Don't start a war you can't win: rare earths

Back in Trump's first term, when he started the First Trade War with China, some of us here shouted the alarm that China had the power to bring certain U.S. industries and companies, including defense manufacturers, to their knees, by shutting off rare earth materials. Did Dumb Ass Trump do anything about this, to secure supplies of rare earth elements and magnets outside of China prior to starting the trade wars? How about Dumb Ass Biden, who continued on with the Chinese trade war when he came to office? Hell no. In fact, the first indication that the Pentagon had even begun to stockpile certain critical minerals came a few days ago:

https://www.ft.com/content/cd5244eb-...9-71ba0fefa057

The leaders of the free world and their advisors have less sense than posters on a hooker board. That's scary.

Now China's turning the screws. No more rare earths for U.S. defense. And what's Trump's response? Well he's going to embargo cooking oil! If we can't buy their rare earth magnets, then, by damn, they can't buy our canola oil! That's surely got them quaking in their boots!

I think the tariffs suck. But if you're going to impose them, you damn sure ought to be prepared for what the other side is going to do. So far Trump's been lucky in his second term, because other countries mostly haven't responded to U.S. tariffs in kind. So trade hasn't gone into a downward spiral like after the Smoot Hawley Tariffs of 1930. But that luck may be about to come to an end.

We gave away a shit ton in Afganistan.
Did the bloody work. Let other countries come in an exploit the natural resources. Rare earth stuff included.

Blah blah blah
I think the tariffs suck. Blah blah blah Originally Posted by Tiny

You think China has the upper hand? Did you notice what just happened in the Middle East? Guess who needs ME cooperation for fuel? Yeah CHYNAH.

Trump is going to convince China to stop buying Russian oil by guaranteeing them ME oil... that puts the screws to Russia to end the Ukraine war.

You guys hate Trump so much you can't see the forest for the trees... you think this is all about trade policy when its really all about global power alignment. Honestly I think only Trump could deliver it. I'm not a fan of him as a person but if he pulls it off... the guy will be remembered as a great statesman who was hated in his day by small minded morons.

You know as much about defense as anyone here. So how about addressing the subject? At such time as China shuts down the USA's manufacture and import of all products and parts with even a trace of Chinese rare earth elements, what effect will that have on the "global power alignment"? Yeah, with time the USA will be able to find substitutes for and develop its own sources of rare earth elements. But what's going to happen during the two or three or ten years while that transition occurs? Will China be in the catbird seat if it decides to take over Taiwan? Will the PRC military become technologically superior to the USA's?

Regards,

A Small Minded Moron

Its a Chinese negotiation chip.. I expect it to work out. The ChiComs are committed to taking Taiwan in 2027... that gives them 20 years to the ChiCom Centennial. The same amount of time they will need to bleed off global condemnation over a Taiwan intervention.

So right now we are jockeying for opening positions... The ChiComs are building amphibs at a breakneck pace... We're redeploying Westward. Just like WW2, its going to come down to our submarine forces... can we put enough Chicom vessels on the seafloor? I think CVNs will not be that decisive since we can't risk losing them.

We will do some long range conventional bombing... but keeping Taiwan from under CCP thumb will be accomplished by the subs sinking enough tonnage crossing the straights and to whether the Taiwan artillery can stay mobile enough to keep pounding the Chicoms on the beach.

Based on UKR, I see UAVs being WAY more dangerous to the ChiComs than Taiwan just because they are the defenders. Easy to send a kamikaze drone over the sand dune than it is to control across the straights.

Regardless of whether we can manage to prevent the ChiComs getting a quick victory, I think there is going to be enough domestic terrorism that the US as we know it, will cease to exist because of the financial strain.

Does that leave the PRC on top? Yes, if they can take Taiwan... Maybe/maybe not if they don't get it clean... if it takes 2-3 years to mop up Taiwan.

I don't know, I've no crystal ball... All I know is we are living in interesting times.


** As to the ChiCom PLA... I tend to think they are only going to advance so far as they can steal IP from the West. Not saying they aren't smart... but they tend to not be innovative. Mainly because nails that stick up in China don't get to change things.. they get hammered flat.

How is the Chyyyyyna's economy fairing these days?
Does the word teetering, best describe it?
Or does the word collapsing better describe it?
You decide.

Trump is going to convince China to stop buying Russian oil by guaranteeing them ME oil... that puts the screws to Russia to end the Ukraine war. Originally Posted by texassapper

That's not going to happen as Russia and China are allies. The best thing Trump can do is source rare earth's from elsewhere, strike a deal with China, and develop the infrastructure at home or in Canada for rare earths.

Its a Chinese negotiation chip.. I expect it to work out... Originally Posted by texassapper

Very educational, thanks. This is why I wish board management weren't so set on keeping threads on topic. If you'd adhered closely to that, you wouldn't have written one of the most interesting posts around here in a while.

"Rare" earths: Not as common as iron, but can be found many places other than China. I am hearing that it is the refining and manufacture of products from rare earth elements that China has managed to dominate .

Perhaps the developed world needs to look elsewhere to mine, refine and produce rare earths for industry.

You got to remember he band the selling 90% copper over seas a few months copper went from 5.75 to 4.00 spot and still between 4 and 5. I bet China like deal on low recovery. Just like got our oil at negative 38 a barrel of oil during COVID.

You know as much about defense as anyone here. So how about addressing the subject? At such time as China shuts down the USA's manufacture and import of all products and parts with even a trace of Chinese rare earth elements, what effect will that have on the "global power alignment"? Yeah, with time the USA will be able to find substitutes for and develop its own sources of rare earth elements. But what's going to happen during the two or three or ten years while that transition occurs? Will China be in the catbird seat if it decides to take over Taiwan? Will the PRC military become technologically superior to the USA's?

Regards,

A Small Minded Moron Originally Posted by Tiny

This was one of the best lines in the Forum I've seen.



Sincerely,

Just a smartass with political opinions.


Not unlike this guy:

That's not going to happen as Russia and China are allies. Originally Posted by CPT Savajo

lol... oh thats funny right there, I don't care who you are.

Of Guideline # 6 . . .

#6 - Respect the topics presented by those who start a thread. Attempts to derail a thread or change it's direction is referred to as thread hijack and will be discouraged. Attempts to guide a thread in the right direction are appreciated, while responses to posts which hijack a thread are not.

"Rare" earths: Not as common as iron, but can be found many places other than China. I am hearing that it is the refining and manufacture of products from rare earth elements that China has managed to dominate .

Perhaps the developed world needs to look elsewhere to mine, refine and produce rare earths for industry. Originally Posted by ICU 812

... Reckon you're correct, mate... And President Trump
and America are looking at Australia for assistance
with Rare Earth minerals and what-not.

Agreement with Trump and Albanese today...

... Now, I can't take credit for this - as I didn't suggest
this to President Trump (as I don't fancy Albanese and Labour)
- Trump surely did this agreement on His own...

#### Salty

I think this boils down to the following key question:

Which side enjoys "escalation dominance?" (That is, which party can continue to up the ante in a less disadvantageous manner than the opposing party?) Or, perhaps the more pertinent question is which side believes that it holds escalation dominance. For that side is unlikely to cave first.

Trump undoubtedly believes that we hold more high cards, and since we import so staggeringly much stuff from China, maybe we do. But we don't have the stomach for a hyper-aggressive, mutually damaging standoff, since there are elections to consider. Also, China seems to have little objection to opposing economy-impeding hardship on its citizens, as we saw during the extremely draconian covid shutdown when they shuttered large swaths of the economy and locked millions of people in their own apartments.

Back in Trump's first term, when he started the First Trade War with China, some of us here shouted the alarm that China had the power to bring certain U.S. industries and companies, including defense manufacturers, to their knees, by shutting off rare earth materials. Did Dumb Ass Trump do anything about this, to secure supplies of rare earth elements and magnets outside of China prior to starting the trade wars? How about Dumb Ass Biden, who continued on with the Chinese trade war when he came to office? Hell no. In fact, the first indication that the Pentagon had even begun to stockpile certain critical minerals came a few days ago: Originally Posted by Tiny

Marco Rubio certainly has been concerned about this, as is evidenced in the following interview from January of this year:

https://www.state.gov/secretary-marc...yn-kelly-show/

...At such time as China shuts down the USA's manufacture and import of all products and parts with even a trace of Chinese rare earth elements, what effect will that have on the "global power alignment"? Yeah, with time the USA will be able to find substitutes for and develop its own sources of rare earth elements. But what's going to happen during the two or three or ten years while that transition occurs? Will China be in the catbird seat if it decides to take over Taiwan? Will the PRC military become technologically superior to the USA's? Originally Posted by Tiny

As regards the question of trade policy vis-a-vis the struggle over global power alignments, I see both as part & parcel of the CCPs all-encompassing quest for global hegemony.

You think China has the upper hand? Did you notice what just happened in the Middle East? Guess who needs ME cooperation for fuel? Yeah CHYNAH. Originally Posted by texassapper

Certainly, and that's a key point. But as long ago as 1992, Deng pointed out that China has cards to play, too, when he pointed out the following:

"The Middle East has oil, but China has rare earths."

And they played their cards very aggressively in 2010 when they got into a spat with Japan pursuant to Japanese patrol boats seizing Chinese fishing trawlers near the disputed islands. Then Japan had to engage in some frantic scrambling in order to keep their car and electronics production flow moving.

We should have seen something like this coming many years ago.

Just this past week, Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton professor who appears frequently on Bubblevision, described it as "scandalous" that we didn't start building a strategic mineral reserve more than a decade ago. In the 1970s, following the oil embargo of 1973, policymakers created the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in order to ensure adequate supplies in the event of a crisis potentially affecting national security and military preparedness.

Shouldn't we have begun building rare earth reserve capacity a generation ago?