I can assure you that Fred Hoyle didn't pull anything out of his ass. Hoyle was a prominent and highly respected astronomer and mathematician who gave name to the Big Bang theory developed by George Lemaitre. He was also an anti-thiest most of his life, much like Christopher Hitchens. Originally Posted by DucbutterBy "pulling it out of his ass", I mean that he probably made a shitload of generalizations and assumptions about what the environment was like 3 billion years ago. Which means there is a huge margin of error in his "40 zeros" number.
I don't even know how he could begin to estimate the probabilities.