Big Time Decisions

After spending many months with graduate level statistics, using statistics for operational research at several of the largest companies in the USA, and several papers on statistical research methods I feel qualified to comment.

Statistics should not be used to support a position, ever! Gathering statistics is used to describe the observed conditions. There is always a degree of confidence in your data (80%, 90%, 95% etc.) based on the limits of the data, the sample size, and the size of the population addressed. Statistics are a great tool to try to describe what is observed. However, it is widely misused by those who try to use it to prove a point, or to apply it from general observation to individual cases. Statistics doesn't tell us lies, but most people have not studied statistics. I regularly pick up news stories with information about statistics that are obvious lies with the intent of influencing people with the misapplication of statistics.

If you flip a coin 10 times and it has come up heads ten times the probability of it coming up tails the next flip is still 50%. But if you flip it 2000 times and it always comes up heads, look at both sides of the coin to see if there are heads on both sides of the coin. In other words, after data has been gathered is it suspect that your assumption that this is a representative coin true or false. Go further than just the data input.

Are the questions you are gathering data on correct, before you gather the data. Can the question ever be answered? If not change the question.

JR Originally Posted by JRLawrence

I was hoping you were going to mention this as well in your mini stats lesson, but it is not blatant. I would like to add that correlation and causation are two very different things and to use stats to try to state that corollary is cause undermines your (the guy with the stats) conclusion.

Captain Kaos you will have to elaborate on the Vanilla Sky reference. Growler I have been comtemplating a lot these days. I remember life before the Hobby and now and its been two different lives. If I take the next step im all in. There is no Push or insurance its 21 or bust. One thing I know is that I don't want to lose my friend who has bent over backwards for me, taken much of her time....her own time, to devote to helping me and to be an emotional support in me. She saw good in me. She once promised me she would always be in the picture....but if I ever wanted a normal life...she would have to be out of the picture. I know things changes for providers and hobbyists they have obligations. But if you're happy having that friend in your life isn't it worth it? Originally Posted by christopherstcloud

Before this theard completely goes off the deep end over statisics. Stcloud you're a luckly man to have such a friend. As I read your reply, I think you already have your answer. Trust what you feel......What the hell is normal anyway LOL. Anyone who knows me, knows I have this thing for quotes, anyway .
"Nobody see a flower-really-it is so small it takes time-we haven't
time-and to see takes time, like to have a friend takes time."
Georgia O'keeffe

I was hoping you were going to mention this as well in your mini stats lesson, but it is not blatant. I would like to add that correlation and causation are two very different things and to use stats to try to state that corollary is cause undermines your (the guy with the stats) conclusion. Originally Posted by SillyGirl

http://www.eccie.net/index.php
From my previous post. "Statistics should not be used to support a position, ever! Gathering statistics is used to describe the observed conditions."

Very good! Go to the head of the class. Observed conditions, measured by statistics may show correlation. Causation is something else. If someone searches my post posts, several months ago, I made the comment that LE had asked me about the use of data to prove a case. My input was that it could not be used in court at all because the data could not prove the point. The data was a correlation only, and furthermore the assumption that the data was trying to prove was incorrect. i,e, if you flip a coin 2000 times and it always comes up heads, what is wrong with the coin. The probability of it being tails on the 2001 flip is still 50%; therefore, don't admit to the officer that you used a double headed coin.

JR

I to am using this "hobby" as a way to stay sane! as with JR I have lost the love of my life and have no interest in bringing someone into my home with my kids. My kids deserve all of me and more bad than good can happen from a second marriage or multiple relationships. This is my escape and so far most of the "ladies" i have met have been wonderful experiences and I have truly enjoyed my time. Maybe some day i will find that new SO maybe not. Can a relationship develop out of a hobby like this. I would say yes if given the honest attention that relationships require. Until then we all need to remember this is an escape for most guys and the "alusion of a relationship" is what that time donation is.

Enjoy and stay safe. Originally Posted by 1963Cobra

Perfection. I know I for one, am not trying to fill that role for you gents! But you are filling one for me in leu of a distant partner!

Like what was posted earlier, "i just dont like to sit around all the time and look pretty" and I'm pretty sure I wore sweats to the bar last night!

I think being on the MOST personal level with a provider is dealing with her day-to-day activities whether it's with her kids, going to school, loving on her cats, seeing her in sweats with a ponytail, etc. It just takes away from the allusion. If you happen to find a woman in which you can share a little bit of that experience and grow close to them to make up for something that's lacking in you're life great! That's my favorite part of this hobby.

Sillygirl, that was anything but silly. You're right!

Related to the subject but a bit off track I've always wanted to scan the psyche of one who peddles the hobby. I'm always interested in other peoples life stories and how they came to where they are in life. I'm always curious about what drives them to be also what they are. Limited experience has prevented me from becoming friends with someone and chat without being invasive or appearing what I can only deem as rude. I'm sure the answers would cover a whole lot of different answers due to lots of different circumstances. The relation to the subject at hand I believe would make someone analyze whether to be in such a relationship.

I think for me it comes down to this. If you need to ask advice from strangers on how to live your life then maybe you ought to think long and hard about what you're doing very few of those big "life moments" were ambiguous to me. If you're not sure now, what's it going to be like when the bulllets are flying?

Good point Sens, I think he's reaching out to someone who has previous experience in subject.

I understand. But I had to take escort a "friend" to a few AA meetings a while back. One guy said something quite profound. He said "be careful who you make friends with around here. There are a lot of sick people around here". Truer words were never spoken.

Corbra,
Allow time to heal. Look after the kids. As one of the ladies here told me: "You sure have had bad luck with women." But I have been very lucky, I am on my third marriage, and my first two wives died. This one is very sick and I will stay with her no matter what. I now have three in-law families, plus my own. After Nam I learned that when the war is over; it is over. Walk away from it, get your head together and go on. Your first obligation is to the kids, and then to yourself. All of the family follow later. But to find a SO it has to be built on something other than the physical. I have been lucky, I had an education and the ability to make enough money to take care of the problems, and the loss. There are some good professionals, and some hacks, who may or may not be able to help you. Looking back: after a lot of stress, we all need a little rest. Both the service, and overseas contract jobs, called R & R: rest and relaxation. Take a guy out of the combat, and send him on a week's vacation. R & R was referred to many times with a wink, we all knew it meant more than rest and relaxation. I would recommend you look outside the world of the provider for a second wife for one reason only; you are looking for a life companion, and a step mother for the kids, and you are interviewing a woman for a tough job. Don't let your little head to the thinking for your big head - a tough job for most guys. Don't even allow sex for a longer time than you desire; if you are looking at a woman for the long term. The relationship must be built, and it is hard work. But, as some point sex will open up a lot of things that will you to really get inside a girls head. She will let her defense down, and let you know what she is really like; and you need to know that. I rejected women after sex, not because of the sex, but because I learned things that were not in my long term plans (what they really thought about children).

I have been really lucky. I have loved three women, and I have great kids and grandkids. Loving, really loving, women takes work and planning. Take them flowers, and do nice things for them. The good ones deserve it. The ones that are friends also deserve our kindness. The word love in the ancient Greek was a masculine verb (verbs don't have gender in English), it was used in the same way that the King of the country loved and looked after everyone in the county. He was a leader, and the leader looks after those he leads. For the good of the country the people were submitted (male and female) to the King, and the verb submit was feminine for love.

You got me started. I need to stop and get back to the computer.

Take care of the Kids,

JR Originally Posted by JRLawrence

thanks for the advice and maybe someday I will be ready to look. Right now I am still in that "lightening" won't strike twice in my life. Besides I am not sure I would survive losing another, as you say i will get there. I hope so but right now my heart couldn't go through it again.

As with all things in life, changes will make me reasses soon enough. my oldest is leaving for college in the fall and I won't have him everyday. Not sure where that will take my decision making but it will have a definite effect. He and I have traveled a unique road together but as I have told him it's time for a change. Maybe I need to review my own advice.

I tried to domesticate a provider...didn't work out so well.

I tried to domesticate a provider...didn't work out so well. Originally Posted by wildman

LOL. We're wild animals.

This has been an excellent thread and amazingly enough, very little drama.

thanks for the advice and maybe someday I will be ready to look. Right now I am still in that "lightening" won't strike twice in my life. Besides I am not sure I would survive losing another, as you say i will get there. I hope so but right now my heart couldn't go through it again... Originally Posted by 1963Cobra

You cry baby! Snap out of it. Lightening? Forget the lightening; get out there and enjoy the rain; just wear a raincoat. I will tell you exactly what a good friend told me after my first wife died (that was PERSONAL): "Damn you need to get laid in a really bad way". Sex gives you a hit to the head with all of the enjoyable chemicals the body gives us. Be careful with your feelings, but realize we all see death. I have lost my two wives, my parents, my business partner, and a lot of friends in Nam. I have been badly injured several times, and had cancer cut out of me (I think it is gone). But, none of that is even close to seeing a mother lose a child.

Welcome to the world, it is not fair; and we all see a lot of stuff before we die. I have just lived longer than you. I have had the time to see a lot of good, and a little of the bad.

You kids will be able to see more stuff by the time you reach my age. So, snap out of it you mamby pamby crybaby. Get your act together, and enjoy life to the best of your ability. You have only one chance at it.

Think of it, with three wives and my family; I have four families. A lot of people and a lot of joy. I just keep my sex life private. It is for my personal time and enjoyment. One needs to control the way one's personal actions affects others. The effect of being too open can be negative.

I have a close friend who also lost his young wife to cancer. He had three daughters; the oldest was 5. Six years later the girls introduced him to a young woman. They married, and he now has a fourth daughter. So it happens to others too.

My only regret is not being able to have more children with my second or third wife. But, by the time I met them they were through having children and so I have step children and step grandchildren too.

So what, go with the flow. This is like water you watch flowing to the sea. The stream is renewed with new water that we watch now. The old water that we spat in is gone; look at what is new.

Quit crying about it. The time for mourning is past. Get out there, take a vacation. Treat yourself to a good night out, or a dinner with the kids, or whatever you enjoy. Most of all go to a gym. Exercise will do more than anyone can tell you to get you out of the blues. Hard exercise, is good for the mind and good for the body. Run, swim, lift weights. Just do it. The shrinks won't tell you about the gym, or the sex, because it cuts into their business.

JR

Point taken oh wise one !

As far as the Gym yes thats my other "me time" I did 4 triathlons this year by far my most in 1 year. Love the training more than the races. Next year we are going to do the Escape from Alcatraz Race as well as the 5 that are in the midwest.