Election Perspectives

And Texas doesn't have the budget problems that CA does. Problems that everyone outside of CA must also now pay. Thanks for making my point.

Do you even read anything I write? I was using CA as an example as they have some of the worst budget problems and are also the worst offenders with out of control spending. You re-cite Texas and state their salaries aren't out of control. Duh!

http://www.sacbee.com/statepay/?name...NS&salarylevel=

Since you like playing with newspaper charts and graphs here is one showing my point.

Average state salary in CA, $57K. Compare some of the positions against their private sector counterparts. State corrections nurses make around $175K. I know quite a few nurses who have been in their field for 15+ years who make no where near this amount.

But then again, you don't need me to do your research for you do you TTH?

But for those who want a clear explanation of what happened and what should be done, Joe Stiglitz book, Freefall: America, Free Markets, and the Sinking of the World Economy, is a great read. Yes, he's a Nobel Prize winning Economist (probably one of the two best economist working in the U.S. today, in my estimation), but his explanations are well written and clear even if you have a limited economics background. Originally Posted by TexTushHog

Before mentioning a Nobel prize winner, keep in mind that BEFORE he was sworn into office, Barak Hussein Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize for doing ab-so-fucking-lutely NOTHING at all! He spent the 3-4 years prior to winning the 2008 election on the campaign trail and when in his job as a US Senator, he missed many many votes or he'd do like he did in Chicago and vote "Here" or "Present"

Mentioning a Nobel Prize in this thread should be of the same value as an escort ad on Craigslist or BP saying 100% free if not me!

Before mentioning a Nobel prize winner, keep in mind that BEFORE he was sworn into office, Barak Hussein Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize for doing ab-so-fucking-lutely NOTHING at all! He spent the 3-4 years prior to winning the 2008 election on the campaign trail and when in his job as a US Senator, he missed many many votes or he'd do like he did in Chicago and vote "Here" or "Present"

Mentioning a Nobel Prize in this thread should be of the same value as an escort ad on Craigslist or BP saying 100% free if not me! Originally Posted by LazurusLong

Well, hell, piss on Jonas Salk, then...LOL! All Nobel Prizes are absolutely worthless since Obama (unjustifiably) was awarded one in an over the top "feel good" moment. BTW, that object outside the kitchen window laying in the bath water is the baby.

OK, I'll concede, if only to move the discussion along, that there are state workers in some states who are overpaid. Great, BUT, what does it have to do with the fact that they would have been laid off and become unemployed? That's the real-time issue - period. Now, like the union auto workers, they could have renegotiated the contract and perhaps saved some or all of the jobs. The facts, once again, are that when the auto workers did renegotiate their contracts on more than one occasion, many lost jobs and went on, ? guess where?, unemployment. And, in the mean time while negotiations were going on, where's their pay coming from? Not so simple, eh?

Bolt, the way you conduct your business is the same as I conduct mine BUT if either you or I think we have anything in common with "big business," and especially those in the financial sector who have the wherewithal to fuck the economy WAY UP, we need to sit down saw our heads open and check for content. Any of those operations would eat small businesses in a heartbeat if they figured they needed to. I've spent too many years working with big oil companies and big manufacturing conglomerates and dodged too many bullets in those areas to believe otherwise. Small businesses and big businesses have very little in common regardless of what the National Chamber of Commerce or the National Federation of Independent Businesses say.

R4C,

I still don't agree they would have been laid off. If stimulus would have been a loan with either repayment terms or forgiving the debt in exchange for reform (sort of like GM) then people can keep their jobs. If the stimulus had not existing you can't say for sure that the unions and government, under the threat of insolvancy, wouldn't have taken more immediate steps to resolve the issue.

Just because they are big entities doesn't mean that under stress they aren't intelligent enough to come to real world conclusions. The goverment, just as always, republican or democrat, hates to make hard choices that may hurt one group or another.

The stimulus bill was flawed in two respects -- it was two small and it was not as well designed as it should have been. But it was indisputably necessary. Originally Posted by TexTushHog

I agree with you that the "stimulus bill" was poorly designed, but the notion that it was "too small" is simply ridiculous. Such measures never work as intended, and just serve to make the problem worse if you're already running a large structural deficit. History is quite clear on that.

And it was completely unnecessary. History is very clear on that also.

We discussed the issue quite thoroughly here:

http://eccie.net/showthread.php?t=116033

It's a very long thread. You might skip through most of it, but please note post numbers 20, 21, 29, 32, 37, 40, 46, and 53. You can see where TexTushHog is coming from, and that he buys into the Krugman/Stiglitz fantasy world where big surges of government spending are always the recommended prescription for almost any economic ill. I explained in some detail why that's patent nonsense, and thats it's never increased the prosperity of the nation any time it's been tried. And it's been tried plenty of times!

Please ignore post #54. Perhaps that was not one of TTH's proudest moments. (Of course, when some people are getting shellacked in a debate, and when it's pointed out to them that the information contained in a link they posted does nothing to bolster the argument they are trying to make, they lash out with gratuitous personal insults.)

...Out of control my ass. Its just fucking unbelievable that people can even spout this shit with a straight face, much less that there are fools that will believe it... Originally Posted by TexTushHog

And a fine "good morning" to you, too, sir!

Anyone who apparently has no idea what's busted the budgets of California, New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and a number of other states -- and will continue to further bust those budgets if reforms are not soon undertaken -- must have been living in a cave somewhere for the last decade or so.

CaptainMidnight is under the thrall of economists wedded to the now discredited Efficient Market Hypothesis. Originally Posted by TexTushHog

You're conflating a couple of different things. EMH has nothing to do with this. What we're talking about is the failure of neo-Keynesian macro models to work in the real world. Many of them show fiscal multipliers greater than 1.5 for things like transfer payments and social spending. Mark Zandi famously said last year that the calculated multiplier for food stamp distributions is 1.73. That's just ridiculous. I can't believe anybody still buys into that crap.

Believing this discredited nonsense is not significantly different from falling for Bastiat's "Broken Window Fallacy."

If you buy into it, you might as well start believing in astrology.

It makes about as much sense.

If a government worker is laid off, I'd hope like hell and bell would ring and an Angel would get their wings!!

The best way to control government spending is to reduce the number of employees feeding at the taxpayer trough!

If you have 5 people sitting around talking about how to spend money the ideas are somewhat limited but when you have to hire outside consultants and pay for presentations and other shit to try and figure out what to do with all the revenue from the income streams known as TAXPAYERS money being drained away faster and faster each day, get rid of them as fast as possible.

Corporations that grow too top heavy collapse on their own weight.

For the football fans out there, let me bring up the fucked up former owner of the Cleveland Browns. SI did an article about his organization and showed in great detail how his entire family and hangers-on, over 100 folks, were employed by the team in the front office doing nothing more than what other teams did better and less expensively with many times 1/3 to 1/2 less employees.

Corporate America goes through reductions in force and finds way to be more efficient. They improve processes, stream line technology and other ways to make more work with less people.

Our government is THE largest business out there and very few people working there have ANY real world education or ability or skills on how to work smarter because they have zero incentive to do so. And face no punishment for their fucked up mistakes.

Education is another example. Someone asked whether we need 30+ students in a classroom when in fact, there is plenty of money to pay teachers a great salary but just like other forms of government, school districts are so top heavy and those in charge do nothing to add value but incur great costs off the property tax payers. ONLY by allowing folks a true free choise of how to have their tax dollars spent, charter, private, anything other than the current public schools with the top heavy overhead and in many places, teacher's unions where they can't fire a teacher for any reason, will education change.

I just dug out my 3rd grade class photo and counted. Of the kids who were present that day, I count 33 kids. Funny. Back in the early 60's kids ALL learned and most if not all excelled. We didn't have teacher's aides, we didn't have all the bull that today's progressive agenda's try to cram into the kids head with things like gay agendas or save the planet activities that waste more time that actually educate the kids. Not sure why some think it would be horrible to limit a class size to a smaller number except that in my class, if a kid was mis-behaving, they had 2 options, let the Principal exact discipline or send you home to your parents and let them take care of it and you can bet that most took the swat and the parents never heard about it but the bleeding heart liberals/progressives became convinced that no kid can get an F and kid can ever get a swat on their butt or they'd be marred for life yet looking back at kids from my school system, we didn't have psychos blowing up crap or school shootings.

The BEST thing that could have happened would have been to allow those government employees to be laid off and let them go fend in the real world for a job like the rest of the private sector folks.

Lazaurus:


Corporate America goes through reductions in force and finds way to be more efficient. They improve processes, stream line technology and other ways to make more work with less people.

Unfortunately, when that happens, all of the space that would have been taken up by laid off government employees, now goes to displaced workers on unemployment, early Social Security, Medicaid.

I just dug out my 3rd grade class photo and counted. Of the kids who were present that day, I count 33 kids. Funny. Back in the early 60's kids ALL learned and most if not all excelled. We didn't have teacher's aides, we didn't have all the bull that today's progressive agenda's try to cram into the kids head with things like gay agendas or save the planet activities that waste more time that actually educate the kids. Not sure why some think it would be horrible to limit a class size to a smaller number except that in my class, if a kid was mis-behaving, they had 2 options, let the Principal exact discipline or send you home to your parents and let them take care of it and you can bet that most took the swat and the parents never heard about it but the bleeding heart liberals/progressives became convinced that no kid can get an F and kid can ever get a swat on their butt or they'd be marred for life yet looking back at kids from my school system, we didn't have psychos blowing up crap or school shootings.

The BEST thing that could have happened would have been to allow those government employees to be laid off and let them go fend in the real world for a job like the rest of the private sector folks. Originally Posted by LazurusLong

LOL!!! I wondered who'd come up with another "Golden Days of Yesteryear" when it came to class size. Not that you're wrong (and, given the times, you're not - I regularly did 30-35+ as well) but we live TODAY, not in the '50's and '60's and "NOW" is what it is, end of story. All of the whining and crying about returning to those times is a waste of breath and bandwidth. Teachers of today have to deal with "helicopter parents" and their spoiled, entitlement-ridden brats in the more well to do schools and teachers in poorer districts have to deal with unpunishable, hoodlumesque malcontents. Unfortunately, the problems are about the here and now instead of the past.

Regarding the public employees, while you may sort of have a point that many government workers are lazy and parties to bloated over-staffing, I'm going to have to go with the conclusion that since your previous examples are pretty leaky and do not really deal with the situation as it IS, but rather, dwelling on your idea of what it SHOULD be, this example is, alas, unhelpful (and unreliable), too.

R4C,

I still don't agree they would have been laid off. If stimulus would have been a loan with either repayment terms or forgiving the debt in exchange for reform (sort of like GM) then people can keep their jobs. If the stimulus had not existing you can't say for sure that the unions and government, under the threat of insolvancy, wouldn't have taken more immediate steps to resolve the issue.

Just because they are big entities doesn't mean that under stress they aren't intelligent enough to come to real world conclusions. The goverment, just as always, republican or democrat, hates to make hard choices that may hurt one group or another. Originally Posted by Boltfan

That plan might work except that the states would probably (but not necessarily) have to either have to raise their taxes, issue bonds or come up with another scheme to raise taxes in order to pay the loans back all of which would raise taxes, though perhaps, not nationally. Since the underlying theme here is NOT raising taxes, this tactic may not pass muster in that area.

The main thing to keep in mind is the actual environment of near panic and uncertainty which was prevalent at the time. Whether we like it or not, and this is yet another condemnation of those who precipitated the collapse, time was of the essence. Both sides, at the time, really didn't have the luxury of even weeks of contemplation in order to come up with some sort of plan - remember "the whole world was watching," and this wasn't then and isn't now strictly a problem contained to the USA. I read yesterday that Ireland's banking system is in the shitter and the EU's trying to figure out how big of a bail out to give them and Ireland's in one hell of a lot better shape than Greece was. So, the hits just keep on coming, Wolfman Jack...LOL. Presently, we are enjoying the benefits of hindsight being 20/20 and forgetting what was really happening at the time. This mess could have spiraled out of control and we'd be talking depression instead of Recession.

Lots of hypotheticals to be sure. I don't agree that there was not time. At that time there were plenty of folks saying we need to slow down and read the package. It wasn't that long ago that this happened that we can't remember the debate.

Now, as for Wolfman Jack, that brings back great memories from him on the Mighty 690 AM in San Diego.

Captain, just for you:

http://smu.edu/tateseries/speakers/default.asp

Joe Stiglitz is lecturing at SMU the Tuesday after Thanksgiving. Hurry, tickets are still available. But only second balcony seats!!

Thanks, TushHog!

Sounds like a real blast.

I wouldn't miss it for anything in the world!

The main thing to keep in mind is the actual environment of near panic and uncertainty which was prevalent at the time. Whether we like it or not, and this is yet another condemnation of those who precipitated the collapse, time was of the essence. Both sides, at the time, really didn't have the luxury of even weeks of contemplation in order to come up with some sort of plan - remember "the whole world was watching," and this wasn't then and isn't now strictly a problem contained to the USA. I read yesterday that Ireland's banking system is in the shitter and the EU's trying to figure out how big of a bail out to give them and Ireland's in one hell of a lot better shape than Greece was. So, the hits just keep on coming, Wolfman Jack...LOL. Presently, we are enjoying the benefits of hindsight being 20/20 and forgetting what was really happening at the time. This mess could have spiraled out of control and we'd be talking depression instead of Recession. Originally Posted by Randy4Candy

Time was of the essence?

You honestly think that?

Scan through this and check out all the credible folks who predicted the banking crisis as a direct result of loose credit which led to no money down and over inflation of housing prices. Anyone who honestly thinks this was not a predictable result of the policy et by government in an ongoing social agenda for way to long needs to do more than listen to NPR sound bites and spend some serious time researching.

"Lebanese born Nicholas Taleb predicted the banking crisis in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Using his own theories and methods, Taleb predicted that the banking system was likely to collapse because of the fragile interconnections. Globalisation had made the risks even greater. He points to the possibility of global collapse."

Look around the world right now and you'll see signs that unless things are done to get back under control and cut spending the Great Depression will seem like a speed bump compared to what may be looming around the corner and the undying belief by some on this thread that the stimulus package did more good than actual harm amazes me.

Also predicted by Economics Nouriel Roubini and Joe Stiglitz, although they focused more on the root cause -- the housing bubble that precipitated the banking crisis. A number of traders, at GS, and in hedge funds (most notably Michael Burry) also profited handsomely by bets on market failure.

That being said, once you see the market collapse, even if you foresaw it, it does not necessarily follow that you have the luxury to time to react to the collapse. You may have to act quickly, indeed almost overnight in some cases.