The Trump Economy

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Whah-chu got?

with nuke power plants please.

or n-gas n coal

wind and sun life span is to short Originally Posted by offshoredrilling

I have no problem with any of the above.

I think. What is "n-gas"? Never heard of that. H-gas, yes. I really like that one.

Coal, it is possible to have beautiful clean burning coal. You will have to scrap existing coal power plants and build redesigned ones that can greatly cut down on emissions.

Wind and Sun have been here since there has been a planet and an atmosphere. And it will be here when all petrol is long gone.

The U.S. has collected $161.7 billion in CY2025 tariffs as of Sept. 15 2025. Less than one month of deficit, never mind debt. Originally Posted by RX792P

damn right he is...for oil, gas and coal industry.
Maybe not so much for renewables...or for you and me.


https://www.wired.com/story/us-taxpa...eautiful-bill/

Oh yeah...and in energy cost sharing...we private consumers get to share the cost of new electricity and transmission infrastructure with the data center owners, even though the new demand is strictly the data centers.


....still looking for that $1.99/gallon gas... Originally Posted by RX792P

It used to be kind of fun batting down COVID misinformation posted by texassapper. He knew the subject and he wasn't repetitive. On the other hand fact checking you is becoming tiresome. You've probably posted the $161.7 billion figure for tariffs or a variation thereof more than 5 times, and I've explained why it's misleading at least twice. Americans for Tax Fairness and Oilchange.org (the source the ignorant Wired writer used to construct his story) are about as biased as you can get.

I asked ChatGPT how much state, local and federal taxes upstream oil companies pay and it came back with $50 to $100 billion per year. That includes federal royalties. For renewable energy companies, it came up with $7 to $12 billion.

The MSM uses a very different definition of what's a subsidy for fossil fuel versus green energy. If Biden increases the royalty rate on oil and gas from 12.5% to 16.67%, and then Trump drops it from 16.67% back to 12.5%, then the decrease is a subsidy in the eyes of the MSM and Oilchange.org. That's even though competitive leases offered at 12.5% will attract larger up front bonus payments than leases offered at 16.67%. The federal government may actually make more money with the 12.5% royalty, if for example the price of oil drops or the oil companies don't commercialize oil and gas on the leases.

Anyway using an apples to apples comparison, subsidies for oil and gas after giving effect to the Big Beautiful Bill are in the range of $4 billion to $6 billion for 2025. That's a small fraction of what the oil companies pay in taxes and federal royalties. And for renewables in recent years subsidies have been $40 to $70 billion! Compare that to the $7 billion to $12 billion estimated tax take.

Oilchange.org breaks down the purported $4 billion in additional subsidies from the Big Beautiful Bill here:

https://oilchange.org/wp-content/upl...mate-chaos.pdf

The largest component is the expansion of the 45Q tax credit for enhanced oil recovery. This is a modification of some of the corporate welfare YOUR party cooked up and incorporated into Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. Yes, it should be done away with. It should never have been introduced. Oil companies and others receive ridiculously high tax credits for sucking CO2 out of the air or isolating it from flu gas and injecting it into the ground. This is more pernicious than it sounds because the tax credit is so high that most or all of the value in some projects, in particular direct air capture, is from the tax credits. The projects would lose money big time if not for the credits, which can be sold at a discount to their actual value to any Tom, Dick or Harry, kind of like stolen bitcoin or mafia money before it's laundered.

The change the Republicans made this year was to increase the credit for projects that inject the CO2 into depleted oil reservoirs so it's the same as what companies were receiving injecting CO2 obtained by direct air capture and injected into aquifers and the like. Actually, economically, it makes a lot more sense to inject the CO2 into the oil and gas reservoirs than into aquifers. The pressure may be lower in the depleted oil reservoirs, and the ultimate recovery from the field probably will increase as a result of the CO2 injection. So while the Republicans are responsible for continuing this boondoggle, they're doing in a way that makes marginally more sense.

The second item on OilChange.org's list is reduction of royalty revenue, which results in a purported subsidy of $1.2 billion per year. I already explained why calling this a subsidy is ridiculous.

The third item is foregone revenue from delay of implementation of fines for methane emissions. How the f*** is delaying a penalty a subsidy?

The fourth item at $359 million per year is expansion of MLP's to include carbon capture, hydrogen storage and other qualifying activities. Now that the corporate tax rate is 21%, I don't see how this is very consequential, and indeed $359 million is a drop in the bucket.

And so on.

Finally, as to the data centers, what leads you to believe that in the medium term and long term, which is what matter, the $/kw hour paid by other consumers won't go down as a result of capacity increases for data centers? More capacity means more economies of scale. And the capacity being added is built with newer technology. Data centers typically consume power around a constant level, which lowers costs per kw hr for utilities. And data centers often pay for their own substations, etc., which can improve the grid at no cost to other customers.

Tariff collection source

https://www.politico.com/interactive...ncome-tracker/

The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model makes that easy to do, cleaning up and analyzing raw data the Treasury Department releases each weekday. As that data fills in this chart, it creates a staircase we can search for clues to how Trump’s tariffs are reshaping trade flows and how much money they are bringing into U.S. coffers.

Wharton? Isn't that where Trump graduated from?

Tariff collection source

https://www.politico.com/interactive...ncome-tracker/

The University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model makes that easy to do, cleaning up and analyzing raw data the Treasury Department releases each weekday. As that data fills in this chart, it creates a staircase we can search for clues to how Trump’s tariffs are reshaping trade flows and how much money they are bringing into U.S. coffers.

Wharton? Isn't that where Trump graduated from?

Trump in UK

“We’ve already solved inflation. We’ve solved prices,”

I suppose so...

In the four months since he announced his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs on goods from the rest of the world, inflation on groceries is running at 3.1% on an annualized basis. In Biden’s final year, grocery prices increased 1.8%.

The inflation rate for electricity over the past four months is running at 15.7% – more than four times what it was in Biden’s final year.

“Energy costs, all of it, air conditioning, heating, all of it, including gasoline, will drop by more than 50% within the first 12 months. Your bill will be less than half.”

delete

Why is it getting harder and harder to find a job?

President Donald Trump’s former economic adviser said tariffs are raising the cost of doing business—and it may just be making your job search harder.

Gary Cohn, who served as director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, said businesses are feeling the insecurity of rising input costs thanks to tariffs. And because companies feel they can’t raise prices for consumers, they turn to what they can control.

“The one lever they can pull to make sure they keep their margins intact is they can cut down on the cost of labor,” Cohn said in an interview on Face the Nation.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/finance/...160000790.html

Why is it getting harder and harder to find a job?

President Donald Trump’s former economic adviser said tariffs are raising the cost of doing business—and it may just be making your job search harder.

Gary Cohn, who served as director of the National Economic Council during the first Trump administration, said businesses are feeling the insecurity of rising input costs thanks to tariffs. And because companies feel they can’t raise prices for consumers, they turn to what they can control.

“The one lever they can pull to make sure they keep their margins intact is they can cut down on the cost of labor,” Cohn said in an interview on Face the Nation.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/finance/...160000790.html

Hope they're wrong.

On average, it will cost 7.6% more to heat one’s home once the temperature drops, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), but the increase varies by fuel type.

The steepest projected spike is for electricity (10.2%), pushing the average winter heating cost in 2024-2025 of $1,093 to $1,205 for 2025-2026.

https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar...ericans-study/

Perhaps a bit off topic

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that if New York were to ask the federal government for any form of bailout, his response would be "Drop dead"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said the U.S. Treasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina..."All options for stabilization are on the table."

America First???

Gold up 40% and the USD down 11% in 2025. Probably going to $10K+ in the not to distant future. It makes more sense to save in gold and silver rather than in dollars. It's a no brainer at this point. All fiat currencies simultaneously around the globe are ALL getting their asses kicked when compared to gold. Save your purchasing power and don't count on the mainstream media to inform you on a local or national level.

Perhaps a bit off topic

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that if New York were to ask the federal government for any form of bailout, his response would be "Drop dead"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said the U.S. Treasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina..."All options for stabilization are on the table."

America First??? Originally Posted by RX792P

My knee jerk opinion is that the U.S. Treasury shouldn't help either. How many times have people here on the left pointed out that New York is well off? But perhaps Bessent believes good behavior should be rewarded (Argentina) and bad behavior should not (New York).

I'd guess that the aid to Argentina would go through institutions like the IMF and would be in the form of loans, that may be repaid. I say "may" because Argentina doesn't have a particularly good record of repaying international financial institutions compared to other countries.

Perhaps a bit off topic

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that if New York were to ask the federal government for any form of bailout, his response would be "Drop dead"

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said the U.S. Treasury stands ready to do what is needed within its mandate to support Argentina..."All options for stabilization are on the table."

America First??? Originally Posted by RX792P

Meanwhile Trump's tariffs are helping out Argentina...at the expense of American farmers.

On Tuesday, Reuters reported that Chinese buyers had ordered at least 10 cargoes, with one trader putting the figure at 15 Panamax-sized cargoes of 65,000 metric tons each.

Beijing has not yet booked any U.S. soybeans from its autumn harvest, traders have said.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china...110558033.html

Third day in a row the stock markets are not happy.
Hopefully not a trend.