The Trump Economy

OK Fed cut interest by 25 basis points. Let's see what happens.

LOL. Yeah, nobody takes Trump literally and everyone knows he's inclined to exaggeration. I'm as familiar with the industry as you, and we both know the oilfield strongly prefers Trump, everyone from the rookie roustabout to empresarios like Harold Hamm. There are counties in West Texas that are majority Hispanic, and went for Trump by 50 or 60 points. People in the oil belt view the Democratic Party as an existential threat to their livelihood. Originally Posted by Tiny

Inclined is probably an understatement. I find it hysterical.

Look at the grass on this golf course. There’s never been grass this beautiful . Everyone is talking about it. People come from all over the world to see this grass. The Virgin Mary could have another baby on this grass. Fake news cnn said there’s dandelions. There’s no dandelions, not one, ever. I should sue them outta existence.

Not true. You probably got your numbers from a May, 2025 survey by the Dallas Fed. The survey asks “What price does your firm need to profitably drill new wells?” “Profitably” means with a rate of return. Furthermore drilling and completion costs continue to come down somewhat and technology continues improving. A friend told me he’s participating in a well with a 4 mile long horizontal lateral.

My friends who continue to participate in new wells aren’t dumb asses. Oil companies generally aren’t run by dumb asses. And they continue to drill. The rig count is 539, down 51 from last year, and some of that decline is because of longer laterals and improvements in frac technology. There’s been a trend for a long time towards fewer rigs, even as production has increased.

And there’s no such thing as a single break even price. Some wells are economic to drill at $20 a barrel and some aren’t at $150. When the price of oil goes down, fewer wells will be drilled in higher tier areas.

Finally the correct price of oil isn’t $85 per barrel. The price is a function of supply and demand. And OPEC plays around with supply in ways that move the price a lot.

The dumb asses aren’t in Houston and Midland. The dumb asses are in Washington D.C. and Sacramento. To circle back on topic, as Ducbutter said, deregulation by Trump helped the energy consumer and the oil and gas industry. Compare the national average electricity and gasoline price to an overregulated blue state like California. Originally Posted by Tiny

I was referring to operational wells vs drilling for new oil. Operational wells cost is much lower, new drilling doesn't make financial sense at the current price point. Just saying that drill baby drill isn't happening at a scale that matters when the price of crude is in the low 60s.

Inclined is probably an understatement. I find it hysterical.

Look at the grass on this golf course. There’s never been grass this beautiful . Everyone is talking about it. People come from all over the world to see this grass. The Virgin Mary could have another baby on this grass. Fake news cnn said there’s dandelions. There’s no dandelions, not one, ever. I should sue them outta existence. Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

... The grass IS rather GREEN there, mate...
In fact, even GREENER than grass! ...

... And speaking of "green" $$$$ - Stock Markets were UP
yet-again today... ... ...

#### Salty

I’ve read AI plays a big part in electricity costs. Apparently the equipment is ridiculously power hungry and causes demand to skyrocket. Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

And that is justification enough to increase the electrical grid in this country, regardless what the current admin says.

And that is justification enough to increase the electrical grid in this country, regardless what the current admin says. Originally Posted by Precious_b

with nuke power plants please.

or n-gas n coal

wind and sun life span is to short

Shades of 2018....

Under the Trump administration, direct payments to farmers surged to over $61 billion, primarily through two ad-hoc programs established in response to the trade war with China and the coronavirus pandemic. A significant portion of this aid went to larger and wealthier farming operations.


Today 2025

The Trump administration is drawing up plans to use tariff revenue to fund a program to support U.S. farmers, the Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing agriculture secretary Brooke Rollins.

"There may be circumstances under which we will be very seriously looking to and announcing a package soon," Rollins told the newspaper in an interview on Wednesday.

Rollins said financing the bailout with “tariff income that is now coming into America” was “absolutely a potential.”

https://news.yahoo.com/news/finance/...041538385.html

Dang...will this affect my tariff rebate check?
What about paying down the deficit/debt?

Trump

"We have a lot of money coming in. It's coming in tremendous numbers. There's a concept of making a dividend to the people of this country who have paid a lot of taxes and got nothing for it."

"There's a possibility. Primarily we want to pay down debt, but there's a possibility that we take a piece of it and make a dividend to the people."

Who qualifies for 'no tax on tips' and what counts as a tip?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quali...140315633.html

Proposed regulations
https://home.treasury.gov/system/fil...-8-27-2025.pdf

Among the jobs exempted from tax on tips are sommeliers, cocktail waiters, pastry chefs, cake bakers, bingo workers, club dancers, DJs, clowns, podcasters, influencers, online video creators, ushers, maids, gardeners, electricians, house cleaners, tow truck drivers, wedding planners, personal care aides, tutors, au pairs, massage therapists, yoga instructors, skydiving pilots, ski instructors, parking garage attendants, delivery drivers and movers.

The tip must be voluntarily given, so mandatory tips or auto-gratuities would not qualify for the “no tax on tips” benefit. However, tip pools and similar arrangements qualify, so long as they are reported to the IRS and voluntary. The benefit is not available to married individuals who file their taxes separately.

The bad news for here

The tip must be given in cash, check, debit card, gift card or any item exchangeable for a fixed amount of cash, unlike digital assets. And any amount received for illegal activity, prostitution services, or pornographic activity does not qualify as a tip, according to the Treasury Department.

The economy part

Congressional budget analysts project the “No Tax on Tips” provision would increase the deficit by $40 billion through 2028. The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation estimated in June that the tips deduction will cost $32 billion over 10 years.

... The grass IS rather GREEN there, mate...
In fact, even GREENER than grass! ...

... And speaking of "green" $$$$ - Stock Markets were UP
yet-again today... ... ...

#### Salty Originally Posted by Salty Again

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-equ...133254645.html

Investors withdrew massive capital out of U.S. equity funds in the week to Sept. 17 as they turned cautious about the market's lofty valuations following the recent rally through a policy rate cut by the Federal Reserve and rushed to lock in profits.

According to LSEG Lipper data, investors pulled out a net $43.19 billion from U.S. equity funds in the week, logging their largest weekly net sales since a $50.62 billion weekly outflow in mid-December 2024.

"The S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings ratio, at 22.6x, is in the 99th percentile over the past 20 years," said Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.

This is trump just buying votes with taxpayer money. Farmers are ok with getting fucked as long as they are being paid for it. Does that make farmers whores?

Shades of 2018....

Under the Trump administration, direct payments to farmers surged to over $61 billion, primarily through two ad-hoc programs established in response to the trade war with China and the coronavirus pandemic. A significant portion of this aid went to larger and wealthier farming operations.


Today 2025


https://news.yahoo.com/news/finance/...041538385.html

Dang...will this affect my tariff rebate check?
What about paying down the deficit/debt?

Trump Originally Posted by RX792P

This is trump just buying votes with taxpayer money. Farmers are ok with getting fucked as long as they are being paid for it. Does that make farmers whores? Originally Posted by royamcr

No, but it shows that Trump and co. did not learn any lessons from the 'trade skirmish' of 2018-19...where they spend essentially all the tariff income keeping farmers in business after cratering the markets for their products.

Also illustrates the fallacy of the claimed plan of paying of debt with tariffs...since the administration is already looking at cleaving off tariff revenue to keep farmers from failing again.

And that ludicrous 'tariff rebate' idea....


The U.S. has collected $161.7 billion in CY2025 tariffs as of Sept. 15 2025. Less than one month of deficit, never mind debt.

https://www.jalopnik.com/1972649/aut...-tariff-costs/

This year alone, General Motors says it is going to incur a $5 billion gross tariff bill, and Ford is right behind it at $3 billion, according to Reuters. That's a lot of money not going into the pockets of shareholders. For the time being, they've got some levers they can pull before foisting the cost onto customers, like asking suppliers or dealers to shoulder some of the load. I'm sure those discussions will go over well.

Automakers also have been subtly passing on some tariff costs to consumers without direct price increases, analysts and dealers said. For example, destination fees, which are essentially the delivery fees to the dealership, rose 8.5% for the 2025 model year, to $1,507, Edmunds found. This was a much more significant jump year-over-year than in the past decade.

I was referring to operational wells vs drilling for new oil. Operational wells cost is much lower, new drilling doesn't make financial sense at the current price point. Just saying that drill baby drill isn't happening at a scale that matters when the price of crude is in the low 60s. Originally Posted by royamcr

The bold text is dead wrong. The majority of new wells make financial sense or companies wouldn't drill them. Right now enough rigs are running to keep US production, which is at all time highs, stable. If prices remain in the low 60's, there will still be sufficient new production for a good while to replace most of the decline in old production. I'd wager the rig count won't fall over 20% from the current level for a good while if prices remain stable around the current level.

And Trump's Drill Baby Drill beats the Democrats' Fuck Oil Companies and Fuck Oil Industry Employees hands down. Compare blue California to red Texas. California once accounted for around 30% to 35% of USA oil production. As recently as 1986, California was 12%. Now it's nothing, even though there's a huge amount of potentially recoverable oil in place in the San Joaquin, Los Angeles and other California basins. California regulators have cut way back on the number of drilling permits they allow and have effectively banned fracking. The state intends to ban the upstream industry entirely by 2045. California production currently is 259,000 BO/year. That's nothing. There are single independent (non-major) oil companies that produce that much from Texas.

Take a look at the graphs and note the decline in California and the increase in Texas:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Le...s=MCRFPCA2&f=M

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/energy11/permian#oil

California production might not have ever taken off like it did in the Permian, increasing from around 1 million BOPD to over 6 million BOPD, but with the right regulatory climate I bet it would be over 1 million BOPD today.

The argument that production is going to decline a lot anyway because there aren't economic targets to go after in the USA, because the price is too low, is utter hogwash. Carter used an argument like that to create a nutty price control system for natural gas in his term. It turned out he was wrong. The USA wasn't about to run out of natural gas. Instead today it has the largest gas resource in the world.

... Too right, Tiny!

... President Trump is #1 for American Energy! ....

#### Salty

... Too right, Tiny!

... President Trump is #1 for American Energy! ....

#### Salty Originally Posted by Salty Again

damn right he is...for oil, gas and coal industry.
Maybe not so much for renewables...or for you and me.

The Trump administration has already added nearly $40 billion in new federal subsidies for oil, gas, and coal in 2025, a report released Tuesday finds, sending an additional $4 billion out the door each year for fossil fuels over the next decade. That new amount, created with the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act this summer, adds to $30.8 billion a year in preexisting subsidies for the fossil fuel industry. The report finds that the amount of public money the US will now spend on domestic fossil fuels stands at least $34.8 billion a year.

https://www.wired.com/story/us-taxpa...eautiful-bill/

Oh yeah...and in energy cost sharing...we private consumers get to share the cost of new electricity and transmission infrastructure with the data center owners, even though the new demand is strictly the data centers.


....still looking for that $1.99/gallon gas...