Let's Put COVID-19 In Perspective

According to the CDC numbers that came out at noon today 5,443 Americans have died of COVID-19 since this thing started.

Do you realize on average 1,700 Americans die of heart disease EVERY DAY? 1,500ish die of cancer EVERY DAY! It doesn't make people exercise or eat right does it? It doesn't make people stop smoking, or didn't for years. Yet you expect people to respond to a disease that kills 1% of those infected? Most get mild symptoms unless old or infirm.

Pssht! Keep dreaming those big dreams, have a Big Mac and a Marlboro.

Just have a hot snatch lunch
I mean snack lunch

Just have a hot snatch lunch
I mean snack lunch

So the current best-case scenario is that between 100,000-240,000 people. In America will die as a result of Covid-19. Just doing some basic math with regard to the estimated mortality rate (1-3.5%) assumes that everyone will get it at some point. So the goal of social distancing is to ensure that we're not taxing out hospital systems to the point where providers have to decide who gets care and who doesn't because we don't have the facilities to care for everyone simultaneously. Yes a lot of people die from cancer and heart disease, but most don't die within two weeks of diagnosis and you're not guaranteed to have either and individuals hospitalized with both will be competing for hospital rooms with people with COVID-19, and some will die because of it.

I say that to say this...what a horribly selfish approach. The number of people you can and will infect is tremendous if you don't take this seriously. And you will be responsible for someone's death if you spread it so cavalierly.

So the current best-case scenario is that between 100,000-240,000 people. In America will die as a result of Covid-19. Just doing some basic math with regard to the estimated mortality rate (1-3.5%) assumes that everyone will get it at some point. So the goal of social distancing is to ensure that we're not taxing out hospital systems to the point where providers have to decide who gets care and who doesn't because we don't have the facilities to care for everyone simultaneously. Yes a lot of people die from cancer and heart disease, but most don't die within two weeks of diagnosis and you're not guaranteed to have either and individuals hospitalized with both will be competing for hospital rooms with people with COVID-19, and some will die because of it.

I say that to say this...what a horribly selfish approach. The number of people you can and will infect is tremendous if you don't take this seriously. And you will be responsible for someone's death if you spread it so cavalierly.

Included in those Heart Disease and Cancer stats are people in their 70s and 80s that had heart disease and cancer for many years. When they die the stat just gets attributed to Heart Disease or Cancer. Most of the 3000 per day don't just drop dead with no prior indications.

Well I haven't hobbied since the lockdown. I still have to work and interact with the public. I go to home improvement stores and grocery stores. I would think I have a better chance of catching it getting a gallon of milk. The thousands of people who have been in that store, pose a greater risk to me, than a provider. Unless she is seeing all the people, who also got a gallon of milk.

I am not sure why there are hot spots. California seems to be doing rather well. With a large population and large cities. I am sure the hobby didn't take a holiday there. Time will tell but unless you are hermetically sealed, you will cross paths with someone who might have it. Even with the best practices.

Well I haven't hobbied since the lockdown. I still have to work and interact with the public. I go to home improvement stores and grocery stores. I would think I have a better chance of catching it getting a gallon of milk. The thousands of people who have been in that store, pose a greater risk to me, than a provider. Unless she is seeing all the people, who also got a gallon of milk.

I am not sure why there are hot spots. California seems to be doing rather well. With a large population and large cities. I am sure the hobby didn't take a holiday there. Time will tell but unless you are hermetically sealed, you will cross paths with someone who might have it. Even with the best practices.

There are a lot of "people control" measures being put forward in the name of health that would be otherwise completely unacceptable. The entire landscape of society is being changed over night through social engineering. Lock people in their houses, make them afraid of one another, and keep them dependent on the government for their safety at the cost of their liberty.

It's also pretty interesting to me that here you have this mystery illness that comes out of nowhere, yet within a fairly short amount of time a cure is identified and rapidly advanced through drug trials. To me, it seems a little more than coincidental. Personally, I think it was a Chinese bioweapon that got loose somehow. The essential part of having bioweapon program is having the cure identified for yourself.

I say that to say this...what a horribly selfish approach. The number of people you can and will infect is tremendous if you don't take this seriously. And you will be responsible for someone's death if you spread it so cavalierly. Originally Posted by MonKD

Putting the current situation in perspective, and being skeptical about compliance is not the same thing as not being callous with others' lives. Implying that it is the same is an ad hominem red herring, a dick move.

Some are busy trying to engineer the risk, suffering and death out of human life. Well, the human condition is not setup that way. It doesn't work. Everyone is going to suffer. Everyone is going to die. In the 21st century some have become very remote from those facts much of the time. Perhaps it is not altogether a bad thing that we are reminded. This will be a gentle reminder compared to something like the Spanish Flu.

Also, risk mitigations have costs. How many have lost their livelihood and how many businesses will never re-open? Are we amplifying the harm by shutting down the economy or reducing it?

Agree with you 100 percent

So the current best-case scenario is that between 100,000-240,000 people. In America will die as a result of Covid-19. Just doing some basic math with regard to the estimated mortality rate (1-3.5%) assumes that everyone will get it at some point. So the goal of social distancing is to ensure that we're not taxing out hospital systems to the point where providers have to decide who gets care and who doesn't because we don't have the facilities to care for everyone simultaneously. Yes a lot of people die from cancer and heart disease, but most don't die within two weeks of diagnosis and you're not guaranteed to have either and individuals hospitalized with both will be competing for hospital rooms with people with COVID-19, and some will die because of it.

I say that to say this...what a horribly selfish approach. The number of people you can and will infect is tremendous if you don't take this seriously. And you will be responsible for someone's death if you spread it so cavalierly. Originally Posted by MonKD

If you like to be informed by data, these charts can help a lot:
https://informationisbeautiful.net/v...phic-datapack/

650 people in New York died in a 24 hour period, and that's with social distancing and stay at home orders in place. In your perspective, how many would people in New York would die at the peak if this were treated as nonchalantly as heart disease? 10,000?

There are a lot of "people control" measures being put forward in the name of health that would be otherwise completely unacceptable. The entire landscape of society is being changed over night through social engineering. Lock people in their houses, make them afraid of one another, and keep them dependent on the government for their safety at the cost of their liberty.

It's also pretty interesting to me that here you have this mystery illness that comes out of nowhere, yet within a fairly short amount of time a cure is identified and rapidly advanced through drug trials. To me, it seems a little more than coincidental. Personally, I think it was a Chinese bioweapon that got loose somehow. The essential part of having bioweapon program is having the cure identified for yourself. Originally Posted by Enchanterlingum

This is a galactically stupid take on current events.

650 people in New York died in a 24 hour period, and that's with social distancing and stay at home orders in place. In your perspective, how many would people in New York would die at the peak if this were treated as nonchalantly as heart disease? 10,000? Originally Posted by Chalkster

That's kind of hard to say because the effectiveness of social distancing will vary based upon how dense the population is. In rural MO, social distancing will be a lot more effective since the population density is so much lower than in NYC. Social distancing in NYC still doesn't keep everyone inside. They still have to go out for all sorts of reasons, thus continuing to spread the virus. While it helps to some extent, it's just conjecture to guess how many would die otherwise.