Registering just 60% of the currently unregistered Black, Latino and Asian voters could turn 8 or 9 red states (including Texas) blue according to a recent NAACP report.
There are 3.7 million unregistered blacks and 4 million unregistered Hispanics and Asian Americans in the “Black Belt” region of the American South. According to Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Ben Jealous, this is an enormous source of untapped political power.
Jealous defines the “Black Belt” as the 13 states stretching from Delaware to Texas, all of which have had a heavy black population since the days of slavery. In recent years the name has taken on a deeper meaning, as black remigration as well as Hispanic and Asian American immigration have resulted in a wholesale reinvention of the region’s demographic profile. Yet the fact remains that in most Black Belt states, progressive candidates generally favored by communities of color rarely win statewide office.
Jealous’ report shows what would happen in each Black Belt state if certain portions of the unregistered voters of color were registered to vote. Registering 60% of black, Hispanic and Asian-American voters would “upset the balance of power” in eight of the Black Belt states: Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. In a presidential election year, when turnout is higher, Alabama would be added to that list.
In Georgia, Republicans have won the past three gubernatorial elections by an average margin of victory of 260,703 votes. But there are also somewhere between 700,000 and 900,000 unregistered people of color in the state, depending on the year. “True South” finds that registering three out of every five of them would yield 290,000 “new voters” of color – even after accounting for turnout rates.
The balance of power in North Carolina is even more tenuous, favoring Republicans over the past three elections by 24,288 votes. “True South” estimates that are about 370,000 unregistered people of color in the state in a given presidential election year, when the state holds gubernatorial elections. Registering just 10% of them would be enough to flip the balance in the state.
Finally, Texas offers an interesting test case for the combined power of black, Hispanic and Asian voters. The balance of power in the second-most-populous state in the nation favors Republicans by 616,807 votes. But there are also an estimated 1.8 million unregistered Hispanic people in the state, and just under one million unregistered blacks and Asians together. Registering 60% of unregistered voters of color in Texas would be enough to upset the balance of power.
Source: Think Progress