- Austin Ellen
- 01-18-2020, 09:11 AM
Ha!
- Austin Ellen
- 01-18-2020, 09:43 AM
Really, I mean really dude.
- Dev Null
- 01-18-2020, 11:46 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...-election-2020
Quoting from the article:
'The red wall is cracking': Buttigieg gets ovation after expecting protests
His campaign feared hostility in Iowa’s most conservative county. But the local response told a different story
Pete Buttigieg knew he was foraying into unfriendly confines when he was en route to Orange City, the seat of Iowa’s most conservative county.
The campaign braced for protesters in light of public burnings of library books depicting gay relationships and vociferous opposition to the town’s annual gay Pride festival, said Ben Halle, Buttigieg’s Iowa communications director, to the Guardian.
Halle said didn’t know what to expect as far as a crowd, but he said it was fair to expect opposition as Buttigieg’s campaign rolled into town.
“What you need to realize with Sioux county is there’s a very strong religious flavor there, from their courts to their public squares,” said Ned Bjornstad, a former elected prosecutor in north-west Iowa turned veteran defense attorney who practices regularly in Orange City. “For a candidate like Buttigieg, I’d expect protesters.”
There weren’t any.
As Buttigieg entered the Prairie Winds Events Center in downtown Orange City, a crowd of around 200 instead roared in a standing ovation.
Some Democrats believe that Trump’s behavior in office and scandal-plagued personal and political life may be hurting him even in this Republican stronghold and opening an unlikely door to candidates like Buttigieg – who himself confesses a deep religious faith.
“Look at it this way: the red wall has begun to crack,” said the former state senator David Johnson, who used to represent the area. Johnson left the Republican party and declared himself an independent after it declared Trump its nominee.
Quoting from the article:
'The red wall is cracking': Buttigieg gets ovation after expecting protests
His campaign feared hostility in Iowa’s most conservative county. But the local response told a different story
Pete Buttigieg knew he was foraying into unfriendly confines when he was en route to Orange City, the seat of Iowa’s most conservative county.
The campaign braced for protesters in light of public burnings of library books depicting gay relationships and vociferous opposition to the town’s annual gay Pride festival, said Ben Halle, Buttigieg’s Iowa communications director, to the Guardian.
Halle said didn’t know what to expect as far as a crowd, but he said it was fair to expect opposition as Buttigieg’s campaign rolled into town.
“What you need to realize with Sioux county is there’s a very strong religious flavor there, from their courts to their public squares,” said Ned Bjornstad, a former elected prosecutor in north-west Iowa turned veteran defense attorney who practices regularly in Orange City. “For a candidate like Buttigieg, I’d expect protesters.”
There weren’t any.
As Buttigieg entered the Prairie Winds Events Center in downtown Orange City, a crowd of around 200 instead roared in a standing ovation.
Some Democrats believe that Trump’s behavior in office and scandal-plagued personal and political life may be hurting him even in this Republican stronghold and opening an unlikely door to candidates like Buttigieg – who himself confesses a deep religious faith.
“Look at it this way: the red wall has begun to crack,” said the former state senator David Johnson, who used to represent the area. Johnson left the Republican party and declared himself an independent after it declared Trump its nominee.
- Why_Yes_I_Do
- 01-18-2020, 01:41 PM
... a crowd of around 200 instead roared in a standing ovation. Originally Posted by Dev Null
That's about the size of the line for a urinal at a TRUMP2020 rally
- Dev Null
- 01-18-2020, 01:50 PM
That's one small ultra-conservative town in Iowa with a population of 6000, if you'd bothered to read for comprehension instead of ammunition.
https://orangecityiowa.com/visitors/...-event-center/
The pavilion can accommodate approximately 200 guests.
The event center as a whole can accommodate up to 400, if you count the breakout rooms.
Trump doesn't bother with small venues like that. He mostly favors large arenas in major cities so that he can brag about the turnout being much larger than it actually was:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...-unbelievable/
https://orangecityiowa.com/visitors/...-event-center/
The pavilion can accommodate approximately 200 guests.
The event center as a whole can accommodate up to 400, if you count the breakout rooms.
Trump doesn't bother with small venues like that. He mostly favors large arenas in major cities so that he can brag about the turnout being much larger than it actually was:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...-unbelievable/
- SpeedRacerXXX
- 01-19-2020, 08:42 AM
Wow Speed, really? I just got back from Vegas and stayed at the fabulous Palazzo where I met a bunch of fellow Trump supporters - especially at the poker table - I told them how I predicted a Trump win in 2016 - yeah, they all predicted a Trump win for 2020. I said "I'm all in!" Originally Posted by Austin EllenPredicting a Trump victory does not show one's knowledge of political issues. Over the years I have asked you questions regarding your reasoning behind statements that you have made. Rarely do you respond in any way other than shaking your pom poms and reiterating you often-stated opinion that "Trump is great".
You also predicted Hillary Clinton would be the 2020 Democratic candidate for POTUS. Still think that way?
Just for fun -- how do you see the 2020 Congressional elections going? Will Republicans regain control of the House? How do you see the Senate results? Will Republicans hold their seats in Colorado and Arizona? Will Democrats hold their seat in Alabama?
- Why_Yes_I_Do
- 01-19-2020, 08:57 AM
The pavilion can accommodate approximately 200 guests Originally Posted by Dev NullGoldfish size is based on the size of their tank
- Why_Yes_I_Do
- 01-19-2020, 09:15 AM
Notice how she won't address specific questions to carry on a cognizant discussion. Originally Posted by Precious_b
One does not have a cognizant discussion. One might be cognizant of a particular discussion. One might be cognizant of the proclivities of a participant in a discussion. One might be cognizant of the senseless waste of time in participating in a particular discussion.
Just in case you were not cognizant of the standard use of the word.
- Austin Ellen
- 01-19-2020, 10:48 AM
Poor Hillary. She's just out there thinking "WTF?" I don't see how she could join so late but anything can happen. I'll tell you who the dem nominee will be - Joe Biden. I think it's going to be Biden and Trump. I'm still shaking my head over that but that's how I see it. I think the house will go Republican. I think the senate will stay Republican.
Colorado could go either way but Arizona - I think that will go red. Alabama - could go either way.
Bootom line - there is a reckoning coming and it will be reflected in the polls.
The following is a good example of what I believe.
Read Why Trump will win again in 2020 - https://spectator.us/trump-win-again...-davis-hanson/
Colorado could go either way but Arizona - I think that will go red. Alabama - could go either way.
Bootom line - there is a reckoning coming and it will be reflected in the polls.
The following is a good example of what I believe.
Read Why Trump will win again in 2020 - https://spectator.us/trump-win-again...-davis-hanson/
Predicting a Trump victory does not show one's knowledge of political issues. Over the years I have asked you questions regarding your reasoning behind statements that you have made. Rarely do you respond in any way other than shaking your pom poms and reiterating you often-stated opinion that "Trump is great".
You also predicted Hillary Clinton would be the 2020 Democratic candidate for POTUS. Still think that way?
Just for fun -- how do you see the 2020 Congressional elections going? Will Republicans regain control of the House? How do you see the Senate results? Will Republicans hold their seats in Colorado and Arizona? Will Democrats hold their seat in Alabama? Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
- Dev Null
- 01-19-2020, 12:01 PM
https://www.inquirer.com/business/tr...-20191024.html
Excerpts from the article:
Our statistical models predict that President Donald Trump will cruise to victory — if the economy is performing a year from now as it is today, if Trump has roughly the same job approval rating, and if voter turnout is not much different from past elections.
To test the ability of these models to accurately predict future elections, we determined how well the models would have predicted elections going back to the 1980 contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Each model nails all 10 elections since then.
We’ve been predicting presidential elections since 1994 and got it right every time, except in 2016. The model we were using then incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win. In the postmortem, we figured out that our mistake was not accounting for voter turnout. We had assumed that turnout would be typical. It was anything but, as Trump got out his vote, but Clinton didn’t.
For the 2020 election, our models include voter turnout for the nonincumbent party. It turns out that predicting turnout is very hard, particularly a year away from Election Day, because turnout depends on who the candidates are and how excited voters are about them. So we don’t try. But we can determine what will happen if turnout is higher or lower than is typical for the incumbent party.
Democrats, listen up. If you want a new president in 2020, you must all vote. Indeed, the election results will swing if Democratic turnout is similar to the record turnout during Obama’s first election in 2008, when the raging financial crisis pumped up the Democrats. The extraordinary turnout by the Democrats in the 2018 midterm election certainly suggests this is doable.
Turnout is critical in three key swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and you guessed it, Pennsylvania. In fact, Pennsylvania will be the most critically important in determining our next president, and it boils down to only a few counties in the state, including Luzerne and Schuylkill (Wilkes-Barre and environs), and Westmoreland and Washington Counties near Pittsburgh. It’s not about whether the president or the Democratic candidate wins these counties, but about Democratic turnout in those counties. If it is high enough, it will put Pennsylvania in the Democratic column and the Democratic candidate in the White House.
All of this assumes that a year from now, the economy will be performing about as well as it is today and President Trump’s approval rating is more or less the same. But if the economy and stock market are weaker, or if the president’s low popularity is slumping further, then the Democrats’ chances of retaking the presidency are even better. And vice versa.
End of excerpts from the article.
It's just one model, and it's entirely possible that Trump fatigue will lead to greater turnout, which the model doesn't account for. But it's not a foregone conclusion.
It's up to voters, and it's unlikely that Texas voter turnout will change enough to make a difference in the presidential election. The battleground states in 2016 are much more likely to be the deciding factor.
But Texas could flip the state legislature in 2020 and undo the partisan redistricting, aka gerrymandering, that the GOP has saddled us with. This could have a huge impact on our influence in the 2024 presidential election:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...tate-blue-2020
Excerpts from the article:
Our statistical models predict that President Donald Trump will cruise to victory — if the economy is performing a year from now as it is today, if Trump has roughly the same job approval rating, and if voter turnout is not much different from past elections.
To test the ability of these models to accurately predict future elections, we determined how well the models would have predicted elections going back to the 1980 contest between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Each model nails all 10 elections since then.
We’ve been predicting presidential elections since 1994 and got it right every time, except in 2016. The model we were using then incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win. In the postmortem, we figured out that our mistake was not accounting for voter turnout. We had assumed that turnout would be typical. It was anything but, as Trump got out his vote, but Clinton didn’t.
For the 2020 election, our models include voter turnout for the nonincumbent party. It turns out that predicting turnout is very hard, particularly a year away from Election Day, because turnout depends on who the candidates are and how excited voters are about them. So we don’t try. But we can determine what will happen if turnout is higher or lower than is typical for the incumbent party.
Democrats, listen up. If you want a new president in 2020, you must all vote. Indeed, the election results will swing if Democratic turnout is similar to the record turnout during Obama’s first election in 2008, when the raging financial crisis pumped up the Democrats. The extraordinary turnout by the Democrats in the 2018 midterm election certainly suggests this is doable.
Turnout is critical in three key swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and you guessed it, Pennsylvania. In fact, Pennsylvania will be the most critically important in determining our next president, and it boils down to only a few counties in the state, including Luzerne and Schuylkill (Wilkes-Barre and environs), and Westmoreland and Washington Counties near Pittsburgh. It’s not about whether the president or the Democratic candidate wins these counties, but about Democratic turnout in those counties. If it is high enough, it will put Pennsylvania in the Democratic column and the Democratic candidate in the White House.
All of this assumes that a year from now, the economy will be performing about as well as it is today and President Trump’s approval rating is more or less the same. But if the economy and stock market are weaker, or if the president’s low popularity is slumping further, then the Democrats’ chances of retaking the presidency are even better. And vice versa.
End of excerpts from the article.
It's just one model, and it's entirely possible that Trump fatigue will lead to greater turnout, which the model doesn't account for. But it's not a foregone conclusion.
It's up to voters, and it's unlikely that Texas voter turnout will change enough to make a difference in the presidential election. The battleground states in 2016 are much more likely to be the deciding factor.
But Texas could flip the state legislature in 2020 and undo the partisan redistricting, aka gerrymandering, that the GOP has saddled us with. This could have a huge impact on our influence in the 2024 presidential election:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...tate-blue-2020
- Precious_b
- 01-19-2020, 02:33 PM
Predicting a Trump victory does not show one's knowledge of political issues. Over the years I have asked you questions regarding your reasoning behind statements that you have made. Rarely do you respond in any way other than shaking your pom poms and reiterating you often-stated opinion that "Trump is great".I don't know who is at the front of the queue. Is it you or my waiting for an answer when Mexico is paying for the Wall. If we go by the birds of a feather bit, we will never get her to admit trump lied.
... Originally Posted by SpeedRacerXXX
One does not have a cognizant discussion. One might be cognizant of a particular discussion. One might be cognizant of the proclivities of a participant in a discussion. One might be cognizant of the senseless waste of time in participating in a particular discussion.Damn Grammar Nazis! Who let them out again?! Forgive me for lapsing my OED subscription. But I err greatly to use ellen and cognizant in the same statement.
Just in case you were not cognizant of the standard use of the word.
- winn dixie
- 01-19-2020, 05:05 PM
All ya'll big ol mean mens cant even handle one lil ol gal? Bahahahaha Shes whooping ya'lls ass! 
- Dev Null
- 01-19-2020, 06:41 PM
Says the guy who hasn't made one cognizant argument. Yes, I said it! Grammar Nazi's be damned.
- winn dixie
- 01-19-2020, 07:24 PM
Says the guy who hasn't made one cognizant argument. Yes, I said it! Grammar Nazi's be damned. Originally Posted by Dev NullMany of us have and libs just dont get it! I dont have time to color pictures for ya'll to understand! But please post ya'lls biased articles till yall are lib blue in the face.
Dev Null;1061924079]Says the guy who hasn't made one cognizant argument. Yes, I said it! Grammar Nazi's be damned
Exactly!! When will you guys make one truthful statement thats not biased or wrong!
Trump will win.. And ya'll can continue the circle jerk crew for 4 more y[t]ears! bahahahahahahahahahahahahahhah ahahahhaa
- stikiwikit
- 01-19-2020, 07:40 PM
"Exactly!! When will you guys make one truthful statement thats not biased or wrong!"
Posted by a man(?) whose president has told over 15000 documented falsehoods.
Posted by a man(?) whose president has told over 15000 documented falsehoods.