The democrats really needed a strong message, especially in the house, and they got it. My worry is now focused on the (lack of) competence of their replacements. I'll try to keep an open mind because change was needed, but I'm pretty worried.
Originally Posted by Lust4xxxLife
I'm with you on all three points. In particular, it's no surprise that the party was rebuked for larding up that phony $862 billion "stimulus" package with political payoffs and pork, and for botching the health care "reform" plan. And, like you, I'm plenty worried about where all this is likely to lead. (I'll get to that later.)
Full disclosure: I am conservative but I am neither Democrat nor Republican. I think both parties are corrupt and incompetent. I'm looking for any and all evidence that either party may begin to emerge and once again represent the people who elect them and not the lobbyists who corrupt them.
Originally Posted by Lust4xxxLife
Same here. I might be simpatico with
some Republicans if they would actually do what they say they're going to do regarding fiscal restraint, and if they would drop the obsession with a social agenda perfectly tailored for small-town 1950s Kansas. But the experience of the last decade suggests that handing all the levers of power to either of our dysfunctional parties is like giving a 500-horsepower muscle car to an overtestosteroned 17-year-old.
I don't think one should look at any of this as though it just happened in a vacuum. Look at what Republicans did between 2002 and 2007.
When George W. Bush took office in 2001, the federal budget was about $1.8 trillion. Seven years later, spending had increased by about 50% in nominal dollars. A lot of people think the main reason was the two wars. They have been very expensive, to be sure, but massive increases in spending on the 2003 prescription drug entitlement expansion, pork-laden farm bills, transportation bills, ethanol subsidies, various other things that fall under the broad category of "corporate welfare", etc. added up to even greater additions to the deficit.
With a record like that, it's no wonder voters rebuked the Republican Party in 2006 and again in 2008.
But look what Nancy Pelosi said upon taking the Speaker's Gavel in January, 2007:
41-Second Video Clip
Oops!
Pretty hard to defend much of anything the 100th and 111th Congresses did.
Divided government worked well after the 1994 housecleaning. Bill Clinton moved to the center and cooperated with the Republican Congress to restrain the rate of spending growth to the lowest level in modern history. In fact, spending fell substantially as a percentage of GDP. It's no accident that 1995-2000 was one of our most prosperous periods.
But I'm not sure divided government will work as well this time. For one thing, we were in a much different place then. The path to meaningful deficit reduction, compared with now, was pretty easy. Now it's very difficult and the parties are very polarized. I think they will dig in for a fight.
On the spending side, Republicans have said they will take on domestic discretionary spending -- but that's only about one-sixth of the budget. The real money is in defense and entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security. I don't think either party has the political will to go where the real bucks are. It would be political suicide.
And it's just going to get worse, too. Baby Boomers will start turning 65 next year and an ever-larger number will do so each year for a number of years to come.
On the tax side, Republicans staunchly oppose any tax increase on anyone at any time for any reason. Democrats staunchly oppose any tax increase on anyone at any time for any reason, except for those of us in about the top 2% of the income strata. Most people have no idea how little difference there is (in terms of potential revenue collection) between those two positions. (It's about one-third of one percentage point of GDP, while our current deficit is about 9% of GDP.)
In my opinion, the cold, hard truth is that the only way you can even come close to paying for today's level of spending is with a VAT. Don't look for any of the political elite to start pushing for that, though. It wouldn't go over well with voters who are the metaphorical equivalent of a kid who is told he can have all the free ice cream he wants; the fat kid down the street will eat his broccoli for him.
Extended periods of slow growth almost always follow big, entrenched expansions of government spending. Therefore I believe that we're in for a bit of a tough time no matter what we do. We're unlikely to restore the sustained average year-over-year GDP growth rate of the period 1983-2007 any time soon. But we're fishing in very dangerous waters if we don't take steps soon to head off a fiscal calamity. Britain is making tough political choices to do just that. Of course, they've seen the ugly consequences of failing to do so.
If we continue trying to kick the can down the road we will risk simply building a bridge to the next crisis rather than to a more prosperous future.