Kentucky Derby!!!

Just over a week away from the Kentucky Derby. Any horse race fans who would like to pick this year winner for the KD and maybe the next Triple Crown!!

saw where they're extending coverage begining Wed prior to the Sat race .. maybe a pick after I see who can wear roses and who wil be Alpo .

After the post draw and a few more workouts... I will have my picks by Saturday morning! Also, the weather will play a factor!

Ok... So far I got a list of 6 - 7 horses and I am yet to decide on a particular order/box/key:
- daddy nose best
- bodemeister
- alpha
- take charge indy
- gemologist
-dullahan
Also to take in consideration is the speed sprinter Trinninberg as unknown factor.
If the track is running fast as forecasted... the 1/4 will be ran in .21 - .22s seconds.

the last several years the bet would have been the ten cent super box as a $1 super in 2009 paid $278,503.20, the $1 super in 2010 paid $101,284.00 but in 2011 it fell to a $2 super paying $48,126.00

the derby usually has in excess of 20 horses (i think as many as 22).

supposedly the race is wide open this year so some long shots can come in. an 8 horse box for ten cents would cost $168, a ten horse box is $504, not too bad if you can get $20,000 for it. get some friends together and do a crazy super box, cant lose that much and you just might get a good return.

This year is tougher to handicapp; six top contenders make picking a likely winner very difficult from a very talented bunch of runners.

Right now I leaning Bodemeister, the likely favorite. But betting the favorite in the derby is a bad bet....So, my money is on unbeaten Gemologist.


Here is a nice tribute to triple crown winner Seattle Slew....

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/05/08/sp...ted=all&src=pm

I predict some poor horse will run around the track until he or she crosses the finish line with somebody riding on their back with a whip.
A lot of women will wear silly hats and drink one of those shitty mint tulips.
I doubt if any will show some tit or a nice ass shot.
If they would wear some Brazilian bikinis it would be much more interesting.
Maybe all nude female jockeys with nice tits and fine asses.
Better than looking at some horses ass the whole way round.

Dullahan looks good to me. But the bitch about the Derby is the traffic. Me and two SB's are going and I am going to let one of them drive in the traffic out while I set back with my Bookers and enjoy the other one in the back seat.

The size of the field (20 horses) is a big issue for most of the contenders as their prep races are around 10 horses field. Imagine double that! Also, the weather is a big factor if the track is not dry! Since Big Brown we had fair shares of long shot. This year, only a long shot fast front runner can upset the field. Trinniberg could be that horse this year. Need to see how he trained this week.
As for the top I have to go with one of these three:
-Bodemaster
-Alpha
-Gemologist

I think Bodemeister is the best of this crop of three year olds. But I worry about his changes being compromised by a suicidal speed dual up front, lead by Triniberg. If Bodemeister gets caught up in that, it sets up well for a pace stalker (Alpha, Take Charge Indy or Gemologist, perhaps) or even a dead closer like Dullahan.

I'll post a real prediction when I read the form the day before the race and see how the track is likely to come up.

Mike Smith will control his horse Bodemister much better then most. Breaking from post #6 in the gate, he will need a little speed just so it clears the traffic and stay behind Trinniberg, Alpha and Hansen. Behind him, I see Take Charge Indy to run on the rail.
Very important for him to break clean out the gate and to stay away from getting bump in the turn due to traffic... He could be my key horse as I dont see any other one as solid as him.
Still dont know what to do with Union Rags. He had an excellent work out and if wasn't for this, I would have left him out!!!

Assuming a good to fast track: Bodemeister gets cooked in a pace duel with Triniberg. The half goes in :45 and change. Others who loose all chance include Hansen and Take Charge Indy. I’ll Have Another, Alpha and Gemologist aren’t right on the pace, but are too close to it and become collateral damage. This leaves the mid pack stalkers and the come from the cloud types to duke it out. Union Rags and Creative Cause are the mid pack horse with the best shot and Dullahan his the come from the clouds horse. Which one gets there just depends on how fast the fractions are. But I’m going to cautiously predict a Union Rags over Dullahan exacta. Add Creative Cause to the Tri box.

1. Union Rags
2. Dullahan
3. Creative Cause

Assuming a muddy track: Dullahan moves way up. Union Rags moves up a bit. But oddly enough, so does Bodemeister. In Triniberg’s only start in the slop, he hated it and didn’t run fast early fractions.

1. Bodemeister
2. Dullahan
3. Union Rags

1. Union Rags
2. Gemologist
3. Hansen

And bringing up the rear: Whirlaway

I am betting Daddy Nose Best and Rousing Sermon to win and keying both in exactas and tri's with Alpha , Union Rags and Dullahan.

Thanks for the shout out BT; I will be watching and my heart will swell with pride when the crowd sings "My Ole Kentucky Home".................i have family roots in the hills and hollers of eastern Kentucky.