I'll give you the basic, short version. I have no reason to believe you actually care to learn--plus Che said it better than I can. Or read Ho Chi Min. Yep, they were commies, but guess who WON in VN and Cuba? Learning from the winners is typically more useful than repeating what the losers did. You don't have to like them to understand that they may know something.
Unconventional warfare, terrorism, insurgency, whatever you care to call it, is not about killing tanks or airplanes. It is about the hearts and minds of the local populous.
The populous responds to Maslow's hierarchy just as any other people do--though Che did not use those words. The citizenry will have no patience for philosophical niceties of democracy if they are hungry, or fear for their safety. Even then, freedoms are relative.
The essence of Che’s plan for revolution—essentially the same as the Taliban and the Viet Cong—is to avoid conflict with the regime’s military until the end game. They want to make the real fight between the government and the mass populous. And by having the RWWs and LWWs in the US more worried about winning elections at home than making true progress against the Islamic militants we play along with them like dupes.
Terror attacks against food or food distribution, against water & power, to make the populous hungry—and convince them that the government can’t or won’t keep them from starving.
Then to have very public and very horrific acts of terror intended to get the government to react with great force. But since the insurgents have little if any center of mass to attack, the government’s response results in civilian casualties. The aim is make the government seem powerless to protect the people, and even better if the government is seen itself to be the treat to safety. The more brutal the government’s response, the better in the eyes of the insurgents. They have no problem sacrificing a lot of civilians—it just reinforces that the gov’t is incapable of providing safety.
So Peters’ wonderful insights do nothing but act as a foil and advance the goal of the insurgents/revolutionaries. Read the history in VN, in Afghanistan, in Cuba.
Peters is an idiot. And it is especially sad with his intel background. It seems he sure didn’t learn much. The first rule of an intel professional is to understand what information is vital to acquire. The second—almost equally important rule—is to understand how the enemy thinks.
If you want to advocate increased SURGICAL violence, you can make an argument for that. The hard part there is knowing where to inject it. But “making widows and orphans” indiscriminately is stupid machismo that gets ratings points from morons watching MSNBC or FOX, but does nothing successful.
We all are tired of the past numerous years. We screwed up going into Iraq, we have screwed up thinking everyone WANTS our form of democracy, we screwed up refusing to understand THEIR culture (oh my, I could list asinine grievous errors by DoD and DOS on this topic, but mostly by senior politicians who made policy based upon winning US votes, not winning the peace).
Sorry I sound like I know more than many on here about this, but maybe it’s because I do. I have worked with the IC and Spec Ops for the last 36 years on this and other issues, and listening to the “experts” here is part laughable, part disgusting.
You want to change things? Focus on what the terrorists are doing—understand how to turn the populous against THEM. And that doesn’t happen by our bombing villages.
Originally Posted by Old-T
Old-T, you mean “populace” (noun) not “populous” (adjective).
I have no problem with trying to learn from Che Guevara or Ho Chi Minh and understand how they thought. I do have a problem with calling Che a “winner”. His efforts during the 1960s to export the Cuban revolutionary model to the rest of Latin America were an abject failure. He badly misjudged the societies of many Latin countries as being ripe for Marxist upheaval. He was a megalomaniac who died an inglorious death in the jungles of Bolivia. The only “hearts and minds” he won were posthumously in US academia and leftist mythology.
Regarding ISIS, I question how much of its success was a result of driving a wedge between the government and the populace. I think it was a simple case of expanding into vacuums where the governing authority was already weak or absent. Assad abandoned large swaths of Syria. Malaki never controlled Anbar. In places like Raqqa and Mosul, ISIS now is the government. The insurgents are in charge. Should we therefore act as insurgents – bombing and disrupting food, water and power to convince people that ISIS can't protect them or keep them from starving? Winning hearts and minds is tricky and fleeting in a culture where everyone practices deceit. I'm not sure how to win but I know ISIS is vulnerable because most Sunnis in Syria and Iraq don't want to live under its strict and brutal Sharia rules. We must figure it out fast before ISIS entrenches itself. I agree we need to understand the culture - that's a cliché. It didn't help our learning curve when we stupidly pulled out of Iraq in 2011 and abandoned the relationships we had so carefully cultivated with the Anwar tribes who expelled al queda during the 2006 Awakening. Why did we throw all that away? Oh yeah – domestic politics.
I am not overly concerned about Col. Peters. I certainly don't regard him as a “very dangerous man” who advocates “mass killing of civilians”. That's a complete distortion. He is right when he scorns Obama's handling of the situation. Even you said we need to make (unspecified) changes in our approach. The POTUS should not be poring over surgical strike options. He should be working on the politics of rebuilding our ties to Iraqi Sunnis, leveraging the Kurds, and pressuring the Turks to do the right thing. It is a delicate task and one that Obama is clearly not up to.
Thanks for responding, although I still don't see how the teachings of Che Guevara are of much use in defeating ISIS. Perhaps I need the long version.
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