Regardless of conjecture, you can't compare rates of acceleration and values for two entirely different conditions. There is zero equivalance between heart disease and Corona.
While the efficacy of social distancing is unknown, it's been proven around the globe throughout decades worth of outbreaks. It's not even remotely new.
In terms of the impact on rural MO, the total infections would look different, but rate of acceleration would still be high.
So yes, we have no idea how many would actually die, but we can estimate that the numbers would be significant based on the ability for social distancing to have known impacts on rate limiting.