professor who makes prediction says biden will win

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...forecasts-that

Professor with history of correctly predicting elections forecasts that Biden will defeat Trump

By Marina Pitofsky - 08/05/20 05:18 PM EDT

American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has a record of accurately predicting presidential races, said he expects former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, to defeat President Trump in November.

Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who predicted the Trump's election in 2016. Over decades of observing presidential politics, he has developed a system of 13 “key factors” to help determine whether the party in the White House will maintain its hold. The factors range from whether the party has an incumbent president running to short- and long-term economic conditions.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” the professor said in a video op-ed published by The New York Times on Wednesday.

Lichtman claims to have accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984, though he predicted that former Vice President Al Gore would win the election in 2000. Although Gore won the popular vote, former President George W. Bush won the electoral college.

According to Lichtman’s system, seven factors favor the former vice president, including Democrats making gains in the 2018 midterm elections, short- and long-term economic hits amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and “social unrest” sparked by the police killing of George Floyd earlier this year.

Lichtman also cited “scandal” for the White House, including Trump’s impeachment earlier this year, and the president not having any major foreign or military successes. He also claimed that Trump is not a “charismatic” candidate for large swaths of the country.

The factors that favor the president include there being "no primary contest for the White House party," Trump being the incumbent and there being no significant third-party challenger. Lichtman also cited major policy changes such as Trump’s 2017 tax cut, the White House having no major foreign or military failures, and Biden not being "inspirational or charismatic."

However, Lichtman admitted that “there are forces at play outside the keys,” citing potential voter suppression efforts, possible meddling from Russia in the 2020 election and more.

“It’s up to you, the voter, to decide the future of our democracy,” he said.

This professor is hardly a genius for his prediction. Biden will win. There are way too many Americans who are sick of Trump's stupidity and ineptitude and they would probably vote for Biden's housekeeper rather than Trump. Dude is about to be history and good riddance.

This professor is not a genius for his prediction. Biden will win. There are way too many Americans who are sick of Trump's stupidity and ineptitude and they would probably vote for Biden's dog rather than Trump. Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

you'll vote for Trump. why? most people vote with their wallets .. what does your fat 6 figure wallet tell you to do? the same as my fat 6 figure wallet. for the guy who won't impose a 70% tax bracket on you to pay for his laundry list of socialist shit being shoved up his senile ass.


right???

I won't lie, TWK. I'm always a Republican on 4/15; or this year 7/15. I do like keeping my money.

If Biden hires an extreme liberal nut job as VP and I'm fucked with taxes, he's not getting my vote. You're correct. My wallet always comes first.

I won't lie, TWK. I'm always a Republican on 4/15; or this year 7/15. I do like keeping my money.

If Biden hires a nut job as a VP and I'm fucked with taxes, he's not getting my vote. Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

me neither. of course that's a given with Biden getting his ass fucked by Bernie. now if it was AOC .. that might be kinky ..

besides .. Biden isn't flipping Texas and his advisors know it


Another poll has Biden over Trump in Texas, but a Biden adviser reportedly doesn’t think Texas can turn blue

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-poli...can-turn-blue/


“Texas is 22 [expletive] media markets,” the adviser told the WashingtonPost. “That is never going to happen. It’s just not going to happen. Everyone knows that. I don’t know why people are still even talking about it.”


A Morning Consult poll released Tuesday said Biden has a two-point advantage over Trump in Texas. Earlier that morning, a Washington Post report quoted an anonymous Biden adviser who doubted whether Texas will elect a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since Jimmy Carter in 1976.


we Texans learn from our mistakes ....



BAHHAAAAAA

Lichtman has a good track record but not perfect.

Here is a correlation that has been 100% accurate.

Presidential approval ratings started in the early 1950s. Since then a POTUS seeking reelection with a positive approval rating has won every time. A POTUS seeking reelection with a negative approval rating has lost every time.

Trump's approval rating according to 538 is -13.3%.

Trump's approval rating according to RCP is -11.8%.

me neither. of course that's a given with Biden getting his ass fucked by Bernie. now if it was AOC .. that might be kinky ..

besides .. Biden isn't flipping Texas and his advisors know it


Another poll has Biden over Trump in Texas, but a Biden adviser reportedly doesn’t think Texas can turn blue

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-poli...can-turn-blue/


“Texas is 22 [expletive] media markets,” the adviser told the WashingtonPost. “That is never going to happen. It’s just not going to happen. Everyone knows that. I don’t know why people are still even talking about it.”

[/I][/B]


we Texans learn from our mistakes ....

BAHHAAAAAA Originally Posted by The_Waco_Kid

My prediction many months ago, prior to the coronavirus and the BLM protests, was that Trump would win Texas but by much less than the 9% margin he won it by in 2016. Most likely by less than 5%.

There have been about 17 polls run in Texas this year. Trump has led in 12 of them, Biden in 4, with 1 tie. Trump led one poll by 6% and Biden led one poll by 5%. Most were within the margin of error.

I stand by my prediction.

This professor is hardly a genius for his prediction. Biden will win. There are way too many Americans who are sick of Trump's stupidity and ineptitude and they would probably vote for Biden's housekeeper rather than Trump. Dude is about to be history and good riddance. Originally Posted by Lucas McCain

Nothing will improve with Biden. He's an even bigger puppet than Trump. Whatever it is you hate about Trump you'll get ten fold with Biden.