Dow Jones on November 3, 2020
27,480.03
Dow on January 20, 2021
31,179
The stock market believes in the new president. Up almost 4,000 since he was elected. On day one he has hit a record for the Dow. More records to come.
Biden
MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN
Originally Posted by 1blackman1
Au contraire. On November 3, the market was expecting a Biden victory and control of the Senate to pass to the Democrats. The election results were already mostly priced in.
Most of the move you cite occurred between November 3 and November 16. The biggest reason was the vaccines. Pfizer announced its vaccine was 90% effective on November 9. Good news from Moderna and Astra Zeneca came after that.
Also, by November 15, Senate sentiment had changed. People believed Republicans and McConnell would retain control. Take a look at the 90 day chart here, from Predictit.org, which shows the probability punters were giving to a Perdue win:
https://www.predictit.org/markets/de...ion-in-Georgia
I could make a case that President Trump's Operation Warp Speed and support to Pfizer caused the jump, not a Biden victory. I'd be somewhat disingenuous though. Expectations for a stimulus, interest rates, future deficits, and irrational exuberance in SPAC's and tech stocks also played a role. Politics play a role in some of that, but trying to explain stock market performance based on who's president is a little like trying to explain stock market performance based on whether an AFC or NFC team won the Super Bowl.