Yelen: Inflation, We got it wrong"

Pardon me, but she gets a huge amount of money to Get It Right!

Being that wrong on something this important for this long is not competence.

... Her knowledge of the economy could surely fit into a thimble.
And still have room for her thumb. ...

### Salty

Jay Powell got it wrong. His failure to understand hurts us much more than Yellen's.

Not to worry.. Yellen says that a recession is unlikely so... what could possibly go wrong?

Not to worry.. Yellen says that a recession is unlikely so... what could possibly go wrong? Originally Posted by texassapper

It's not likely in 2023. We will be past the recession we are currently in, by that time.

So what is in the works to change the dismal direction the country is headed in??? Oil prices see no signs of letting up and that drives the spiraling inflation...another uneducated guesses of yours...will you ever stop your leftwing ass kissing??

So what is in the works to change the dismal direction the country is headed in??? Oil prices see no signs of letting up and that drives the spiraling inflation...another uneducated guesses of yours...will you ever stop your leftwing ass kissing?? Originally Posted by bb1961

The beatings will continue until moral improves and if the numbers do not look good, change the way they are calculated. Real inflation is closer to 18% and quite frankly as high as 26%, depending on what you actually count - otherwise known as the Okey-Doke shuffle. Toss in some word-salad games, i.e. blatant lies, and Viola! Poof! No inflation, nothing to see here. Move along kiddies.

Good article about this very scheme today:
Washington Developed A System To Lie To You About Inflation, The Real Inflation Rate Is Much, Much Higher

The beatings will continue until moral improves and if the numbers do not look good, change the way they are calculated. Real inflation is closer to 18% and quite frankly as high as 26%, depending on what you actually count - otherwise known as the Okey-Doke shuffle. Toss in some word-salad games, i.e. blatant lies, and Viola! Poof! No inflation, nothing to see here. Move along kiddies.

Good article about this very scheme today:
Washington Developed A System To Lie To You About Inflation, The Real Inflation Rate Is Much, Much Higher Originally Posted by Why_Yes_I_Do

"COVID is the number one cause of inflation"

Yellen is:

• scapegoat
• sacrificial lamb
• patsy
• trial balloon
• the walk of shame

Pick any/all that apply

Yellen has only been a professor and Fed Reserve employee
Powell was a Lawyer working Mergers then got a job at US Treasury.

My point being, neither worked Commodities Markets, nor Futures, and are academics, not real world economists.

When a low raking but rising star at CBOT started forecasting serious inflation issues in metals prices almost a couple years ago, what part of "of course this will end up in consumer finished goods" was missed by these so called super professionals. This increase is actually in the Producer Price increase indexes and can be seen starting late summer 2020.

And now they've screwed up the reality of energy costs that is occurring due to Government issued decisions.

Sad that these folks kiss the political status instead of actually doing their actual jobs.
Clearly this is the new definition of Zombie-ism being a contagious disease.

She's wrong. We are going to have a recession. Larry Summers just confirmed it on "State of the Union with Jake Tapper." Biden can't walk and chew gum at the same time so - we're doomed.

Sadly this has been in the cards for a while, and she's certainly partly responsible, but not the only one. Both democrats and republicans, for decades now, have acted like there is no tomorrow. Or, as I like to say, they spend money like a drunken sailor in a foreign port.

They got away with it thanks to globalization and the fact we import so much crap. That all ended when those idiots shut down the economy and we could no longer export our dollars. More dollars in the economy chasing fewer goods, and you get this. Good job!

Sadly I don't see any republican who understands the problem and will surround himself/herself with good people who are for sound money. Trump certainly wasn't that guy. If you thought he was, you should haver seen the game was up the moment he surrounded himself with neocons.

Sadly this has been in the cards for a while, and she's certainly partly responsible, but not the only one. Both democrats and republicans, for decades now, have acted like there is no tomorrow. Or, as I like to say, they spend money like a drunken sailor in a foreign port.

They got away with it thanks to globalization and the fact we import so much crap. That all ended when those idiots shut down the economy and we could no longer export our dollars. More dollars in the economy chasing fewer goods, and you get this. Good job!

Sadly I don't see any republican who understands the problem and will surround himself/herself with good people who are for sound money. Trump certainly wasn't that guy. If you thought he was, you should haver seen the game was up the moment he surrounded himself with neocons. Originally Posted by sailorman1980

You should thank the Republican governors that kept their economies open. States like Nevada, New York, and California etc fucked us all.

.

And now they've screwed up the reality of energy costs that is occurring due to Government issued decisions.

. Originally Posted by Unique_Carpenter

Yea the Saudi's government decision to not increase production after flooding the market back in 2020 and driving our energy sector damn near out of business!

I do remember our commodity price discussion a couple of year ago...like lumber, oil will take a while to find equilibrium...imho.

I happen to agree with this take...

https://fortune.com/2022/06/06/morga...aradigm-shift/

now, but some people are still winning. Are you one of them?
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Markets should brace for ‘fire’ and ‘ice’: Morgan Stanley executive warns of a recession and even bigger ‘paradigm shift’
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TRISTAN BOVE
June 6, 2022 12:58 PM CDT

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The economy is likely to blow hot and cold for the immediate future, Morgan Stanley’s copresident says, as the economy swings between fears of inflation and fears of contraction.


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Last week, Ted Pick, head of institutional securities at investment bank Morgan Stanley, joined bankers and investors from Jamie Dimon to Carl Icahn in warning that chances of a recession are steadily rising, marked by periods of a hot and cold economy.

“There is a fire narrative, and that fire narrative is inflation. And then there is a bit of an ice narrative, that recession talk, hard landing or soft landing,” he said. “We'll have these periods where it feels awfully fiery, and other periods where it feels icy, and clients need to navigate around that.”

There is still a decent chance the U.S. will enter a recession, but we likely will not know for sure until next fall, Pick said.


He forecasts an economic downturn and slowdown in banking business if “inflation and inflationary expectations are cementing” by next fall, as this would force the Fed to tighten monetary policy and raise interest rates even higher.

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But even if a recession does hit, it will not necessarily entail an economic collapse akin to what happened in 2008. And Pick says that the U.S. is on the precipice of an entirely different business cycle which will be a departure from the loose monetary policy of the last 15 years.

Paradigm shift
A momentous upheaval to the economy may have been inevitable after a record bull market run marked by a prolonged period of low borrowing rates, according to Pick.

The pandemic briefly interrupted this run in 2020, but the economy bounced back quickly last year, with massive rebounds from all three major stock indices and a record volume of mergers and acquisitions.

But after a new war in Ukraine, high inflation, and higher interest rates, a new economic norm is emerging, according to Pick.


“It’s an extraordinary moment,” he said. “It signals a paradigm shift: the end of 15 years of financial repression and the next era to come.”

This new economic era could be an entirely new business cycle, one Pick says might be defined by higher borrowing rates than consumers have grown accustomed to over the past decade and a half.

Financial repression—which Pick spoke of several times during his speech—refers to a monetary strategy of redirecting company profits from the private sector to pay off government debts. According to Pick, it often leads to lower interest rates for a prolonged period of time and reduced savings in the private sector, and the policy has been employed by the U.S. several times in moments of high public debt.

The shift away from an age of “financial repression” won’t happen overnight, he says.

“We’ll be having this conversation for the next 12, 18, 24 months,” Pick said, but assured that a change is coming, and a new business cycle with different rules is set to emerge in the old one’s wake.