and I'm sorry. To win the White House by losing the election, that's genius. I don't know know how to do that."

the fat man has spoken and he will sing tuesday or at least until after all the mail ballots are counted.

Who really knows? Half of us on this forum will be wrong and half will be right. I have seen and read so many opinions on who will win the election for whatever reasons.

The fact is Trump closed the gap in his approval ratings in the last few weeks and closed the gap in several battleground states. The only state mis-called in 2016 was Wisconsin. Only 2 battleground states in 2020 are outside the margin of error -- Wisconsin and Michigan. All others are ridiculously close.

What to read into the massive early voting? More voters in Texas have already voted than voted in total in 2016. Same for some other states. Favorable to one candidate over the other? Historically, more Democrats vote early than Republicans and more Republicans vote on election day than Democrats.

A couple of analysts have stated that we should watch NC, Georgia, and Florida which are battleground states from which we should get early results. If Trump sweeps all 3, the odds of his reelection become favorable. If he loses any 1 of the 3, Biden's odds of victory increase tremendously.

Who really knows? Half of us on this forum will be wrong and half will be right. I have seen and read so many opinions on who will win the election for whatever reasons.

The fact is Trump closed the gap in his approval ratings in the last few weeks and closed the gap in several battleground states. The only state mis-called in 2016 was Wisconsin. Only 2 battleground states in 2020 are outside the margin of error -- Wisconsin and Michigan. All others are ridiculously close.

What to read into the massive early voting? More voters in Texas have already voted than voted in total in 2016. Same for some other states. Favorable to one candidate over the other? Historically, more Democrats vote early than Republicans and more Republicans vote on election day than Democrats.

A couple of analysts have stated that we should watch NC, Georgia, and Florida which are battleground states from which we should get early results. If Trump sweeps all 3, the odds of his reelection become favorable. If he loses any 1 of the 3, Biden's odds of victory increase tremendously. Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

The reality of this election is that Biden is just a tool. Nobody is sincerely voting for Biden, they are voting against Trump. At that last hour Democrats that are truly American Patriots and care about the future of this country will grow a sense of awareness and vote for Trump. The DNC should be ashamed of themselves for propping up an idiot like Biden and deceiving the public into believing Biden is a viable future for this country.

The reality of this election is that Biden is just a tool. Nobody is sincerely voting for Biden, they are voting against Trump. At that last hour Democrats that are truly American Patriots and care about the future of this country will grow a sense of awareness and vote for Trump. The DNC should be ashamed of themselves for propping up an idiot like Biden and deceiving the public into believing Biden is a viable future for this country. Originally Posted by Levianon17

Another totally unbiased opinion. Thank you

The first votes are in!!!!

Two tiny New Hampshire communities that vote for president just after the stroke of midnight on Election Day have cast their ballots, with one of them marking 60 years since the tradition began.

The results in Dixville Notch, near the Canadian border, were a sweep for former Vice President Joe Biden who won the town's five votes. In Millsfield, 12 miles to the south, President Donald Trump won 16 votes to Biden's five.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...?ocid=msedgntp

A pollster constructs their polls so that they continue to get jobs constructing polls. Think about that.

i'm torn, somewhat

on the one side there's America to think of

and on that same side are the tears, anguish and lamentations of the media that would be so great to see tonight

but on the other side I also feel for the businesses that have to weather the resultant dimocrat riots and arson and looting

but the businesses have been boarding up in anticipation of dimocrat riots, so maybe they, for the most part, will be ok

so its not that much of a tear, just a slight stretch of a ligament

there's no better tv than the abject, crestfallen, chin quivering crying of the media

Another totally unbiased opinion. Thank you Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX

As if SR's Trump hate is no biased!!!

As if SR's Trump hate is no biased!!! Originally Posted by oeb11

And your promise to shoot your fellow citizens tonight is serious!

LOLLING!

BTW - what does DOTY mean, oebsy?

one old lawman said I never shot anyone who didn't deserve it

A pollster constructs their polls so that they continue to get jobs constructing polls. Think about that. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Absolutely no proof of that at all. Pollsters in 2016 were perceived to be very inaccurate and took steps to correct samples. Pollsters keep their jobs when they are CORRECT. Think about that.

As if SR's Trump hate is no biased!!! Originally Posted by oeb11

I hate no one. I dislike the character of Donald Trump and I have pointed out several times how I feel about his policies on the economy, health care, immigration, the coronavirus, foreign policy, racial issues, and several other issues. That is not being biased. That is analyzing as many facts as possible and deciding for whom to vote.

There are many people on this forum who will be voting for Trump and I admire their decision-making process even if I disagree with their decision. Eccielover, Dilbert, HedonistForever, and a few others come quickly to mind. Tiny I believe will vote for neither Trump nor Biden but again his reasons why are solid.

Others, including yourself, not so much.

its likely the pollsters will be completely shamed tonight

their methodology is layered with their own partisan suppositions

"Don't Believe These Polls," "The Trump Vote Is Always Being Undercounted" Originally Posted by dilbert firestorm

its likely the pollsters will be completely shamed tonight

their methodology is layered with their own partisan suppositions Originally Posted by nevergaveitathought

Both pieces of logic are operating under the supposition that the Polls are specifically meant to be informative.

The reality is that polling is a form of propaganda meant to demotivate voters either directly ("CA is a blue state, my voting Trump is pointless") or paradoxically ("TX is a red state, I don't even need to show up, Trump is gonna win").

The reason it went sideways last time is that it ended up paradoxically motivating Trump supporters because they tend to be more contrarian.

So the important thing is to listen to how the polls are being spun. That will tell you if the propagandists are afraid or not.