6 of 10 disapproval for Trump

States that receive more federal assistance than they contribute:


1 New Mexico
2 Mississippi
3 Louisiana
4 Kentucky
5 West Virginia
6 Alabama
7 Oregon
8 Tennessee
9 South Carolina
10 Arkansas


Break out the crayons and color the states red or blue and see what you get. Originally Posted by 69in2it69

Huh? This shows a list of what state residents paid to the federal government versus what they received back, and here are the top 10 that benefited the most,

Virginia
Alabama
South Carolina
New Mexico
Mississippi
Arizona
Michigan
Louisiana
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
Maryland

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-...deral-revenue/

That's a pretty balanced list. After giving effect to the Virginia election this evening, six of the ten governors of those states are Democrats.

Anyway, you're making the same mistake our friend Texassapper did when he analyzed COVID deaths. You're not segmenting the data in a logical manner. See the links to the Gallup and Pew polls I posted in this thread. Republicans pay for more federal assistance and Democrats receive more, at least if we're talking SNAP benefits. Throw in the corporate welfare, a lot of which was dished out by the Biden administration and a Democratic Congress in 2021/2022, and the Republicans might be on the long end of the stick though.

I leave it! That would be a sucker bet. Originally Posted by Tiny

just as yours was. You made the claim that the Dems would end the shut down since the election would be over and they have no more need to leverage the situation. And you want to get credit if the shut down ends, even if the reason therefore is the republicans caving. I'd say the sucker bet offer was yours.

My offer only ensures that you win only where the Democrats cave to the republican demand they open the government and then negotiate.

So there ya go. Tossing out "bets" but not wanting to actually stand by what you initially said.

just as yours was. You made the claim that the Dems would end the shut down since the election would be over and they have no more need to leverage the situation. And you want to get credit if the shut down ends, even if the reason therefore is the republicans caving. I'd say the sucker bet offer was yours.

My offer only ensures that you win only where the Democrats cave to the republican demand they open the government and then negotiate.

So there ya go. Tossing out "bets" but not wanting to actually stand by what you initially said. Originally Posted by 1blackman1

While I may have given my reasoning, I didn't specify whether the Republicans or the Democrats would "win" as a part of the bet. It wouldn't have mattered who caved. I don't know what you posted in another thread, but here, below, you just addressed the timing, not your reasoning:

Well, of course it'll be after Tuesday. Doubtful it'll be soon though.

I made my prediction as to when they will vote that way. It ain't this week or next. Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Fair enough, you're not confident this won't be settled by the end of next week.

According to your favorite source, the top 10 are

New Mexico: \(\$2.63\) received for every dollar paid
West Virginia: \(\$2.57\) received for every dollar paid
Mississippi: \(\$2.47\) received for every dollar paid
Hawaii: \(\$2.38\) received for every dollar paid
Alabama: \(\$2.03\) received for every dollar paid
Alaska: \(\$1.93\) received for every dollar paid
Montana: \(\$1.92\) received for every dollar paid
South Carolina: \(\$1.92\) received for every dollar paid
Maine: \(\$1.78\) received for every dollar paid
New Mexico: \(\$1.87\)

6 of 10 would RED in this as well.

While I may have given my reasoning, I didn't specify whether the Republicans or the Democrats would "win" as a part of the bet. It wouldn't have mattered who caved. I don't know what you posted in another thread, but here, below, you just addressed the timing, not your reasoning:



Fair enough, you're not confident this won't be settled by the end of next week. Originally Posted by Tiny

I suspect that it will not be settled by the end of the week. I cannot see how they get there in the next 11 days or so. Here is why

1) House would have to return - my buddy Mike is loathed to have to bring the House back since he would have to swear in the AZ democrat and have a vote on the Epstein release. He needs democrats to agree to the CR without any amendments.
2) the democrats will not agree to the current CR without amendment (though there is a possibility they could have the subsidies addressed in a separate bill but there is no guarantee that gets signed by Trump so it would be foolish.
3) if the CR gets to Trump it will surely have an extension to the subsidies attached, which would require a new vote by the house.
4) the off ramp for the Republicans in this would be to add language that no illegals would get the subsidies (which they don't already) but adding that superfluous language would allow them to claim a win in the negotiation and allow them to claim that this shut down was not for nothing.

Jacuzzme's on the right track, when he says look at blue and red cities instead of states. But why not take it much further and look at the individuals who are disproportionately paying for the benefits (Republicans -- see Gallup poll in post #27) and receiving the benefits (Democrats -- see Pew poll in post #25).

Gentlemen, you should have been paying attention in statistics class when the prof brought up confirmation bias, ecological fallacy and Simpson's Paradox.

And I bet if were to add up the 8 of 10 RED states in that lists population, it would be greater than the population of California.

I'd hazard a guess that if you add up the number of residents of those 8 states that on SNAP, it would exceed the number of SNAP recipients in California as well. Originally Posted by 1blackman1

States that receive more federal assistance than they contribute:


1 New Mexico
2 Mississippi
3 Louisiana
4 Kentucky
5 West Virginia
6 Alabama
7 Oregon
8 Tennessee
9 South Carolina
10 Arkansas


Break out the crayons and color the states red or blue and see what you get. Originally Posted by 69in2it69

break them out and you won't get the answer you think. both of you are wrong with this attempt to paint the "blue states carrying red states" nonsense now let Tiny tell you why ...

Huh? This shows a list of what state residents paid to the federal government versus what they received back, and here are the top 10 that benefited the most,

Virginia
Alabama
South Carolina
New Mexico
Mississippi
Arizona
Michigan
Louisiana
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
Maryland

https://usafacts.org/articles/which-...deral-revenue/

That's a pretty balanced list. After giving effect to the Virginia election this evening, six of the ten governors of those states are Democrats.

Anyway, you're making the same mistake our friend Texassapper did when he analyzed COVID deaths. You're not segmenting the data in a logical manner. See the links to the Gallup and Pew polls I posted in this thread. Republicans pay for more federal assistance and Democrats receive more, at least if we're talking SNAP benefits. Throw in the corporate welfare, a lot of which was dished out by the Biden administration and a Democratic Congress in 2021/2022, and the Republicans might be on the long end of the stick though. Originally Posted by Tiny

and let me add for the benefit of our valued posters it's the "Big 5" carrying everyone else blue or red and they are also balanced.


California
New York
Texas
Illinois
Florida


3 staunchly BLUE 2 staunchly RED these states by far fund the fed tax coffers for everyone else. red or blue. it's amusing this false leftist argument that blue states are carrying red states and their other socialist lie .. " the rich aren't paying their fair share!"


Nonsense!!!!


the ultra rich/rich have been carrying the nation's huge debt on their backs for decades. if not for the rich the USA would have gone bankrupt decades ago.

I suspect that it will not be settled by the end of the week. I cannot see how they get there in the next 11 days or so. Here is why

1) House would have to return - my buddy Mike is loathed to have to bring the House back since he would have to swear in the AZ democrat and have a vote on the Epstein release. He needs democrats to agree to the CR without any amendments.
2) the democrats will not agree to the current CR without amendment (though there is a possibility they could have the subsidies addressed in a separate bill but there is no guarantee that gets signed by Trump so it would be foolish.
3) if the CR gets to Trump it will surely have an extension to the subsidies attached, which would require a new vote by the house.
4) the off ramp for the Republicans in this would be to add language that no illegals would get the subsidies (which they don't already) but adding that superfluous language would allow them to claim a win in the negotiation and allow them to claim that this shut down was not for nothing. Originally Posted by 1blackman1

That's more like it! This is the legal or political equivalent of a TC or LL post on economics. I actually learned something, and it will be interesting to see if things play out as you predict in days to come.

Excerpt from

Democrats Dent Trump’s Coalition With Three Big Election Wins

Jack Ciattarelli, who was endorsed by Trump and embraced much of the MAGA movement during his campaign in New Jersey, was drawing 43% support in nearly final results—almost exactly in line with Trump’s job approval rating in the state. A large survey of Tuesday’s electorate, called the Voter Poll by SSRS, found that 42% of New Jersey voters approve of Trump’s job performance.

In Virginia, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the target of Democratic ads linking her to Trump, was drawing 42% of the vote, just above Trump’s 39% job approval rating as recorded by the Voter Poll. In both states, twice as many voters, or more, said their vote was meant as a signal of opposition to Trump rather than support.

“There is no sugarcoating these results. They’re really bad for the party,” said Michael DuHaime, a former political director of the Republican National Committee and for former Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign, among others. “Republicans would be smart to heed the warning signs of this election.” Heading into next year’s House and Senate elections, he said, “these races are an early warning system.”

https://www.wsj.com/politics/electio...umtopper_pos_1

Trump says his poll numbers are the best numbers and that polls showing the opposite are fake and false.

Now he claims the only way to end the shutdown is to do away with the filibuster. That was this morning at the Republican White House breakfast. So the real question now is “will the republicans in the senate throw away their political careers for 1 more year of passing Trump policies and risk being in the minority for years to come with zero power since they’ll not have a filibuster to fall back on”?

I’m legitimately interested in seeing what the republican senate calculation on this is. Passing more laws in support of Trump surely won’t make Trump or them more popular. And this stacking the house gambit appears to be backfiring since even Texas might possibly add more democrat seats rather than Republican seats as the lose the Hispanic vote. Epstein files might further break their backs. And this healthcare subsidy issue is moving further away from the republicans every day.

Now he (Trump) claims the only way to end the shutdown is to do away with the filibuster. That was this morning at the Republican White House breakfast. So the real question now is “will the republicans in the senate throw away their political careers for 1 more year of passing Trump policies and risk being in the minority for years to come with zero power since they’ll not have a filibuster to fall back on”?

I’m legitimately interested in seeing what the republican senate calculation on this is. Passing more laws in support of Trump surely won’t make Trump or them more popular. Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Seriously, the headline. The next time Democrats control the presidency, Senate and House, they could

Add 10 seats to the Supreme Court, all appointed by a Democratic president

Make Puerto Rico and Washington, D. C. states

Make abortion legal with few restrictions in all 50 states

Pass a nationwide minimum wage

Expand and add entitlements. How about a minimum income for everyone?

Increase tax rates on higher earners sky high

Sunset the oil and gas industry and make America carbon neutral

I saw a little of Trump's speech to the Senators and he just didn't make sense. He said unless Republicans ended the filibuster, Democrats would make DC and PR states and pack the Supreme Court. He's got that backwards.

And this stacking the house gambit appears to be backfiring since even Texas might possibly add more democrat seats rather than Republican seats as the lose the Hispanic vote. Originally Posted by 1blackman1

Exit polls in New Jersey and Virginia lend credence to that. Hispanics switched their votes to the Democrats. They voted for Trump in 2024 in large numbers because inflation got out of control under Biden and peoples' standard of living fell. What did Trump do about that? He implemented tariffs and medieval removal program for illegals that add to inflation. The high profile of the federal agents rounding up brown people didn't help either.

You can conclude that Trump doesn't give a damn what happens to the Republican Party after he's gone. These positions are not helpful for long term prospects of the party.

You can conclude that Trump doesn't give a damn what happens to the Republican Party after he's gone. These positions are not helpful for long term prospects of the party. Originally Posted by Tiny

No shit Sherlock. That’s been the case since 2016.

In reality, there is no Republican Party any longer. He co-opted it and made it just his party.