Gentlemen, granted, you have to consider Trump the man to beat for the Republican nomination, based on the polls. The question is can he win a general election? If you look at the average for polls for a Trump/Biden matchup, you'd think it's a toss up. But that's deceiving.Plain spoken common sense. This is exactly what I believe !
Historically Republicans have turned out to vote in greater numbers than the polls would indicate. As a result, Trump and Republican Congressmen won by greater margins than were predicted by the polls, up through 2020.
In 2022 though, it was the other way around. Here's a more extreme illustration, the Senate race between Don Bolduc (R) and Maggie Hassan (D):
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ssan-7379.html
The polls close to the election showed Hassan winning by 1.4%, but she ran away with it and won by 9.1%.
Democrats are mad as hell at Trump because because he tried to steal the 2020 election. They're going to turn out in force if he's the nominee, because they believe the future of American democracy is at stake, and Trump will lose.
It's better to go with another nominee rather than Trump. Any other nominee. Biden, given his age and signs of dementia, is a weak candidate, as long as Trump's not the other choice. Originally Posted by Tiny
That is, seeing the bigger picture long term.