The man who predicted Trump's victory says Democrats may have to impeach him to have a chance in 2020

https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/28/polit...020/index.html
Allan Lichtman doesn't mind swimming against the political tide.Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, was the most prominent voice predicting Donald Trump's victory in the run-up to the 2016 election. When Trump won, it marked the 9th(!) straight presidential election where Lichtman had correctly predicted the Electoral College winner. (That's all the way back to 1984, for you math wizards.)






In short: Lichtman is someone the political world should listen to. So I reached out to him on Tuesday to see what he thought of Trump's current chances at a second term next November.
Here's what he told me:
"Trump wins again in 2020 unless six of 13 key factors turn against him. I have no final verdict yet because much could change during the next year. Currently, the President is down only three keys: Republican losses in the midterm elections, the lack of a foreign policy success, and the president's limited appeal to voters."
Lichtman's prediction system is based on 13 true/false statements about the party that holds the White House. If six or more of the statement are false, the incumbent loses. If less than six are false, the incumbent wins. Simple!
Here are Lichtman's 13 criteria -- via his book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" and as summarized by WaPo's Peter Stevenson:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2 Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Which brings me to the most intriguing -- and outside-the-box -- suggestion from my conversation with Lichtman: He believes Democrats in the House not only should be pushing to impeach Trump, but may need to in order for their nominee to win in 2020.
Again, here's Lichtman:
"Democrats are fundamentally wrong about the politics of impeachment and their prospects for victory in 2020. An impeachment and subsequent trial would cost the president a crucial fourth key -- the scandal key -- just as it cost Democrats that key in 2000. The indictment and trial would also expose him to dropping another key by encouraging a serious challenge to his re-nomination. Other potential negative keys include the emergence of a charismatic Democratic challenger, a significant third-party challenge, a foreign policy disaster, or an election-year recession. Without impeachment, however, Democratic prospects are grim."


Which is VERY counter to the conventional wisdom on impeachment espoused by Speaker Nancy Pelosi and other prominent Democrats. Their thinking is that by impeaching Trump, Democrats turn him into a victim -- a role he relishes. And with the Republican-controlled Senate on record as planning to kill any impeachment attempt, most establishment Democrats view the whole thing very, very skeptically.
Of course, that view is informed by the moment -- and the politics of it. Polling suggests most Americans don't support impeachment and already believe Democrats have done enough investigating. Lichtman's 13 factors, on the other hand, don't deal in day-to-day politics or polling. They're based in broad, structural concepts he developed by studying every presidential election from 1860-1980.
Who's right? Who knows! But Lichtman's success in predicting winners means Democrats shouldn't simply ignore his advice on impeachment.







Lichtman was on OANN Tipping Point with Liz Wheeler last nite - and stated that Trump has 3 of the 13 criteria against him at this moment - if it goes to six elements against trump - prediction is he loses the election in 2020 per Lichtman's system.
an interesting take on predictions - and not based strictly on Polls with all the error possibilities.

SR - your comments would be appreciated. Both on Nov 2020 predictions and how Impeachment would affect the election
My guess is Pelosi is in agreement with Lichtman about Impeachment - and is waiting until the proper moment just before the election to have the house vote Articles of Impeachment against Trump.
I think it will backfire on them.


And Now - for the Axis of Socialism and non-constructive "you're a Nazi comments"!!!!!

Have a chance against Pence? That's rich!

He's a Republican with no pussy grabbing or yearbook issues!

The worst thing he does (according to the SocialLiberalNazisAntiTrumperA ntiHetrosexual groupies) is to take his wife on official trips ... and unofficial ones also!

LL - I do not quite see the relevance of the post.
Still - i would vote for Pence over Trump for POTUS in 2020.

not a DPST anywhere in sight to challenge Pence.

LL - I do not quite see the relevance of the post.
Still - i would vote for Pence over Trump for POTUS in 2020.

not a DPST anywhere in sight to challenge Pence. Originally Posted by oeb11

You don't see the "reference" to Pence in 2020 in a thread about impeaching Trump? Really?

With all due respect ...

...do you also believe that impeaching Trump kicks Pence out of office also?

Who ran against Carter after Nixon left?

Ford was originally appointed as VP by Nixon after Agnew resigned, so Ford was not "elected" to the office of VP, but he still was sworn as President when Nixon resigned. So would Pence.

If you want my "point" ... I've been amused at the ignorant SocialistLiberalNazisAntiTrump ers jabbering about impeaching Trump like it's going to "end" the efforts by the current administration to keep this country from becoming a Socialist style government and pissing off Trillions of dollars again! Pence is to the RIGHT of Trump!

LL - with all due respect -Impeaching Trump does not put him out of office, as the Senate is highly unlikely to convict. No "Evidence" of any high crimes or misdemeanors at this time.

I also do not think that an impeachment would change the Republican nomination for 2020- which will be Trump. Nor, as long as Pence is willing to serve- the VP nominee.
I agree - I see Pence as an upright, moral man.


If Trump is convicted in the Senate - Pence is the POTUS and likely 2020 Republican nominee
I would be comfortable with Pence as POTUS in that scenario.


I do agree with Your "Point"Above. Not sure about Pence being to the "Right" or" Left" of Trump - or that it matters.

LL - with all due respect -Impeaching Trump does not put him out of office, as the Senate is highly unlikely to convict.


I do agree with Your "Point"Above. Not sure about Pence being to the "Right" or" Left" of Trump - or that it matters. Originally Posted by oeb11

#1: You are explaining to me the process for "impeachment"? Awfully presumptuous, don't you "think"? As the common terminology is customarily thrown around my remarks IMPLIED the Senate would "convict" him, since otherwise your thread is useless without Trump being thrown out of office ... because for the House to indict him KNOWING the Senate won't convict will only piss more people off who have been "waiting" for the EVIDENCE he colluded with the Russians. That does not sound like a formula for a DNC victory in 2020.

#2: Spend some time listening to Pence. He's quiet! What's that saying?

"Still waters run deep"?

Get off your high horse

I treated you respectfully
You are not a DPST
No need to be a jerk to everyone on Forum.


Topic is Lichtman and his predictive system.

Thank You LL

Geez,
There's no hard evidence to impeach him on, let alone have it go to the senate. Can the Dims impeach him on bullshit? Yes. But if they do that, they are just damaging themselves in the next election.

UC - agreed.

Lichtman predicts the polls are wrong- according to his system at the present time.

UC - agreed.

Lichtman predicts the polls are wrong- according to his system at the present time. Originally Posted by oeb11

Lichtman also continues to say it's too early to tell for sure.

I didn't see him last night, but apparently he's still sticking to the three items he identified when we orginally discussed this back in early June.

But I see several of them as potential turns if Trump doesn't watch himself.

The Tariffs alone could swing 2 to 3 of them alone if he doesn't watch. Doing the right thing as he's finally doing with China, doesn't mean it's politically positive if any economic or foreign policy backlash grows between now and the election.

Agreed - EL.

There are a lot of variables that will influence the 2020 election but with the field of opponents he has to contend with I don't see any of them beating him. I remember the 72' & 84" election and the historic significance of the reputation of a candidate that was much to extreme for the America voters.

The Demoraps vying for the top spot are much to extreme left leaning to win.
Many in the Democrap party are saying that the policies they are proposing are not going to win over the voters in the middle necessary for them to win.

There are a lot of variables that will influence the 2020 election but with the field of opponents he has to contend with I don't see any of them beating him. I remember the 72' & 84" election and the historic significance of the reputation of a candidate that was much to extreme for the America voters.

The Democarps vying for the top spot are much to extreme left leaning to win.
Many in the Democrap party are saying that the policies they are proposing are not going to win over the voters in the middle necessary for them to win. Originally Posted by bb1961

And if you go by Lichtman's 13 points they should have been blow outs and were.

Trump doesn't have the strength in the 13 areas that Nixon and Reagan had.

While I think Trump takes it in 2020, there are still a lot of variables, and I agree his biggest saving grace right now is the horrible field of Dems that are trying to out "left" each other.

LL - I do not quite see the relevance of the post.
Still - i would vote for Pence over Trump for POTUS in 2020.

not a DPST anywhere in sight to challenge Pence. Originally Posted by oeb11

You would vote for a lowly Evangelical Hypocrite like Pence over the King of the Jews. The Chosen One?

Please only cogent and constructive reply's

You don't see the "reference" to Pence in 2020 in a thread about impeaching Trump? Really?

With all due respect ...

...do you also believe that impeaching Trump kicks Pence out of office also?

Who ran against Carter after Nixon left?

Ford was originally appointed as VP by Nixon after Agnew resigned, so Ford was not "elected" to the office of VP, but he still was sworn as President when Nixon resigned. So would Pence.

If you want my "point" ... I've been amused at the ignorant SocialistLiberalNazisAntiTrump ers jabbering about impeaching Trump like it's going to "end" the efforts by the current administration to keep this country from becoming a Socialist style government and pissing off Trillions of dollars again! Pence is to the RIGHT of Trump! Originally Posted by LexusLover

Please Mr KIA. Little man is sensitive. He will be crying for a month about how the DTDS party is a the only path. Oh and Thank you for your service. oops sorry wrong right wing loon