What The Fuck Is Happening To Bit Coin?

Guys, I get what bitcoin is, and its functionality. Miners are not paid dividends. They are paid to mine. Dividends are paid from earnings and profits.

You say it is like a stock? Yeah, I get it, what you are saying. But again, how do you decide what to pay for it? You keep ducking me on that question.

Bitcoin is down 60% in 14 months. And in a bit of a free fall as I type. Why?

Don't say ''it's a risky asset''.. No shit it is. Why would I buy it today? Is $30,000 a good entry point? Why? Originally Posted by Chung Tran
Just like buying any stock, watch the chart, it really isn't ever a bad time to get into BTC considering how high it will be eventually. It will go back up and probably at a much higher high than before. Invest money you know you wont need for 5-10 years and wont miss if you lose it. It shouldn't be your only investment like any portfolio. Put 10-20% into it.

Personally I invest in GBTC. Grayscale bitcoin trust has a large holding of Bitcoin somewhat equal to the market cap of their stock. Which of course fluctuates with the Bitcoin price.
The_Waco_Kid's Avatar
I was wrong in saying the blockchain logs who owns what. Bitcoin holders either individually or through an exchange have keys which are a set of numbers that coincide with which blocks they own... There are a large number of bitcoin that are lost forever because the keys were lost or discarded or simply forgotten about when the value was very low. Originally Posted by royamcr

millions have been lost due to people not being able to retain their crypto wallet keys


Man makes last-ditch effort to recover $280 million in bitcoin he accidentally threw out

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/uk-m...ard-drive.html



Miners invest in equipment just like any business with an expected ROI at some point. Mining hardware is getting more and more powerful and efficient so at some point mining hardware is replaced. You can still sell the old hardware, someone can still make money off of it but the value is diminished. Originally Posted by royamcr

correct. like used equipment of any kind, the gear still has value. right now, bitcoin mining is at the ASIC stage. at first you could run mining software on a PC. then the factors went up and people moving to high end graphics processors for their floating point numerical calculation capability. now it's ASIC miners (or you can buy a mainframe computer to mine, IBM would love to sell you one)


what is ASIC? Application Specific Integrated Circuit


a dedicated self contained bitcoin mining device.
Chung Tran's Avatar
Just like buying any stock, watch the chart, it really isn't ever a bad time to get into BTC considering how high it will be eventually. It will go back up and probably at a much higher high than before. Originally Posted by royamcr
I give up. You are a Fan Boy, and I can not persuade you. Watch the charts? Huh? I have been. This thing plunges lower by the day!

You are so confident. Never a bad time to buy it? April, 2021 was not a bad time, at 63,000, when today it is just under 30,000?

You are the Cathy Wood of bitcoin. Just buy this new technology and become rich. One Lemming after another bids it higher, then realty sets in. My shit has no intrinsic value. The Ark funds are down 80-90%. Because people realized the companies do not make money. You can not discount their future cash flows, because they don't earn future cash flows.

Bitcoin is in that group. It crashed before in 2018. Why is that? Warren Buffet calls Bitcoin a worthless Ponzi scheme. Are you smarter than him?
The_Waco_Kid's Avatar
The Top 5 Biggest Lost Bitcoin Fortunes (That We Know About)

https://www.cryptovantage.com/news/t...we-know-about/


Like in Robert Louis Stevenson’s famous novel, Treasure Island, a story about the search for buried treasure, there are some famously lost Bitcoin wallets. Just as there were pirates and ship captains with buried treasure. The difference between then and now however is that Bitcoin fortunes are buried in 1’s and 0’s. Not under sandy Caribbean beaches.


Michael Brown | Mar 4, 2022



How Do Bitcoin Wallets Get Lost?

Due to the nature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, all responsibility for holding and securing the currency falls to the individual holder. There is no bank or private institution capable of restoring lost passwords to wallets. According to the New York Times, an estimated 20% of all Bitcoin currently in circulation (18.5 million at the time of writing) is held in lost wallets. That’s part of the reason the remaining Bitcoin has gotten more and more valuable.


These fortunes are lost the same way people lose email accounts or old photographs stored on computers. Forgotten passwords, hardware malfunctions, replacing defective hardware, you name it. The potential for human error involved in holding carelessly is high enough. With this knowledge, let’s look at the biggest lost bitcoin wallet list:


1) Satoshi Nakamoto’s Wallet

Legendary creator of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, has a well-known Bitcoin fortune that they have been sitting on since the earliest days. There’s been much speculation about why Satoshi did this and why Satoshi exited the world of Bitcoin right as it started to attract mainstream attention.


Satoshi’s wallet contains an estimated 1.1 million Bitcoin, but according to a new report from 2020, it may have been slightly higher. It is still up for debate whether or not Satoshi will ever touch their enormous fortune. Such an event would certainly shake the foundation on which Bitcoin stands. Much of the myth, lore, and values that Bitcoin is built upon rests upon the mysterious, and seemingly altruistic founder who has yet to touch their funds. For all we know, Satoshi’s private keys could be buried, distributed, or even destroyed.


If Satoshi were to ever recover their Bitcoin it would instantly make them one of the richest people on the planet with tens of billions of dollars worth of BTC.


2) Stefan Thomas and the Lost Password

The tale of Stefan Thomas made a lot of headlines earlier this year.


The San Francisco software developer held an estimated $220 million in a lost Bitcoin wallet he simply forgot the password to. Stefan jumped on the Bitcoin hype train in 2011 and acquired 7,002 Bitcoins. Stefan held his Bitcoin wallet on an IronKey USB stick and without the password he had a total of ten password attempts to open the key.


Before turning to social media and news headlines for assistance, Stefan attempted eight times to crack into his own USB storage, giving password guessers just two attempts to crack the code. Stefan has since “made peace” with his lost fortune.


3) The Buried Treasure of James Howells

In a similar vein to Stefan Thomas, UK resident, James Howells lost his Bitcoin fortune of 7,500 BTC, when he accidentally threw away an old laptop, mistaking it for an obsolete one in 2013. The hard drive of which he had saved his wallet on. James offered the Newport town council a 25% share of the contents of the wallet if he found the laptop after being given permission to search for it in a landfill in the Welsh town. He also offered an additional 50 million British Pounds to assist anybody suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic.


The Newport town council forbade James from searching for the wallet, claiming that the licensing permit of the landfill forbids any form of excavation. In addition to the legal challenges, this would also cause significant environmental damage to the area. The attempt to search for the wallet could cost millions on it’s own, with no guarantee that the laptop could be found, or even function. James made an additional offer to the council after he had received offers from hedge funds offering to help finance the search, looking for a slice of the reward pie, but with no luck.


4) The Disappearance of Gerald Cotten

Gerald Cotten was a Canadian investor most well known for co-founding the cryptocurrency exchange, QuadrigaCX. This whale of a tale comes right out of cinema. Gerald founded QuadrigaCX in 2013, after graduating from the Schulich school of Business in Toronto.


On the surface, Gerald looked to be running an honest business. But behind the curtain, Gerald was acting as the sole curator of the exchange. Quadriga had no official bank accounts, since banks at the time had no method of managing cryptocurrency. The list of shady means of transferring funds and the inner workings of Quadriga only grows the deeper you look into this case. The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) put out a full report of the incident. In addition, WordPress blogger Amy Castor has published a full timeline of events tracking the story in vivid detail.


By 2016, Gerald had turned Quadriga into a one-man operation, firing all of the staff. Between 2013 and 2016, Gerald had paved the way into creating his own money printer and was creating tokens within the Quadriga ecosystem at will.


The OSC would later discover that 95% of activity on Quadriga, was conducted by Gerald himself using a false identity. In 2018 Gerald married his longtime girlfriend, drafted a will, leaving all of his ponzi scheme gains to his wife, and was declared dead by Indian medical authorities in December of that year due to cardiac arrest caused by complications related to Crohn’s disease. Cottent took the private keys to his fortune to the “grave”. His death is a topic of suspicion and it is believed by some that he may have faked his own death.


5) Individual X Marks the Spot; The 69,000 Bitcoin Challenge

Originally found in an auction on the dark web, the world’s seventh largest Bitcoin wallet, containing roughly 69,000 Bitcoins was stumbled upon by some creative hackers one day in 2018. Ever since then the wallet has changed hands many times, each time given to a hacker trying to crack into the thing with no success yet. Due to its underground point of origin, many believed the informal contest to be a hoax.


In September of 2020, Hudson Rock chief of technology, Alon Gal published a tweet relaying the information to twitter users after coming into possession of the wallet himself. Alon told Motherboard interviewers in 2020 that a common occurrence on hacker forums was to acquire wallets with large sums in them and then sell them to other hackers who thought their hardware was up to the task of cracking the codes. Hot off the heels of an article published by Bitcoin.com, the US justice department filed a civil complaint, stating they now had control over the wallet.


The report refers to the owner of the wallet as “Individual X”. Whoever this person is, is known to the US government, but not to the public. In order to audit the origin of the coins, the justice department hired the services of Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis company who discovered that Individual X is believed to have stolen a large chunk of change from the infamous contraband website, Silk Road. Former owner of Silk Road, Ross Ulbricht confirmed that he was aware of Individual X stealing from him.


It seems that Individual X had intended to sit on the coins until the situation involving the black market website calmed down. That, or they sold the wallet and offloaded their fortune, which had attracted far too much attention after the takedown of Silk Road.
The_Waco_Kid's Avatar
I give up. You are a Fan Boy, and I can not persuade you. Watch the charts? Huh? I have been. This thing plunges lower by the day!

You are so confident. Never a bad time to buy it? April, 2021 was not a bad time, at 63,000, when today it is just under 30,000?

You are the Cathy Wood of bitcoin. Just buy this new technology and become rich. One Lemming after another bids it higher, then realty sets in. My shit has no intrinsic value. The Ark funds are down 80-90%. Because people realized the companies do not make money. You can not discount their future cash flows, because they don't earn future cash flows.

Bitcoin is in that group. It crashed before in 2018. Why is that? Warren Buffet calls Bitcoin a worthless Ponzi scheme. Are you smarter than him? Originally Posted by Chung Tran

how many times has the stock market crashed? i'm down 120k. should i panic sell or stay the long course?



or better still .. buy?
I give up. You are a Fan Boy, and I can not persuade you. Watch the charts? Huh? I have been. This thing plunges lower by the day!

You are so confident. Never a bad time to buy it? April, 2021 was not a bad time, at 63,000, when today it is just under 30,000?

You are the Cathy Wood of bitcoin. Just buy this new technology and become rich. One Lemming after another bids it higher, then realty sets in. My shit has no intrinsic value. The Ark funds are down 80-90%. Because people realized the companies do not make money. You can not discount their future cash flows, because they don't earn future cash flows.

Bitcoin is in that group. It crashed before in 2018. Why is that? Warren Buffet calls Bitcoin a worthless Ponzi scheme. Are you smarter than him? Originally Posted by Chung Tran
Short term it would suck to buy at 63000 for sure. Long term 1-2 years It will be over 100k. Next "halving" is in 2024 which will increase the value probably around 2x on top of where it is at running up to 2024. The real question is invest in BTC or do you think the regular markets will outperform it. My prediction is 2024 BTC will be around 200k-300k. Bitcoin "halving" is like a reverse stock split, but not, however it sort of has the same effect. Overnight the miners make half the amount they made the day before the halving. This means to keep profitable the value of BTC has to about double.

Buffet doesn't need to invest in BTC. He probably doesn't understand it. He is old school.

BTC is like a fixed supply of Gold.

As for what happened in 2018, for a minute it topped at 19k and then fell to about 5k. That would have been a sweet time to buy. There are a lot of news stories around that time, here is one. https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidpe...l-crash-again/

The world wide situation will affect it for sure. Heck the US might ban it altogether. lol. Imagine the shit storm that will create. Governments hate crypto, they like knowing who has the money and who it is getting sent to cause they want the tax revenue. If it is somewhat hidden on a blockchain and not in banks, it is harder to see.
Chung Tran's Avatar
My prediction is 2024 BTC will be around 200k-300k.
BTC is like a fixed supply of Gold.

As for what happened in 2018, for a minute it topped at 19k and then fell to about 5k. That would have been a sweet time to buy. Originally Posted by royamcr
I'm not getting anywhere, but I'll keep playing.

Yes, it is like a fixed supply of gold.. It's like a fixed supply of dog shit, too. Just because something is in tight supply doesn't give it value.

Yes, 5,000 would have been good, in hindsite. If you sold and profitted. But the 19,000 buyers got fucked in the zero sum game.

Do you know how many fucking analysts I heard last November, who insisted bitcoin would hit 100,000 by year end? Legions. Pump-and-dump Idiots. Those Fools should quit, what an embarassingly idiotic call.

Now you're pumping it up. Let's say your prediction hits your lowest projection in 2024. That is a 700% gain from current levels. Why would you not plow all of your money into bitcoin? You said it should be just a piece of your investment portfolio. Why just a piece?

Because you are simply guessing. You have no earthly idea. Admit it. You pulled those numbers from the sky.

How much are you down on your bitcoin holdings? Be honest.
The_Waco_Kid's Avatar
The world wide situation will affect it for sure. Heck the US might ban it altogether. lol. Imagine the shit storm that will create. Governments hate crypto, they like knowing who has the money and who it is getting sent to cause they want the tax revenue. If it is somewhat hidden on a blockchain and not in banks, it is harder to see. Originally Posted by royamcr

the real reason blockchain open source but encrypted technology was invented in the first place
I'm not getting anywhere, but I'll keep playing.

Yes, it is like a fixed supply of gold.. It's like a fixed supply of dog shit, too. Just because something is in tight supply doesn't give it value.

Yes, 5,000 would have been good, in hindsite. If you sold and profitted. But the 19,000 buyers got fucked in the zero sum game.

Do you know how many fucking analysts I heard last November, who insisted bitcoin would hit 100,000 by year end? Legions. Pump-and-dump Idiots. Those Fools should quit, what an embarassingly idiotic call.

Now you pumping it up. Let's say your prediction hits your lowest projection in 2024. That is a 700% gain from current levels. Why would you not plow all of your money into bitcoin? You said it should be just a piece of your investment portfolio. Why just a piece?

Because you are simply guessing. You have no earthly idea. Admit it. You pulled those numbers from the sky.

How much are you down on your bitcoin holdings? Be honest. Originally Posted by Chung Tran
About 50% from the high, I don't have any BTC, just some ETH which has fallen the same. I'm going to open a position in GBTC soon. Maybe RIOT Blockchain...

The worst thing that has happened with Crypto is comingling it with the stock market. So now in addition to riding its own waves it also rides the waves of the stock market. Like Coinbase being traded, and similar investments.

I don't think my numbers are that far fetched if you take into account the halving. It is why BTC is trading between 30 and 60k instead of 10-20k since the halving of 2020.
Chung Tran's Avatar

The worst thing that has happened with Crypto is comingling it with the stock market. So now in addition to riding its own waves it also rides the waves of the stock market. Like Coinbase being traded, and similar investments.
Originally Posted by royamcr
Not following you. Surely you aren't suggesting crypto should be non-tradeable?

Since you mentioned it. Why does crypto follow right along with the stock market, specifically high-beta, no earnings, extremely high price-to-sales NASDAQ stocks?

Because they are the SAME THING. Speculative ponzi schemes.

If not, why does crypto go down hard like the stocks? Isn't it the great new technology, fixed supply, game-changer currency? Apparently not, huh?
Not following you. Surely you aren't suggesting crypto should be non-tradeable?

Since you mentioned it. Why does crypto follow right along with the stock market, specifically high-beta, no earnings, extremely high price-to-sales NASDAQ stocks?

Because they are the SAME THING. Speculative ponzi schemes.

If not, why does crypto go down hard like the stocks? Isn't it the great new technology, fixed supply, game-changer currency? Apparently not, huh? Originally Posted by Chung Tran
Because the same that can afford to invest in stocks can afford to invest in Crypto.

As for Ponzi, it can be similar. But it is more like an investment. When stocks sell off to cash so do cryptos and related products. BTC in particular can be used as a store of value, an investment, and a payment vehicle.

https://medium.datadriveninvestor.co...ng-a3dfc67c25e
texassapper's Avatar
Terrific. You told us how it works. Now tell me why it's valuable to me as an investment. Originally Posted by Chung Tran
For the same reason Tulips were a valuable investment... because other people think it's valuable. Gold isn't inherently valuable as a metal outside of some electronics applications, but we all buy and trade gold too. Is the USD inherently valuable? No, no more so than any other paper currency. It's only value is that we all believe it has value and that is the basis for trading it. Is apple more valuable than some random stock? Only because we think it is.

A cow has more value than gold... it at least can produce milk and can provide meat if needed. Put it's hard to carry a cow around in your pocket.

Blockchain has some interesting functions in shipping and logistics. I have some Bitcoin and ethereum, but less than 10K... mostly to pay for things that I don't want to put on Credit Cards.
Lucas McCain's Avatar
Terrific. You told us how it works. Now tell me why it's valuable to me as an investment. Originally Posted by Chung Tran
I'm not that heavily invested in Crypto because I'll tell you how I view it....

We are in the political forum so I'll use Trump as an example. How much is Trump worth? He is highly leveraged but he has assets. His biggest asset though is an intangible one - his brand (last name).

For those of you who have worked in M&A and executed the valuations that are necessary for the job, it is very difficult to quantify an intangible asset up or down when it comes to its actual worth because of how much it may fluctuate.

Anyway, I could go on and on about it but that's how I view crypto. It's not a tangible asset. You don't touch it. The market decides what it's worth. It's like asking me what Trumps's name is worth now. I think it would be fair to say considerably less than two or three years ago but I couldn't put a price on it because it is not tangible so it will fluctuate accordingly. So yeah, it's a big gamble which is why I am prepared to lose everything or triple everything that I invested because I treat it like Vegas.
WTF's Avatar
  • WTF
  • 05-12-2022, 06:47 AM

Unlike the US dollar that we can seemingly print as much as we want with nothing to back it up. Originally Posted by royamcr
The U S Dollar has a nation to back it's worth. A nation choked full of assets. Oil, gas, real estate. The most lethal military in the world.

BitCoin problem(s) as I see it....is the cost of energy to mine. Another. It is dependent on nations whims. What if the US bans it?

Look at Coinbase right now.

Plus old fuckers like me just do not understand it!
bambino's Avatar
The U S Dollar has a nation to back it's worth. A nation choked full of assets. Oil, gas, real estate. The most lethal military in the world.

BitCoin problem(s) as I see it....is the cost of energy to mine. Another. It is dependent on nations whims. What if the US bans it?

Look at Coinbase right now.

Plus old fuckers like me just do not understand it! Originally Posted by WTF
You are an old fucker. And don’t understand much of anything.