Trump 1.0 had tariffs and no inflation. Canada and Mexico already came to Trump looking for terms during the first round.
Originally Posted by Schwarzer Ritter
According to an article by Krugman Trump 1.0 tariffs are not the same as Trump 2.0 tariffs.
The original article is here.
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/s...in-the-madness
Here’s a graph of the average US tariff rate by year.
This chart should tell you that you should ignore anyone citing the relatively mild effects of Trump’s 2017-18 tariffs as a reason not to be worried. Trump’s actions then were minor trade skirmishes, while this is all-out trade war.
I don’t know how many people realize that the administration’s case for tariffs is completely incoherent, that it has not one but two major internal contradictions.
Here’s the story: Trumpers are claiming that tariffs
1. Won’t increase prices, because foreign producers will absorb the cost
2. Will cause a large shift in U.S. demand away from imports to domestic production
3. Will raise huge amounts of revenue
If you think about it for a minute, you realize that (1) is inconsistent with (2): If prices of imports don’t rise, why would consumers switch to domestically produced goods? At the same time, (2) is inconsistent with (3): If imports drop a lot, tariffs won’t raise a lot of money, because there won’t be much to tax.
Now admittedly Krugman isn’t exactly an unbiased source but his reasoning seems sound to me.