Tell that to a client of an independent that got busted.....do you BELIEVE that has never happened? What is your point. You of all people know stats.
Originally Posted by WTF
Well those names (i.e., Palfrey's black book) were released -- to the press as a defense move. Sure independents get busted and some will trade info for charges. However, because I DO KNOW STATS, let me explain it this way.
a) If you have a agency vs. an independent, I'd venture to say the agency has 3-4x the chances of being busted -- more people involved, higher profile, bigger target, etc. (I'm in each case ignoring obvious incompetents that I wouldnt even touch with your dick.
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b) A typical agency probably has 30-40 times as many names as an independent just from the differences in volume and the more 1x users. If we are talking an HDH independent, its probably more like 100x. This is relevant because if the agency gets busted, the bigger the pool of names, the the chance of being exposed.
c) Agencies involve multiple people handling the info. I suspect the risk increases exponentially with the people involved. So lets give this one about a 5-10x factor.
d) The Palfrey factor -- newspapers are going to be much more interested in publishing an agency list -- more names, juicier story. Maybe 2-3x greater at least.
So if you multiply the middle of each of those ranges out you get the odds at being exposed by an agency at about 2,000x that of an independent. Now granted the independent is pretty low -- lets say one out of twenty million as you suggested. That makes the agency risk 1 out of 10,000. Still not something to get alarmed about, but probably higher than your chance of being hit by lightening. All risks are relative.