Maybe now we'll get spending under control - somewhat, maybe, please, just a little?.
Here's hoping the GOP will finally start nominating fiscal conservatives who are libertarian on social issues. Candidates that will actually cut spending, including entitlements.
Originally Posted by ExNYer
Good for you. Sane thread, thanks. I do happen to disagree with you on the spending issue. It isn't that I don't think we need to be more fiscally responsible and efficient in our spending (we do) but I just don't think that focusing on the spending, austerity in other words, is the right way to address deficits, debt and spending. Focusing on full employment, inflation and investment are the best ways, IMHO, to get deficits, debt and spending under control. It was Dick Cheney, not my favorite guy, but definitely smart, who said several times and on video, "deficits don't matter". Now I would take some issue with him on that (for instance, if we let them matter politically or psychologically then they do matter - but from a strictly accounting standpoint, they don't matter), but fundamentally he is correct.
Bottom line is that the budget of the U.S. is not a household, business nor even a state or city budget (only much bigger) and it shouldn't be thought of or handled in the same way. It is structurally different and can be easily shown to be so from an accounting perspective. None of the aforementioned budgets create their own currency and that makes a critical structural difference. A sovereign's macro economy is not a subset of a larger economy, it has peers with inputs and output, but it is top level - that makes a significant structural and mathematical difference that isn't accounted for in most assertions and discussions.
I keep repeating the mantra here that macro isn't micro and vice versa but no one still seems to get it. Why, if the rules are the same for both (and they aren't) are there two economic disciplines? Furthermore, in my study, the rules of macro are not intuitive because everybody thinks they understand micro-economics and accounting since they often run a household, a business or balance a checkbook. No one runs anything that has a guaranteed income (think trust fund, but in macro it is taxing authority - yes states, cities and counties have that I know) AND monetary policy. Specifically, in the modern world, a fiat monetary system. Look up, study and read about Chartalism and/or MMT to understand this. It only took me about five years to really start to get it and I don't fully yet, but I think I have some of the basics.
My biggest pet peeves are when people wrongly assert that the U.S. is bankrupt or is going bankrupt, will go the way of Greece or we are mortgaging our children's future. These ideas are just plain wrong.
#1 - Greece doesn't have any monetary policy and has a very corrupt tax system as well where many people don't pay taxes at all and this is considered OK. That makes Greece like a state where most of the taxes didn't get paid at all. Our country isn't and can't be like that unless we somehow do not have the political will to pay our bills (like not raising the debt ceiling).
#2 - The U.S. has tax income in perpetuity as long as the people and their elected representatives have the political will to raise taxes. In a fiat monetary system, taxes are used to create demand for the money and aren't or don't have to be used to pay for things because... see #3.
#3 - The U.S. creates its own money. This means that we don't have to borrow and don't have to pay interest if we don't want to. If you had a money tree in your back yard would you have to take out a loan for a car or a house? No. Would you have to pay interest on anything at all? No. We do those things for historic reasons, but we don't have to. Period. This is a mathematical and accounting reality that can be shown and proven quite easily.
Now, I'm not saying that we should have unlimited deficits, debts or spending nor that we shouldn't be fiscally responsible, but this furor over a "debt crisis" or "deficit crises" or "spending crisis" is unfounded. In fact most of the deficit since 2007 is due to non-discretionary spending -
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2...e-largely.html
This means that when the housing market recovers (which it is finally doing) and we get closer to full employment (which the housing market will help with) then the deficits will auto-magically mostly disappear. Yes, there are lots of other factors involved, but if we are headed in the right direction, however, slowly (remember the Ryan plan didn't even balance the budget until 2040) we will be doing fine. Stability, employment and low inflation (plus no deflation) are the keys to fiscal responsibility and the big plus is that business really likes that approach too. With those in place, we can easily grow out of these deficits, spending (except on Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security, but those are cyclical and mostly manageable) and even the national debt that seems so huge will be manageable. With high employment, reasonable GDP growth and rational adjustment to the programs we have now, we can actually have pretty low taxes, fiscal responsibility and most of the government services we need.
I just get so F^%$&in sick of all the economic scare/fear tactics based on ignorance of how things really work. That leads to group psychological panic and terrible political and economic decisions. To really understand all this you have to start back at the Bretton-Woods conference and also study Nixon's end to converability in 1971 along with Chartalism and/or MMT.