flghtr65: Iran will be able to produce a nuclear weapon after 15 years. On Page 26, Item #25, The item reads that Iran cannot produce or purchase highly enriched uranium-235 at (20% concentration) or plutonium for 15 years. After 15 years this restriction is lifted.
From the text of the agreement:
"Iran will begin phasing out its IR-1 centrifuges in 10 years. During this period, Iran will keep its enrichment capacity at Natanz at up to a total installed uranium enrichment capacity of 5060 IR-1 centrifuges. Excess Centrifiges and enrichmen t-related infrastructure at Natanz will be stored under IAEA continuous monitoring, as specified in Annex I." -- Page 6 of 159 of the Iran nuclear agreement.
What's the big deal about IR-1 centrifuges?
http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles...el-collection/
Based on what the Iranians are willing to admit to, and what is suspected, the IR-1 is centerpiece in their suspected nuclear program. Without the IR-1, no nuclear weapon... unless you're willing to entertain the reality that exists in 3rd world countries and what they're willing to do relative to what is traditionally done by governments and by western civilization.
They must start dismantling their IR-1 centrifuges in 10 years. Many of the, "Iran will not seek.... " Comments have a shelf life of 15 years. Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, they're estimating that it'd take up to 5 years to completely phase out these centrifuges? And it so happens that they're limiting Iran for 15 years because the negotiators anticipate that the Iranians "wouldn't" have any centrifuges by that time?
Which brings us to my question...
How the holy God dammed fuck, based on your own arguments and the above facts, as well as the contradictory comments you made as recorded in my last reply to you regarding this, are they going to generate a nuclear weapon?
Unless, you're willing to look at the reality of what people in 3rd World countries are willing, and able, to do relative to what governments traditionally do? Again:
Which brings me back to my earlier question to you. WHERE, in the TEXT of the agreement, does it specifically state that the objective of the agreement is to prevent Iran from detonating a nuclear bomb until after 15 years? WHERE?
flghtr65: There are only two substances that can be used to make an Atomic Bomb like the ones used at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The substances are:
U-235 at enriched at 20% or Plutonium. Jackie S, talked about this in one of his posts.
And like I said throughout this thread. The agreement is based on what the Iranians are willing to admit, and what they're been verified to have. It's not based on what the Iranians aren't willing to admit to having. Also, its success depends on the Iranians being 100% honest, as well as they're willingness to restrict themselves to what's in the agreement.
Outside of what they're willing to admit to having, and outside of what the inspectors know exists, the agreement is meaningless, and doesn't impact when the Iranians would ultimately detonate their first nuclear bombs.
flghtr65: After 15 years Iran can try to purchase these substances or try to make it themselves from the Uranium ore that they have in the ground.
And create a nuclear bomb with what, assuming that we're in a perfect world and the agreement captures everything that exists, and the Iranians were honest, and will abide completely by the agreement? By the time 15 years rolls around, assuming that we're in a perfect world, the Iranians would've phased out all of their IR-1s. That's what I got from going through the text of the agreement.
If you go through the document, you'd find that they attempted to set things up to prevent Iran from ever detonating a nuclear bomb. After they assume that the Iranians wouldn't have enrichment capability, or enough of it to create a nuclear bomb, of course they're going to put down, "for 15 years."
Perhaps I'll find the text about the number of kitchen sinks that we have to send to Iran before I come across the one that says that the intent of this deal was to push out their ability to detonate a nuclear bomb sometime after 15 years.
Based on what the Iranians are willing to admit to, and what is suspected, the IR-1 is centerpiece in their suspected nuclear program. Without the IR-1, no nuclear weapon... unless you're willing to entertain the reality that exists in 3rd world countries and what they're willing to do relative to what is traditionally done by governments and by western civilization.
They must start dismantling their IR-1 centrifuges in 10 years. Many of the, "Iran will not seek...." Comments have a shelf life of 15 years. Don't you think that maybe, just maybe, they're estimating that it'd take up to 5 years to completely get rid of these centrifuges? And it so happens that they're limiting Iran for 15 years because the negotiators anticipate that the Iranians wouldn't have any centrifuges by that time?
Which brings us to my question...
How the holy God dammed fuck, based on your own arguments and the above facts, as well as the contradictory comments you made as recorded in my last reply to you regarding this, are they going to generate a nuclear weapon?
Unless, you're willing to look at the reality of what people in 3rd World countries are willing, and able, to do relative to what governments traditionally do? Again:
Which brings me back to my earlier question to you. WHERE, in the TEXT of the agreement, does it specifically state that the objective of the agreement is to prevent Iran from detonating a nuclear bomb until after 15 years? WHERE?
Originally Posted by herfacechair
HFC, you didn't win anything. You are ignorant of physics and can't comprehend what the document is saying.
Facts:
1. You can enrich uranium with any centrifuge. You don't have to use the most efficient model. If you use a model that is less efficient, it will just take longer to do.
2. On page 7 Item #15 of the agreement. Iraq is NOT allowed to enrich Uranium past 3.23% P-235. This is a significant restriction. You cannot make a nuclear bomb unless Uranium is enriched to 20%.
3. The Natrnaz facility which has most of the centrifuges and the nuclear reactor will be monitored in real time 24/7 to make sure uranium is not enriched past 3.23%. The USA is not trusting Iran. If we did the USA would not monitor the facility.
3. On page 26 Item #25 of the agreement. Iran will be ALLOWED to enrich Uranium to 20% concentration and above after 15 years from when the agreement goes into effect.
The agreement pushes out Iran's ability to make a nuclear weapon for 15 years from the wording of page 26 Item #25. Any attempt by Iran to enrich uranium past 3.23 % prior to 15 years from the start of the agreement would be a violation.
http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/doc...ear-deal/1651/