Now you’re just starting to tout the Fox News line. I’ve seen no evidence that people are coming back part-time. Wages are up which actually counters that theory. Job creation numbers also don’t support the “people aren’t going back to work” claims on Fox. Maybe we’ll get some job participation numbers by year end that might shed some light on that.
Simply put, 3.4 unemployment is a great sign. Will it be temporary, sure maybe, but not likely in the short term. Recession pressures are being controlled, not just in the US but in Europe. Production is up and supply chains are vastly improved over the past 12 months.
I love how you keep falling back on the Trump tax cuts. How about the Trump deficit spending. Unlike his predecessor, the Trump years even before Covid we deficits annually. So he cut taxes and propped up the economy by not paying for his spending. If you wanna understand the Trump economy that’s it for you right there. At least Obama was able to pay for the money he spent and had low and negative deficits.
Lusty remains on ignore. I can’t really abide people arguing through lying or changing my words to try to make their point.
Bidenomics has worked. The proof is in the puddin.
Originally Posted by 1blackman1
Hi Blackman,
I never even thought that your astute (honestly) analysis of legal issues on this board was something you pulled from MSNBC. Now I may not read the Journal of Financial Economics before breakfast, like LustyLad and Texas Contrarian, but I do use economics almost every day in my work. And I don't listen to Fox News for economic info. What I said about employment and inflation actually came from listening to David Rubenstein's interview with Fed Chairman Powell yesterday. And regurgitating something an economist said on CNBC the other day.
I read your post this morning and was going to provide a lengthy reply. But Lusty Lad has already addressed your points. I shall repost them here. And I'll give him a taste of his own medicine! I'll change a few words of his, to make a couple of posts more diplomatic. Seriously, I've found anything he and Texas Contrarian had to say about economics worth reading.
The one thing I'd add is that the labor force participation rate went from 62.7% when the TCJA corporate tax cut became effective in January, 2018, to 63.3% in the months before COVID. It's currently back down around 62.4%. I suspect it would be lower without the improvement in business conditions that resulted from lower corporate tax rates, and other provisions of the TCJA that encouraged companies to invest and add jobs here in the USA instead of foreign countries.
Please note LustyLad's comments about the increase in government revenues after the tax cuts. Also the chart showing annual deficits from 2009 to 2017. Both are particularly enlightening.
Changes from the original text, to make it more diplomatic, are in red.
Hmmm... so you're saying Trump kept a good economy chugging along with low inflation, until Biden came in and had sex with what Trump put in place?
Originally Posted by lustylad
But heck, you don't have to take Tiny's word for it, 1b1. Or Texas Contrarian's word. Or mine.
Here's a quick study published last year by the economists at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank:
https://www.frbsf.org/economic-resea...her-countries/
"...since the first half of 2021, U.S. inflation has increasingly outpaced inflation in other developed countries. Estimates suggest that fiscal support measures designed to counteract the severity of the pandemic’s economic effect may have contributed to this divergence by raising inflation about 3 percentage points by the end of 2021."
Originally Posted by lustylad
We actually DID experience a recession last year. GDP growth was negative in the first half of 2022. Economists widely agree on the definition of a recession - it's 2 consecutive quarterly declines in real GDP. Instead of acknowledging this fact last year while characterizing the downturn as brief, shallow and mild, the Biden team tried to deny it happened altogether.
By the way 1b1 - I don't follow your argument that low unemployment makes another recession unlikely. That's like saying the tail wags the dog.
The jobless rate doesn't propel the economy. It's the other way around. The level of economic activity drives the jobless rate up or down. That's why unemployment is called a "lagging" indicator.
On what specific economic metrics are we outperforming the rest of the world?
Not economic growth.
Here are the latest IMF comparisons. US growth was 2.0% in 2022 (despite being negative in the first half) versus 3.4% for the world economy.
For this year, the IMF is projecting US growth of 1.4%, less than half the rate it is forecasting for the global economy.
Originally Posted by lustylad
That's correct. The (pre-COVID) labor force participation rate at the start of 2020 was 63.3% versus 62.4% last month. The difference may not sound like a lot, but it translates into almost 2.5 million American workers who have dropped out of the labor force and not returned.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART
Biden boasted in his SOTU speech that the economy has created 12 million "new" jobs since he took office.
It's true that total employment has increased from 142 million in Jan. 2021 to 154 million last month. Compared with the pre-COVID peak of 152.4 million in Feb. 2020, however, the increase (less than 3 million jobs) looks considerably less impressive.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS#0
Originally Posted by lustylad
You can verify this by looking it up,
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of part-time employees has climbed from 24.6 million in Jan. 2021 to 27.4 million last month. That's an increase of 2.8 million since Biden took office.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12600000
And kindly note that Tiny did not parrot FOX News. His post specifically cites Larry Summers, a well-known Democrat economist, during an appearance on CNN, a liberal cable news channel.
Originally Posted by lustylad
Also kindly note that economists don't use the term "negative deficit."
Originally Posted by lustylad
Do you mean a SURPLUS? If so, you are mistaken.
Trump's predecessor - that's Barack Obama - ran huge budget deficits during all 8 years of his Presidency. The deficits topped $1 billion during each year of his first term (2009-2012). As a percent of GDP, they averaged a record 8.4%. For you to claim Obama was able to "pay for what he spent" (using federal revenues) is incorrect!
As for the Trump tax cuts, have you looked up how much federal revenues have exploded since their enactment? It's truly mind-boggling!
In FY 2017, the federal govt raked in $3.32 trillion.
In FY 2022, the feds sucked in $4.90 trillion... that's an increase of 48%!!!
It's obvious from this explosion that the Trump tax cuts (so demonized by dim-retards) didn't exactly starve the federal govt of revenues!
Question - How many people on this board can say their income soared by 48% in the past 5 years? And if your income did jump that dramatically, were you able to live comfortably within your means? Or did you urinate away all the extra income and go deeper & deeper into debt like the feds habitually do?
Look up the enlightening numbers. It's obvious we have a SPENDING problem, not a REVENUE problem!
Originally Posted by lustylad
