Intelligencer Key Coronavirus Model Now Predicts Many Fewer U.S. Deaths Adam K. Raymond 2 hrs ago

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ke...du1?li=BBnb7Kz



A Sunday update of a prominent COVID-19 forecasting model suggests that fewer lives will be lost during the first wave of the coronavirus outbreak than previously thought.
© Angus Mordant/Bloomberg via Getty Images A key COVID-19 model reduced downward the number of hospital beds predicted to be needed at peak outbreak. Angus Mordant/Bloomberg via Getty Images The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) now predicts that 81,766 people will die of COVID-19 in the U.S. through early August. When the model was last updated, on April 2, it predicted 11,765 deaths more deaths, for a total of 93,531.


The model, which has been cited by the White House, relies on numbers from China, Italy, Spain, and areas around the U.S. The change in prediction is due to “a massive infusion of new data,” IHME director Dr. Christopher Murray said in a press release.


According to its website, the IHME model was developed to “provide hospitals, health-care workers, policymakers, and the public with crucial information about what demands COVID-19 may place on hospital capacity and resources, so that they could begin to plan.” The model’s latest update includes several important changes related to that planning. Many fewer hospital beds will be needed at peak than previously anticipated, according to the new projections. The April 5 update predicts the need for 140,823 total hospital beds and 29,210 ICU beds at the peak of the outbreak. Those numbers are down 121,269 and 10,517, respectively.
The model also revised downward the prediction for the number of ventilators needed at the height of the outbreak. It now predicts the need for 18,992 ventilators, down from 31,782.
One thing that didn’t change between the April 2 and April 5 models is the projected date of the outbreak’s peak. The model still predicts an April 16 apex for the daily COVID-19 death rate. Hospital use is expected to peak on April 15.
Among the information that led to the April 5 changes is data from states showing lower ratios of hospital admissions to deaths. That results in “predicted peak hospital resource use — total beds, ICU beds, and invasive ventilators — that is lower than previously estimated,” according to the IHME’s explanation of the revised predictions.
The IHME model is based on several key assumptions about social distancing in the U.S. It assumes all states will lock down — closing schools, telling residents to stay at home, closing nonessential businesses — and that “implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.” Crucially, it also assumes the continuation of social distancing until early August, well beyond the April 30 guidelines currently set forth by the White House.
Though the update of the model appears to be good news, at least for now, Murray counseled caution. “If social-distancing measures are relaxed or not implemented, the U.S. will see greater death tolls, the death peak will be later, the burden on hospitals will be much greater, and the economic costs will continue to grow,” he said.




A decrease in predicted case mortality rate is always good news.

Hopefully medical interventions can decrease that a great deal further.
and shorten this pandemic.



Fascist DPST's - nazi pelosi and her henchmen - are crying bitter tears.

" first wave of the coronavirus outbreak " Yes. They are expecting multiple waves.

And also shows indicators that flattening the curve may be working.
But, make no mistake, this thing will be around for a long, long, time. And there will be multiple waves until the herd immunity realism occurs. We're buying time so the med geeks come up with a vaccine (that works).

As far as I know we still don't have an HIV vaccine that works.

We may not be able to afford "buying the medical community more time" and we may be fooling ourselves that we are actually "buying more time." The whole "social distancing" thing may not have "a lot of meat on the bone."

Pelosi and Facists are cryings over this news?

Could you provide any links to that

Absent that, oebsy, STFU.

Pelosi and Facists are cryings over this news?

Could you provide any links to that

Absent that, oebsy, STFU. Originally Posted by HoeHummer

the only person that needs to STFU is yous!


yous needs to go to the excrement garden.


yup, your fav boytoy is there with your butt plug.

Pelosi and Facists are cryings over this news?

Could you provide any links to that

Absent that, oebsy, STFU. Originally Posted by HoeHummer

Dude just look at the posts here. Trump haters want this to be as bad as possible, so much so that they are against a drug that has shown great promise because the President endorsed it. It’s party over population.

. It’s party over population. Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

its always been that party over population

its the environment you know

then once the deplorables are eliminated, along with old people that have a call on the budget

they will begin the infighting

Those shitheads threw darts at a board and came up with ridiculously bad numbers and cost the economy trillions.

They should be held accountable for their very shitty projections.

Guns or knives?

Dude just look at the posts here. Trump haters want this to be as bad as possible, so much so that they are against a drug that has shown great promise because the President endorsed it. It’s party over population. Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

That’s a fucking lie, as a self proclaimed devout trump hater there’s only one person I want to see contract the Virus.

You only need one guess...right?

Fuck right off dude. You and your ilk would LOVE to see mass graves in every state because you think it’d help that geriatric kiddy sniffer in November. Own it man.

Right on cue - j666 and his only contribution -"It's a Lie" about anything other than his own rants.

Get some help j666 - it is desperately needed.

I predicted a couple of weeks ago this would bite the democrats and the media in the ass. Just run a montage of Joe, Nancy, and Rachel saying Trump is hysterical then follow it up with several minutes of media democrats calling for millions of deaths. Reminds me of the democratic hysterics prior to the first Gulf War. Remember those thousands of body bags that they said Bush would fill.

Fuck right off dude. You and your ilk would LOVE to see mass graves in every state because you think it’d help that geriatric kiddy sniffer in November. Own it man. Originally Posted by Jacuzzme

What the actual fuck are yous talking about, dude?

Do yous or any of yous Trumpholians have anything to back up this shameless accusation than your own bullshits?

I understand that’s you might all be going stir crazy in your studio flats, but I figure yous would be used to it after your frequent stays in the coal mines and the county jails.

Right on cue - j666 and his only contribution -"It's a Lie" about anything other than his own rants.

Get some help j666 - it is desperately needed. Originally Posted by oeb11

Yous are lying and a deserter in the battle for public’s health.

Shame on you.