The predictions in the link have all 3 Democratic toss-up races going Democratic.
The Senate races are less a referendum on the POTUS than the House races. I think Trump's unfounded claims of voter fraud in Arizona and Georgia will come back to haunt the Republican candidates. Many voters in those states on both sides of the aisle remained pissed by Trump's accusations. In my opinion, Trump's actions cost Republicans control of the Senate in 2020 when both Republican candidates in Georgia lost runoff elections.
I think the largest negative against Biden thus far is his handling of the border. The economy, other than the inflation which is predicted to ease in 2022, is in good shape. Low unemployment, GDP growth and wages moving in the right direction. Stock market still well above when Biden took office.
I don't want to get into an argument on certain issues but I believe Biden has done a good job on the coronavirus, although I disagree with his vaccine mandates on private businesses. He got a huge infrastructure package passes which matches any accomplishment Trump had in 4 years in office. He is definitely focused on inflation.
I believe you are correct on the impact of this war on the minds of voters. The next few weeks will be interesting.
Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
And I'm just ball parking here but I tend to believe with all Biden's and Democrats numbers going south, that any toss-up going to Democrat will be won by a Republican. In other words, any purple state will be red, any contest close will be won by the Republican candidate unless of course a MTG candidate is picked by Republicans.
Wages "moving in the right direction" means absolutely nothing if inflation takes away the buying power of higher wages and wasn't inflation suppose to be "transitory"?
I don't see any way in hell, that inflation will be tamed by Nov. Not a chance in hell as I see it.
With all those Democrats and Independents watching Fox and Tucker, it doesn't bode well for Democrats.