Far-Reaching Minnesota Fraud Scandal Is an Opportunity to Re-Imagine the Out-of-Control Welfare State

Can Republicans do it? The early signs are not promising. But it badly, badly needs to happen.

Kim Strassel explains the fundamental issue, i.e the big picture, in straightforward terms.


The Lesson of Minnesota’s Fraud

Republicans have an opportunity to run against an out-of-control welfare state.

By Kimberley A. Strassel
Dec. 4, 2025 5:26 pm ET


Republicans in recent years were handed the gift of California, that collapsing paragon of climate virtue, an excellent argument for the GOP’s own, better energy agenda. Their Christmas present this year is Minnesota - if the party has the wits to seize on the moral of that state’s epic fraud story: America’s welfare system is irredeemably broken.

The Minnesota story - in which Somali fraudsters bilked taxpayers out of more than $1 billion—has many ugly story lines to choose from. It’s a parable of failed assimilation and the need for policies that heat the melting pot. It’s another warning of identity politics, of fraudsters using “minority-owned” status to cash in and crying “racism” to evade scrutiny. It’s a scandal of politicians who looked the other way, more eager to win votes than to enforce the law.

President Trump has for his part sought to co-opt the story for his own priority: immigration. He’s raged about ungrateful Somali immigrants, paused immigration applications from 19 countries, and ramped up immigration enforcement operations in the Minneapolis area. This might excite the base, but it’s diverting attention from a far better policy opportunity.

Because at root, this is a story of broken welfare. Of a federal government that shovels more than $1 trillion annually into more than 80 major “antipoverty” programs (and countless minor ones) - a system too complex to ensure even basic integrity. And of a state that preened as a model of social welfare, its own lavish benefits drawing many immigrants, and invited a plundering.

The U.S. welfare debate has long centered on the failed outcomes of overly generous government programs. The long-term dependency and loss of dignity. The discouragement of work. The damage to family structure. We’ve had many rounds of this discussion: from fallout over the New Deal and Great Society to “welfare queens” in the 1990s. Today’s vast outlays and falling labor-force participation rates are proof that the failure is becoming deeper. According to the Center for Immigration Studies, the share of U.S.-born working-age men not in the labor force was about 11% in 1960. It is now 22%.

But Minnesota raises to alarm level a separate need for reset: The system itself - the government machine - is broken. Its heaving, duplicative federal-state programs, awash in forms and bureaucracies and ancient mainframes, has already suffered Soviet-style collapse. The system serves more as a cash machine for criminals than a safety net for the needy.

How do you separate the wheat from the slime amid millions of overlapping, self-attested (yes, we still work on the honor system) applications for SNAP, WIC, unemployment insurance, EITC, LIHEAP, CHIP, TANF, Medicaid, Head Start, Pell grants, public housing, rental assistance, legal services, adoption subsidies and adult education—overlaid with hundreds of state-level counterparts? You don’t, you write checks. And the crooks now know it. As Joe Thompson, lead prosecutor in the big Minnesota cases, said: “This isn’t just a few criminals exploiting the system, this is a system that’s been begging to be exploited.”

We’d already been told this. Even the government auditors—numb to fraud - were bug-eyed at the scams that sucked through Joe Biden’s (your) Covid dollars. Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency told us again of babies cadging small-business loans and long-dead citizens collecting Social Security. Minnesota is the new outrage, useful both for the extravagant outrage of the theft (Somalis siphoning taxpayer dollars for luxury cars and homes) and because it’s Minnesota. Democrats long pitched the state as a model of successful, generous Swedish-style social welfare, financed by high taxes - much as California pitched itself as the future of green energy. How’s that going?

This is a moment. Republicans might be shouting from the rooftops that Minnesota proves how right they were to have included in their tax-reform bill a slate of antifraud reforms to Medicaid and food stamps. But they might also seize on this scandal to take the fraud argument much further. To explain that this is no longer a situation that can be corrected with more due diligence. It is the size and scope of the morass that is enabling fraud.

The argument: We need to move many people off government dependency not just for moral and societal reasons, but because government has an obligation - to taxpayers and to the truly needy - to right-size and return to a system that can function. One that is lean, efficient and able to focus its dollars on the actual mission: temporary assistance. In a perfect world, we’d tear down the maze we’ve added to for a century and replace it with a central clearinghouse for short-term government support, able to interact efficiently with states.

Why not reimagine government? All around us is evidence the current structure is failing, and past the date of fixing. Americans know it, and will reward a party that admits it and offers a reset.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-less...fraud-3e66f5f0

No, they can't do it, LL. Reason why is that neither side will try.

It certainly has to be done.

However, the op-ed, well-written as it is, is a dogwhistle which I believe is being blown by this WSJ op-ed writer at a mysteriously convenient time as the GOP struggles for a way to neutralize the affordability issue ahead of the 2026 primaries.

I do not support fraud. I want it stopped. So let's stop it.

Meanwhile, MAGA needs something to distract the faithful from what's really going on.

Not trying to be cynical, but you know...

No, they can't do it, LL. Reason why is that neither side will try.

It certainly has to be done.

However, the op-ed, well-written as it is, is a dogwhistle which I believe is being blown by this WSJ op-ed writer at a mysteriously convenient time as the GOP struggles for a way to neutralize the affordability issue ahead of the 2026 primaries.

I do not support fraud. I want it stopped. So let's stop it... Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Good to hear you say this. It didn't come through in your posts on this topic in the other thread.

Nobody is blowing a "dogwhistle". EVERYONE should be against fraud and want to see it eliminated, especially when it occurs on such an unprecedented scale. Both issues - welfare fraud and affordability - should be salient ones in 2026.

Fraud - as a general class of crime, or person in some cases - is something we all should stand against and I think we all are in agreement.

I disagree on the dogwhistle part.

"Welfare state" fraud basically turns into a bumper sticker and another call for division and all the horrible shit that comes with it.

The finger pointing, branding, owning and other manual activities that needs to happen prior to 2026 primaries has less to do with erasing fraud than focus grouping bumper stickers. If this one doesn't play, the bullshit machine will have to pivot to a new crisis to rally the faithful against the horrible opposition. Or even create one.

This is on WSJ in my opinion. They should be sued for $5 billion dollars. Were the shoe on the other ankle ...

We are blessed with yet another WSJ opinion piece. At least the OP is reading them. Maybe one or two or who stumble on this thread and think that they are at all objective...

And like MAGA is capable of rising to the occasion...."reimagining" anything other than partisan hatred and vindictive politics. Because they DID have an opportunity. And have already let Trump squander it with his vitriol and weaponization.

(I heard....somewhere....that if ya round it off...that 0.0 percent of WSJ subscribers approve!)

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I am not clear on this . . . .

Is it the consensus from the liberal posters in this thread that there actually is fraud in Minnesota serious enough to be vigorously investigated and prosecuted, but not the way the Republican administration is pursuing it?

Another question: What opinion should the WSJ have expressed other than what they published? What would have been acceptable or supported? I would be interested to see a sort of paraphrased correction of the WWJ piece from someone here.

You are not clear on a lot of things.

Obviously.

Most everybody opposes fraud.

Most everybody opposes fascism.

Where are you on that venn diagram?

I am not clear on this . . . .

Is it the consensus from the liberal posters in this thread that there actually is fraud in Minnesota serious enough to be vigorously investigated and prosecuted, but not the way the Republican administration is pursuing it?

Another question: What opinion should the WSJ have expressed other than what they published? What would have been acceptable or supported? I would be interested to see a sort of paraphrased correction of the WWJ piece from someone here. Originally Posted by ICU 812

Just my opinion...not necessarily a consensus.
Fraud should be vigorously investigated and prosecuted...not only in Minnesota but equally in California, Florida and Texas...all 'top ranked' states for fraud against the US government.

Perhaps this is an opportunity to address the 'welfare state'.

Mark Cuban has some valid points...

"The best way to reduce the cost of Medicaid is to name and shame big employers that pay their full time employees so little, they qualify for Medicaid,"

"When a large employer pays so little that their full-time employees qualify for Medicaid, or any public assistance, we the taxpayers are effectively subsidizing that big company. That's wrong,"

Just my opinion...not necessarily a consensus.

Fraud should be vigorously investigated and prosecuted...not only in Minnesota but equally in California, Florida and Texas...all 'top ranked' states for fraud against the US government. Originally Posted by RX792P

Is there a study or a link that measures and ranks all 50 states for fraud, and identifies which federal programs are being defrauded by how much?

Back in 2024, the GAO published a study estimating the federal government loses between $233 billion and $521 billion annually due to fraud. If you have anything that is more detailed and up-to-date, please share the link.

Is there a study or a link that measures and ranks all 50 states for fraud, and identifies which federal programs are being defrauded by how much?

Back in 2024, the GAO published a study estimating the federal government loses between $233 billion and $521 billion annually due to fraud. If you have anything that is more detailed and up-to-date, please share the link. Originally Posted by lustylad

Here's some reading for you
https://www.naag.org/wp-content/uplo...stics-2023.pdf

Seems the HHS OIG website is 'not available' right now...


AI stuff (take with whatever grain of salt)
States with the highest volume of Medicaid fraud vary depending on the metric used (e.g., dollars recovered versus number of convictions or investigations). Based on recent data from 2022 and 2024, the top states for dollar value recovered and prosecutions include Texas, California, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
Top States by Dollars Recovered (2022)
According to a 2023 report from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG), the following states recovered the highest amounts through civil and criminal judgments in 2022:
Texas: $219.9 million
California: $108.5 million
Florida: $88.3 million
Louisiana: $86.4 million
Massachusetts: $71.3 million
New York: $58 million
Top States by Prosecutions and Convictions (FY 2024)
Pennsylvania's Medicaid Fraud Control Section was ranked number one in the nation for the number of fraud charges filed against individuals in the 2024 fiscal year, and third overall for convictions secured.

Just spitballing here, but is it possible the intense focus on Minnesota’s transgressions have to do with the fact that Trump wants to crush every one who’s ever stood against him?

Like the man who ran against him.

Or the Muslims the state elected to Congress? We know how he feels about Muslims.

Or the Somali immigrants who were “allowed” to live in this country? We know how he feels about brown people.

When you look at the figures presented by RX, it sure seems like Trump ought to be invading Texas, California or Florida instead of Minnesota, doesn’t it? More Muslims and brown people and fraud.

He is your retribution, remember?

Speaking of "Opportunity to Re-Imagine the Out-of-Control Welfare State"
Maybe not what the original poster imagined, but quite relevant.

Mark Cuban brings up some very good points about 'welfare state' and who's subsidizing who...

"When a large employer pays so little that their full-time employees qualify for Medicaid, or any public assistance, we the taxpayers are effectively subsidizing that big company. That's wrong,"

The best way to reduce the cost of Medicaid is to name and shame big employers that pay their full time employees so little, they qualify for Medicaid,"

When critics tried to label his view political...

"When did you stop understanding how capitalism and free markets work? I didn't mention a word about policy change. If I knew which companies are costing taxpayers money, so they can make more money, I would stop doing business with them. That's capitalism."

Though I grant in these modern times, Cuban's view of 'capitalism' may not coincide with that of some corporations.

Related
Cuban's Cost Plus Drugs has done more to reduce medication prices than TrumpRX can ever hope to do (since TrumpRX doesn't even sell medications)

Cuban's ideas are certainly not new. But they are certainly worth repeating regularly. People have been critical of "subsidizing" businesses like Walmart and McDonald's in this fashion for a long time.

Then again....everyone LOVES them cheap burgers and Walmart goods...

We are all part of the problem.

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Based on recent data from 2022 and 2024, the top states for dollar value recovered and prosecutions include...

Pennsylvania's Medicaid Fraud Control Section was ranked number one in the nation for the number of fraud charges filed against individuals in the 2024 fiscal year, and third overall for convictions secured. Originally Posted by RX792P

Thanks, but I think we need a better methodology. So much fraud goes undetected & unreported. I suspect a state like Florida is more aggressive in prosecuting it than California. Therefore the numbers cited by your AI friend (investigations, prosecutions, dollars recovered etc.) are a better gauge of each state's anti-fraud prosecutorial zeal than an accurate measure of the actual fraud taking place... but I still appreciate the fact that Pennsylvania ranks so high!