Thoughts on this video

I’m highly degree’d but admittedly with a technology focus. Minimal competence in microbiology, immunology, or general medicine with the depth of those trained in the field. So medical is not my wheelhouse.

That said, I have been looking at the pieces of this COVID puzzle and trying to assimilate to understand with depth. Intentionally refraining from MSM influence.

https://youtu.be/wyjtDH__Px4

Now, I’ve seen how polarized people are on this. It’s like politics. People believe what they’ve chosen to believe based on the influencers in their lives that they deem of value. So I’m not trying to change any minds here just gather thoughts/perspectives from a different focus group.

KCGator

I think I wouldn't want him as my Doctor.

What little detail he provides on "extrapolated data" is based on completely incorrect assumptions. I'd be interested in seeing if he plans to publish his findings and methodology anywhere. In the meantime Brandolini's law is very much in effect.

Like a lot of smart people he explains an elementary concept with an elaborate vocabulary. I learned what he said in the fir minute or so in junior high.

What he failed to explain is how the immune system is overwhelmed by microbes.

My conclusion is we should all NOT protect ourselves so as to contribute to the evolution of the human immune system. I’d rather not, I’ll wear my mask when I’m in an enclosed area, WalMart, HyVee, Laundromat, etc.

Dumars...interesting response. Thank you. Speaking of masks, with the airborne droplet being 4 microns in size, 99.9% of the “masks” folks are wearing doesn’t deter entry or exit.

I was thinking about this as I went to the grocery store. I was questioning exposure. We touch everything there. The workers are exposed all shift. Basically every one of us has traversed a grocery store multiple times during this incident. Why aren’t stores the ‘hotbed’ for infection? Specifically from the airborne variant.

It was something I was also pondering while I was reading an article saying strokes and clots have increased due to what this virus does to the body.

This will be interesting to watch how it plays out. Some pieces to the puzzle fit while others don’t seem to be applicable. But like I stated, I’ve got no depth of knowledge medically. Just trying to technically assimilate.

KCGator

Don’t know where you get your info but the simple fact is anything will provide some degree of protection, whether single ply toilet paper or N95 mask. N95 filters to .3 microns, COVID-19 is smaller!!! N95 masks are 95% effective. The ONLY 100% effective way is a self contained apparatus, think scuba diving and fire fighters.

Your aparant notion that anything less than 100% effective is not effective at all is preposterous!

Dumars...interesting response. Thank you. Speaking of masks, with the airborne droplet being 4 microns in size, 99.9% of the “masks” folks are wearing doesn’t deter entry or exit.

I was thinking about this as I went to the grocery store. I was questioning exposure. We touch everything there. The workers are exposed all shift. Basically every one of us has traversed a grocery store multiple times during this incident. Why aren’t stores the ‘hotbed’ for infection? Specifically from the airborne variant.

It was something I was also pondering while I was reading an article saying strokes and clots have increased due to what this virus does to the body.

This will be interesting to watch how it plays out. Some pieces to the puzzle fit while others don’t seem to be applicable. But like I stated, I’ve got no depth of knowledge medically. Just trying to technically assimilate.

KCGator Originally Posted by KCGator

I understood what he was saying. It is common sense. My old doctor 35 yrs ago would only prescribe anti-biotics, after he took a culture. He would use the the right anti-biotic. He intended to kill what was ailing his patients. Others would just give out prescriptions to get their patients off their backs when they called in. Now we have super bugs that are resistant to all but one anti-biotic. You have to be able to fight off a lot with your body. In nature, the strong survive.

Most of the Covid deaths have been confirmed. The rest are assumed to be Covid. The majority of the confirmed had one foot in the grave already. Pre-existing conditions. Modern medicine delays death, it doesn't cheat death. Watch the series "Dead Like Me". When your name is on the post it, it is your time. Our best & brightest guessed. They used computer models that guessed. They overshoot the target and hit the economy. Now we have a lower death rate from Covid but more stress, depression, alcoholism, etc. All which take a toll on the body. Some of them will die too.

I’m highly degree’d but admittedly with a technology focus. Minimal competence in microbiology, immunology, or general medicine with the depth of those trained in the field. So medical is not my wheelhouse.

That said, I have been looking at the pieces of this COVID puzzle and trying to assimilate to understand with depth. Intentionally refraining from MSM influence.

https://youtu.be/wyjtDH__Px4

Now, I’ve seen how polarized people are on this. It’s like politics. People believe what they’ve chosen to believe based on the influencers in their lives that they deem of value. So I’m not trying to change any minds here just gather thoughts/perspectives from a different focus group.

KCGator Originally Posted by KCGator

The doctor was correct when he was talking about microbiology, immunology, or general medicine.

The doctor is wrong when he talked about models: that is out of his field and he just doesn't understand what models are. That is obvious when he made the statement:
about how the models "predicted hundreds of thousands of death, which was inaccurate."

A lot of people who want to get attention for their own ego get on the news and make comment about what has not happened. They are idiots when it comes to statistical models: they should STFU.

Let me try to explain: models are not predictive in anyway shape or form. The correct word is "projected" based upon current conditions. The projected number of dead was over one million people. Oh, you don't want that many people to die, change the current conditions. Got it?

Statistics is my field, I know it well. I may have started out in the areas of microbiology, immunology, pharmacy and chemistry: Viet Nam changed that. But I got the GI bill and did Graduate level statistics before going into other work. Statistics is not about describing what is: it is about how we can change what will be. It is about changing what we are doing to get a different result. Models are meant to bring about changes for different results.

Remember the normal deviation curve and the sigma? Total beginning stuff for most people that does not apply to what has happened with this virus.

The intent of models and statistical projections are to change the future outcome of events: We do not accept the standard deviation curve, we want to change it

One project I worked on was the intentional skewing of the standard deviation:
We are filling a package with one pound of goods,
anything more than 1 pound is giving stuff away for free and we are loosing money,
anything less than one pound is cheating the buyer, and is not allowed, not even on a single package - no ever.
The goods sold have moisture, moisture is lost over time. How much is lost over time?
What is the maximum time it takes (shelf life) to sell the last 1 pound package.
The last package sold must be more than or equal 1 pound.
There are 454 grams per pound, how many grams per package can we reduce.
We have 15 packaging plants, each packaging 300,000 pound per day 260 days/year.
If we change what we are doing, how much money can we save?

You don't like where this road trip is taking you, take a right turn at the next corner and drive somewhere else. Some really smart people don't understand this, so don't feel alone.

We had a model that projected over 1 million Americans would die from this thing: so far we have about 63,000 people who have died. That is a good thing! What? read the beginning sentence in this paragraph again! Out leaders changed what was projected to happen into a much less severe result. Be happy about that.

The models only project: President Trump listened to the experts about what the statistical models really meant, and he changed the conditions the models used to show what could (not would) happen.

President Trump can be (and at times he is) rude and crude, but he knows how to organize business. You don't do it alone, you organize teams to get the job done and take there advice. It is not one person, it is the team organization that gets things done. He did it, and to his credit, he has given the credit to others. To step away from then lime light is something that a the policitcal hacks would just not do.

Now then: back to a statistical example we studied in graduate school.
One of the major battles in the Pacific in WWII was fought solely by statistics.

• The first question was: where is the Japanese Navy right now, and where will they be in the near future.
• The second question was: what methods do we use to locate the Japanese Navy. The answer - all the spotter planes we have available.
• The third question was: How do we deploy the spotter planes to find them, what is the direction of travel and return and what is the grid pattern we will use and why? Keep in mind that this is a moving target: what direction would the Japanese Navy be moving and why?
• The Fourth Question was how do we move our ships to keep from being found while our spotter plains are attempting to find the Japanese Navy? Yet, at the same time allowing the returning spotter plains to find us on their return flight?
• All of the above must be carried out in radio silence.

Ain't worried, done took my Lysol. I'll be fine!

JRLawrence ! I won't quote you, but what you have said is IMHO one of the most Intelligent statements I've read here.

Statistics always reflect the view and attitude of the person who compiles them.

Lets just face it we were suckered on the numbers. I believe intentionally. IMHO

So was Trump

MK, do your research the doctor is 100% correct, Sweden is the example and the rest of the world knows it.

Given a little time anyone can take a set of numbers and build a strong and compelling argument both pro and con.
Numbers are a snapshot of what has happened at a specific point in time.
How you present them(frame them in political speak) determines the for/against stand.

Old adage liars figure and figures lie.

The good doc needs to take a class in statistics!! His last statement is a JOKE!! Finland and Norway are way better off then Sweden. Check the numbers! https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Problem is trump is playing with mostly 3rd string players on his team. No one with any future aspirations in politics is going near that train wreck.

Then again if you Hate Trump the Facts don't matter.

Trump has flipped so many times, it makes me dizzy!!!