Place your bets here - Electoral College and Senate

None of the others would have been able to win the general election. Originally Posted by texassapper

You have to give credit to Trump for his campaigning skills, especially considering this was his first election. Still, I disagree, Kasich should have done better. He way outperformed Hillary Clinton in the polls, while Trump did not. Here are the RCP poll averages,

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5162.html


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html

I'm betting trump will take down more than enough of the gop to give the intelligent rationale Dems at least a 55 in the Senate. 300 range in the electoral college. The idiot in chief n Putin will still claim victory though. Real Americans are not real stupid Originally Posted by Tsmokies

A second forecast with numbers! Thanks, will add that to an update before the Sunday evening deadline.

But you still voted for him?

YOW! Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

So you think one should just follow the crowd and not form an opinion of your own? Just because I think Trump won't win because of the shortsightedness of the American people, doesn't stop me from voting for the person I believe would be best for the country economically and foreign policy speaking.

Kasich should have done better. He way outperformed Hillary Clinton in the polls, while Trump did not. Here are the RCP poll averages, Originally Posted by Tiny

Well there's your problem... You seem to think that the. polls are unbiased. Are you under the impression that any of them are disinterested parties? You know how it's easy to skew this poll and not do anything different.... cherry pick your Republican zipcodes for the suburbs. That will skew any resulting poll towards Biden.

I'm just stunned to think that ANYONE interested in the truth would accept that the polling organizations are not all in on Biden as well.

Our institutional "so-called" elites are busy doing everything they can to keep Trump from winning, because if he does, all of the Russia shit, Gen Flynn, all of it blows wide open. We're going to see Obama get tied to domestic spying. High placed people are going to go to jail. The entrenched bureaucracy does not want that.

Quite honestly, if Trump wins... I expect an assassination attempt. It's the last resort.

From what I've read, HF has methodically eviscerated your arguments on more than one occasion. But that's no biggie. You're hardly a challenge in any debate. The best I can say is you rank slightly higher than tsmokies, matchingmole and assup rider, and that's because they are 100% trolls incapable of any serious forensic engagement.

Instead of badmouthing HF, why don't you consider the possibility that in blowing apart your arguments he is doing you a big favor if it forces you to figure out how to defend yourself with more persuasive counter-points instead of whining helplessly whenever your lame DNC talking points are demolished. Originally Posted by lustylad

Some where along the line, I must have really burned Mr. Jam badly. I wish I could remember the particular post.

You are right of course, he's no challenge in a debate, just one of those ad hominem attack guys that when challenged to an actual debate just can't put one together.

ad ho·mi·nem

I had just finished watching Bret Baier's analysis the key Senate races when I decided to answer the question. This is what I saw.


https://www.electoral-vote.com



Originally Posted by HedonistForever

You take all the "Barely Democratic" states on the map and Ohio (toss up) and assume they'll go to Trump, and Biden still has 308 electoral votes. Assume Trump gets Florida, which they show to be "likely Democrat," and Biden gets 279 votes. He needs 270 to win. It's going to be a tough row to hoe for Trump.

This interactive graph makes it easy to play around with the numbers,

https://www.270towin.com/

At some point I think Americans will recognize that things aren't working, and elect someone like Ronald Reagan, and the cycle will start all over again. The question is how long before that happens? Originally Posted by Tiny

A point I have been making since contemplating a Democrat sweep. If that happens, I think this batch of Democrats will fuck up so bad and when the American people see what happens to their taxes, jobs, dismemberment of law and order, they will realize the mistake they have made.


I think we will see the results in the first mid term and the country will abandon Democrats in numbers never seen before so it should only take two years to get back to some sanity.

Well there's your problem... You seem to think that the. polls are unbiased. Are you under the impression that any of them are disinterested parties? You know how it's easy to skew this poll and not do anything different.... cherry pick your Republican zipcodes for the suburbs. That will skew any resulting poll towards Biden. Originally Posted by texassapper

I think many are skewed, in that Republicans are less likely to spend the time to answer pollsters' questions. And historically they've been more likely to turn out to vote than Democrats in some elections. But not that skewed. Hillary was doing 3% better than Trump in the nationwide RCP poll average at the time of the election and she won the popular vote by 2%. Kasich was doing 7.4% better than Clinton when he dropped out. Kasich had double digit positive spreads between his approval and disapproval ratings. Clinton and Trump had double digit negative spreads -- a lot more people disapproved of them than approved.

I think this batch of Democrats will fuck up so bad and when the American people see what happens to their taxes, jobs, dismemberment of law and order, they will realize the mistake they have made. Originally Posted by HedonistForever

You have not been paying attention. The Dems will attempt to pack the court with minorities for "diversity"!

And once that's done...the American people will NOT be able to vote their way out of their fuckup.

Once you're on the train to the re-education center, the only way out is shooting your way out.

You take all the "Barely Democratic" states on the map and Ohio (toss up) and assume they'll go to Trump, and Biden still has 308 electoral votes. Assume Trump gets Florida, which they show to be "likely Democrat," and Biden gets 279 votes. He needs 270 to win. It's going to be a tough row to hoe for Trump.

This interactive graph makes it easy to play around with the numbers,

https://www.270towin.com/ Originally Posted by Tiny

Which is why I was more hesitant to guess on the electoral college than the Senate race. I don't think it will be a Biden blow out but I do think Biden wins because remarkably, many Americans seem willing to sacrifice a great deal to get rid of a personality they don't like even when he showed an ability to make improvements to the economy even if one believes Obama handed him an improving economy. We only have to remember back to the predictions from the left of how this new President would not only fail but would literally destroy our economy.


https://www.investors.com/politics/c...tions-of-2017/


Since the day Donald Trump was elected president in November of 2016 the Dow Jones industrial average has risen by some 35%, making the last 14 months one of the greatest bull-market runs in history.


Some $6 trillion of wealth has been created for Americans — which is very good news for the 55 million Americans with 401k plans, the 25 million or so who have IRAs, and another 20 million with company pension plans and employee stock ownership plans.


The left was certain that exactly the opposite would happen with a Trump presidency. To borrow a recent phrase from House minority leader Nancy Pelosi, Trump's policies would cause "Armageddon" for family finances, the American economy, and the stock market.


Keep all this talk of economic meltdowns and financial market doomsday in mind the next time you hear a news commentator say that "most economists" believe that Trump's policies won't work, or "mainstream economists" believe Trump doesn't know what he is doing. When it comes to Trump, his critics so far have almost all been not just wrong, but dead wrong.


"It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover? A first-pass answer is never… So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight." Paul Krugman of the New York Times the day after the election.


"Trump would likely cause the stock market to crash and plunge the world into recession." Simon Johnson, MIT economics professor, in The New York Times, November 2016.


"Citigroup: A Trump Victory in November Could Cause a Global Recession", Bloomberg Financial News headline, August 2016.

A point I have been making since contemplating a Democrat sweep. If that happens, I think this batch of Democrats will fuck up so bad and when the American people see what happens to their taxes, jobs, dismemberment of law and order, they will realize the mistake they have made.


I think we will see the results in the first mid term and the country will abandon Democrats in numbers never seen before so it should only take two years to get back to some sanity. Originally Posted by HedonistForever

I guess it depends a lot on what happens with the economy, and people may not realize they're screwing it up after just two years. For example, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela was wildly popular for over 10 years, mainly because rising oil prices kept bailing him out. Not to compare Chavez to Biden, his administration was more totalitarian and anti-free market than what we'll see from the Democrats, but similar principle, especially if people like Kamala Harris and AOC take control.

double post

You have not been paying attention. The Dems will attempt to pack the court with minorities for "diversity"!

And once that's done...the American people will NOT be able to vote their way out of their fuckup.

Once you're on the train to the re-education center, the only way out is shooting your way out. Originally Posted by texassapper

I'm just not that pessimist that the American people would let it get that far but of course I could be wrong. All I can do for now is cast my vote for Trump and hope I'm wrong on the Senate.


I'm concerned about the courts being packed with Liberals but more concerned about what is/ might happen on the streets. When people get scared enough of mobs roaming the streets, police quitting in staggering numbers, Liberals will start to be replaced by more responsible people. That is my hope but if as you say, the time comes to "shoot our way out of this", I'm ready to do that too.


And one more thing about polls. I'm not solely giving my opinion based on polls, I know they are skewered to the left to some degree. I pay very close attention to politics whether it seems like it or not to some people and it's my "feeling from observation and reading and watching" that Trump, who I believe has been good for the country economically speaking, has taken on a level of disgust and hate, maybe never before seen in American politics at least in my lifetime and I think he is going to pay a price for thinking he can say anything he wants without serious repercussions.

Well there's your problem... You seem to think that the. polls are unbiased. Are you under the impression that any of them are disinterested parties? You know how it's easy to skew this poll and not do anything different.... cherry pick your Republican zipcodes for the suburbs. That will skew any resulting poll towards Biden.

I'm just stunned to think that ANYONE interested in the truth would accept that the polling organizations are not all in on Biden as well.

Our institutional "so-called" elites are busy doing everything they can to keep Trump from winning, because if he does, all of the Russia shit, Gen Flynn, all of it blows wide open. We're going to see Obama get tied to domestic spying. High placed people are going to go to jail. The entrenched bureaucracy does not want that.

Quite honestly, if Trump wins... I expect an assassination attempt. It's the last resort. Originally Posted by texassapper

I challenge you to find any sampling or question bias by any of the respected polling companies.

It's fun to watch Lindsey in s Carolina though. On his knees with a mushroom in his mouth begging for $

Mea culpa. I was writing too quickly after reading an article about Collins. And I think I was just goong for the Graham punchline.

I'll take that one. Originally Posted by eccieuser9500

Well, you weren't completely wrong. There is a US Senate seat at stake in Alaska this year, just not Murkowski's.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/1...pending-428257