There have been a bunch of articles saying that KC ought to sell their "core", and start over.
In any scenario, except the Royals going deep in the playoffs this year, they are going to suck wind for a while. If they boost revenues enough that they are able to keep some of their core players, they might be good for another year or two. Otherwise, most of the free-agent good talent is going to leave, and they are going to have to start over.
Ending up at 0.500 is the same as ending up 0.400, and at 0.400, you get better picks. The astros have shown clearly that it is better to suck for a while, rather than tread water out of the playoffs.
So why wouldn't the Royals try to win this year? The analytics people sometimes drive me nuts.
- kehaar
- 07-26-2017, 04:48 PM
- Unique_Carpenter
- 07-26-2017, 05:01 PM
Any baseball analyst that is not being paid by one of the ball teams is simply a speculative amateur.
Perhaps a well paid amateur.
Perhaps a well paid amateur.
- Danson&Highsmith
- 07-26-2017, 09:47 PM
I have a lot to say on this topic, but I will try to be as brief as possible. The Royals could never sell and were never going to. The facts are that the core team has great chemistry. You can change peripheral parts, but you can't touch the core because you will do more damage then good. Dyson for Burns, Moss for Morales sure, but trade a Hosmer or Moustakas and you will gut the chemistry and belief of the team. Chemistry is an intangible that a lot of people don't put stock in but it is very important in team sports. A group of players that like and believe in each other can achieve sometimes more than the sum of their talents. If you trade one of the core guys, then it will be like when Boston traded Kendrick Perkins in the NBA. The team never rebounded because their believe and chemistry were shattered. Sure, maybe Boston wasn't going to win it all that year, but they were a good team that liked playing together and could do more together than busting it up. The other fact is that the market in baseball was not going to allow the Royals to get the value back for trading those core pieces this year. They are more valuable to keep and try to make and run through the post season tournament then move to another team.
I like how people quote the Astros as the team that came up with that. They were the most recent example. The Royals actually started that. 2005 - Alex Gordon, 2nd pick, 2006 - Luke Hochevar, 1st pick, 2007 - Mike Moustakas, 2nd pick, 2008 - Eric Hosmer, 3rd pick. And as any Kansas City fan should know, you can't bet the farm on prospects. Trading for prospects sounds wonderful, but the Rays have moved a lot of proven major leaguers for prospects and I don't see them in WS each year. The Royals had a lot of prospects in the late 90's and early 2000's that sounded like the next big thing. Hardly any panned out and the team continued to stink besides that anomaly year of 2003. The team didn't really get good until a decade later and had to overhaul the farm system from the previous management team.
Now you look ahead, I believe the Royals will find a way to keep one of their stars. They won't be as good in the coming years, but the fall may not be as hard as people think. Positions that they are set at; Catcher, SS, 2nd base, LF, RF, DH, at least 3 SP's back (maybe 4 depending on Kennedy), plenty of Bullpen arms back. Now we should have plenty of guys that should be ready to go next season (Dozier, Cuthbert, Mondesi in infield spots, Starling or Dewees in the OF). If those guys can play, then you are good for a few more years and need more supplemental pieces. If they are bad, then you get the high picks you want to rebuild the farm and be good in 2022. The next core right now is probably in the low minor leagues with C Chase Vallot in High A, OF Khalil Lee in Low A ball, 1B Nick Pratto in Rookie ball (just drafted in 2017), so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Royals draft a 3B or SP next year to be part of that. Just have to see what management does and whether that changes in the coming years.
I like how people quote the Astros as the team that came up with that. They were the most recent example. The Royals actually started that. 2005 - Alex Gordon, 2nd pick, 2006 - Luke Hochevar, 1st pick, 2007 - Mike Moustakas, 2nd pick, 2008 - Eric Hosmer, 3rd pick. And as any Kansas City fan should know, you can't bet the farm on prospects. Trading for prospects sounds wonderful, but the Rays have moved a lot of proven major leaguers for prospects and I don't see them in WS each year. The Royals had a lot of prospects in the late 90's and early 2000's that sounded like the next big thing. Hardly any panned out and the team continued to stink besides that anomaly year of 2003. The team didn't really get good until a decade later and had to overhaul the farm system from the previous management team.
Now you look ahead, I believe the Royals will find a way to keep one of their stars. They won't be as good in the coming years, but the fall may not be as hard as people think. Positions that they are set at; Catcher, SS, 2nd base, LF, RF, DH, at least 3 SP's back (maybe 4 depending on Kennedy), plenty of Bullpen arms back. Now we should have plenty of guys that should be ready to go next season (Dozier, Cuthbert, Mondesi in infield spots, Starling or Dewees in the OF). If those guys can play, then you are good for a few more years and need more supplemental pieces. If they are bad, then you get the high picks you want to rebuild the farm and be good in 2022. The next core right now is probably in the low minor leagues with C Chase Vallot in High A, OF Khalil Lee in Low A ball, 1B Nick Pratto in Rookie ball (just drafted in 2017), so I wouldn't be surprised to see the Royals draft a 3B or SP next year to be part of that. Just have to see what management does and whether that changes in the coming years.
- bigryan2222
- 07-26-2017, 11:17 PM
The following reasons are why it would be dumb to sell for the Royals right now.
1.) They are barely out of 1st place (should be end of discussion but people are stupid)
2.) They have good players to sell, but none of them will bring much since they will be free agents. Anyone thinking they will get something impressive for a rental this year has not watched the markets recently. Borderline top 100 prospects are the best they will get.
3.) They will get picks for each of the players who turn down a qualifying offer. It will be either a 1st or 2nd round pick depending on how big a contract get signed by the leaving player.
4.) The Royals are not a team that can eat bad years with the price they paid this year. One year out of the playoffs proved the Royals will have to cut salary. Giving up this season and missing the playoffs after they go most of the season with an elevated payroll is terrible for the pocketbook.
5.) This season is clearly the last season to win for a while. The Royals sucked a long time when they had high draft picks. They know this is the last season of a special run. The fans deserve seeing this group out since there is little chance they can afford to keep many next season.
1.) They are barely out of 1st place (should be end of discussion but people are stupid)
2.) They have good players to sell, but none of them will bring much since they will be free agents. Anyone thinking they will get something impressive for a rental this year has not watched the markets recently. Borderline top 100 prospects are the best they will get.
3.) They will get picks for each of the players who turn down a qualifying offer. It will be either a 1st or 2nd round pick depending on how big a contract get signed by the leaving player.
4.) The Royals are not a team that can eat bad years with the price they paid this year. One year out of the playoffs proved the Royals will have to cut salary. Giving up this season and missing the playoffs after they go most of the season with an elevated payroll is terrible for the pocketbook.
5.) This season is clearly the last season to win for a while. The Royals sucked a long time when they had high draft picks. They know this is the last season of a special run. The fans deserve seeing this group out since there is little chance they can afford to keep many next season.
- BigDeal
- 07-26-2017, 11:47 PM
The Royals do their best maybe when no one expects them to.
They are looking at adding another SP maybe a bat
They are looking at adding another SP maybe a bat
- kehaar
- 07-27-2017, 03:24 PM
Exactly. Nothing they could have gotten by way of young talent would substantially change their future. Having enough money in the till to pay decent salaries is a key enabler, and that only comes with the playoffs.
The number of writers that were calling for a wholesale flip in June shocked me.
I grew up with the Royals being in the playoffs every year, and they were magic. Given the future uncertainty, and the core chemistry, how could one even contemplate giving up. Last week, I was reading through some old articles about how bad Hosmer sucked, and that they couldn't get anything for him in a trade, but they ought to trade him anyway. I shook my head.
What is the strategy that they ought to employ for the long term contracts. Has there been a single one that has turned out? Would it be possible to retain the core with short term, high value contracts that wouldn't bury the organization for years to come?
The number of writers that were calling for a wholesale flip in June shocked me.
I grew up with the Royals being in the playoffs every year, and they were magic. Given the future uncertainty, and the core chemistry, how could one even contemplate giving up. Last week, I was reading through some old articles about how bad Hosmer sucked, and that they couldn't get anything for him in a trade, but they ought to trade him anyway. I shook my head.
What is the strategy that they ought to employ for the long term contracts. Has there been a single one that has turned out? Would it be possible to retain the core with short term, high value contracts that wouldn't bury the organization for years to come?