Context doesn't save you, fido. You said what you said, then claimed you didn't say it. You made me throw it back in your face. You lose. Btw, I only called bullshit when you insisted (unlike bambino) you were presenting “actual facts”. You couldn't answer because you don't understand how statistical methods are used to measure correlation strengths. No surprise.
Originally Posted by lustylad
I'm confused as to what non-fact you think I offered up. I gave you a direct link to where I was getting the information from.
Oh, my! Now you want to lecture us on the difference between a theory and a hypothesis?
I lecture you because you are wrong about it and continue to be wrong about it.
A hypothesis is simply an untested theory.
Incorrect. Simply testing a hypothesis does not make it a theory. The testing and observation has to confirm the hypothesis before it becomes a theory.
So what? There is no fine line to determine when a theory is “confirmed” or validated. That's what you don't get.
There is nothing I've said that suggests I don't "get" this. As usual, you attack a strawman. Just because there isn't a fine line between the two doesn't change the fact that some are clearly on one side or another. If you hypothesize something, and there are no repeated tests to confirm it, then it is clearly just a hypothesis. When something has been out there for as long as AGW, and has been confirmed by numerous different fields as AGW, then it is clearly in the realm of "theory."
There are degrees of confidence, not absolute truth.
Have you even been reading what I've been posting? A good chunk of this debate has been dedicated to me pointing out to DSK that gravity is not a "fact," but a "theory" just like AGW. Where have you been?
Based on the data, we can have more confidence in some theories than in others. Yet you stupidly think all theories deserve a gold medal.
Yes, it is the gold standard of science. Does that mean all golds are equal? Of course not. One year, someone could break the world record, crushing all of the opponents, and the next Olympics, someone could miss that record by 10%, barely beat out the competitors, and still win the gold. Clearly one gold was far more convincing than another, but that doesn't change the fact that they are both gold.
Not only that, but twice in this debate, before you tried to torture that analogy, I've pointed out that not all theories are equally supported. As I said "I wouldn't argue that the evidence supporting AGW is anywhere near the evidence supporting the action of gravity," and, as I already quoted in the previous post, "Considering how overwhelming the agreement among experts is about AGW, the reality is that it is probably far more "established science" than how to deal with premature babies." It should be obvious to anyone not desperately trying to twist my analogy that I understand that we are not equally confident in all theories.
You can continue to pretend that I said that we are equally confident in all theories, but you will continue to be wrong. If you don't want me to talk down to you, stop putting words that are obviously false in my mouth.
Seriously, you need to stop being a supercilious, condescending, patronizing asshole. Whatever you learned in 7th grade, you didn't learn it correctly or well. There is an old maxim - “the aim of all education is to teach you how little you know”. You need to take that to heart. You have an incurable need to look down on your presumed intellectual inferiors. That's part of the curse of being a libtard.
This is amazingly hypocritical for two reasons. In the last post, you were telling me to analyze the data myself and if I didn't understand it, how could I know it was true. My response? "Defer to the experts." Seriously, right after I say "I am smart enough to realize that I am not an expert on the issue and will defer to the experts in the field," you tell me to be smart enough to realize what I don't know. This is great.
The second reason is you just made the incorrect claim that "anyone can posit a theory." This is not correct. I corrected it. And instead of just admitting that you have no clue what you are talking about, you double down on it by trying to pretend that if I believe I have evidence for my hypothesis, that makes it a theory. lol
There you go again. I wouldn't posit a theory without including at least some empirical data to support it. So it would be at least partially tested. An intelligent critic (i.e., one who understands more than 7th grade science) would examine the data for flaws and weaknesses in the methodology. Sample size, data biases, adjustments for other variables, etc. A stupid and lazy critic would treat all theories as deserving of Olympic medal-winning status, without bothering to study the data behind any of them.
That's not how it works. Something isn't de facto a theory until other people disprove it. It is a hypothesis until your data and observations have been observed, reviewed and/or repeated by others. There needs to be a consensus that what you are putting forth as evidence for your hypothesis is legit. Basically, the argument you are making here is that anything is a theory as long as the person putting forth that hypothesis thinks they are providing valid evidence of it. Sorry, but that ain't how it works.
You bring up gravity to deflect from the fact that you are utterly incapable of explaining, let alone defending, what you call "AGW".
As long as you, or DSK or whoever else it was (cuteoldguy?) repeatedly show that you don't understand that there is no such thing a scientific fact, or that a hypothesis and theory are not the same thing, I'll keep repeating it until you understand it.
There you go again. Stop acting like a smarmy know-it-all. You've already been slapped down. A hypothesis is just an untested theory. What's your point?
How can you continually get something so wrong? Testing a hypothesis doesn't make it a theory. The tests have to repeatedly show that the hypothesis is correct. And that isn't even the only requirement of something to rise to the level of theory. I already gave you the wiki page, it gives a very basic description of the other requirements. If you want me to stop talking down to you, stop pretending you know about something you are clearly clueless about. . .and stop saying incorrect things even after I give you a link explaining why it is incorrect.
Why does a know-it-all like you - who claims to understand scientific methods better than anyone in this forum - have to rely on “experts” to tell him what to believe? Spewing out vague generalities doesn't win an argument... You only raise more questions - What constitutes an “expert”? Exactly what do these experts “agree” on? What is AGW? Are you talking about one theory/conclusion – or twenty?
You can't, on one hand, tell me to recognize what I don't understand and then, on the other hand, criticize me (incorrectly, mind you) for not understanding what the experts are saying.
You've been bragging all over this thread about how your understanding of science is superior to anyone who challenges you
No, that's not what I said at all. I said my understanding of science is superior to the people, including yourself, who don't even understand the fundamental concept of theory in how it pertains to science.
– why duck the chance to prove it? Surely you don't expect the rest of us ignorant fucks to wade through hundreds of arcane scientific papers that are intelligible only to enlightened scholars like yourself? Time to come clean, fido... are you admitting you're just too DUMB to dumb it down for us?
I've already explained why. I've tried in the past, and it just falls on deaf ears. I'm not going to reinvent the wheel when the real data and papers are already out there for you to read. Besides, explaining it would take pages and pages, which I am unwilling to write.
The reality is that the experts overwhelmingly agree on this. If you don't want to believe the experts, maybe you should take your own advice and realize what you don't know.
Huh? You're telling me the AGW debate has “little to do” with linking carbon emissions to global temperature rises? Seriously? Then perhaps you can tell us exactly what IS the salient scientific theory we're supposed to accept or reject! Which specific theory is so strong? It's obvious why you like to hide behind vague and unspecific bullshit. Otherwise you lose the argument.
No, what I'm telling you is that the theory is far more complicated than your question about correlation between temperature increase and carbon emissions.
Bullshit. Make up your mind. Either you're smart enough to read and interpret the data on plane safety or global warming (and explain it to others), or you're just as ignorant as you snobbishly assume everyone else in this forum is. Actually you're more ignorant. At least most of us know what we don't know.
I understand the basics of how lift works. However, I could not make a plane. Certainly one as reliable as modern aircraft, as there are intricacies in the field that are beyond me, at least without study and experience. On that, I defer to the experts that they can build a better plane than I. It is the same with AGW. I understand the concepts, have seen a lot of the numbers and studies that are convincing, but the reality is that it gets even more complicated. Without study and experience in the field, those parts are currently beyond me.
The difference between me and those who reject or don't even accept the consensus is that I am smart enough to defer to the experts on the details.