The Trump Economy

Woo hoo

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...42866197248103


Maybe the 'Fake News Media' isn't talking about $600 Billion because Trump's claim is certifiably fact free.


Calendar year 2025: the U.S. has collected $261.6 billion from them as of Dec. 15
https://www.politico.com/interactive...ncome-tracker/

Also confirmed at $261.6B for CY 2025 here.
https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.ed...show_all=false

Maybe DJT has this confused with his 'tariff rebate'...
“Sending a one-time $2,000 payment to U.S. households would cost between $300 billion and $600 billion — far more than the U.S. is currently collecting in tariffs.” Originally Posted by RX792P

I have yet to see a single Trump supporter explain Twitler's math here. Or admit that possibly the Earless Leader is wrong about this.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...ember-adp-says

Slow...note manufacturing is still not 'roaring back'

Companies in the private sector added 41,000 jobs in December, payroll processing firm ADP said Wednesday.

The figure is below economists’ estimates of a gain of 47,000 jobs. The prior month's payrolls number was revised to a loss of 29,000 from an initially reported loss of 32,000.

On the negative side, professional and business services lost 29,000 jobs in the month. Information and manufacturing lost 12,000 and 5,000 positions, respectively.

The Trump K shaped economy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aFt9_4-SaI

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...61588073149023

Biden ignored the Housing Market, and instead was immersed with High Crime, Open Borders, runaway INFLATION, the Afghanistan Disaster, and a Military that he left in Chaos and Confusion. Everything was broken, but I, as President of the United States, have already fixed it! Now, I am giving special attention to the Housing Market. Because I chose not to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in my First Term, a truly great decision, and against the advice of the “experts,” it is now worth many times that amount — AN ABSOLUTE FORTUNE — and has $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN CASH. Because of this, I am instructing my Representatives to BUY $200 BILLION DOLLARS IN MORTGAGE BONDS. This will drive Mortgage Rates DOWN, monthly payments DOWN, and make the cost of owning a home more affordable. It is one of my many steps in restoring Affordability, something that the Biden Administration absolutely destroyed. We are bringing back the AMERICAN DREAM that was destroyed by the last Administration. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!

Everything was broken, but I, as President of the United States, have already fixed it!
ROFLMFAO..............

Will this make homes more 'affordable' (gee, wasn't affordability a hoax?)

Mortgage rates typically follow the lead of long-term Treasury rates, rather than mortgage bond yields.


trivia...coincidence?
2008 Bailout: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac received a nearly $200 billion taxpayer-funded bailout and were placed under total government control by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). This was intended as a short-term measure but has lasted for over a decade.

More moves for housing 'affordability'

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...55059527504524

For a very long time, buying and owning a home was considered the pinnacle of the American Dream. It was the reward for working hard, and doing the right thing, but now, because of the Record High Inflation caused by Joe Biden and the Democrats in Congress, that American Dream is increasingly out of reach for far too many people, especially younger Americans. It is for that reason, and much more, that I am immediately taking steps to ban large institutional investors from buying more single-family homes, and I will be calling on Congress to codify it. People live in homes, not corporations. I will discuss this topic, including further Housing and Affordability proposals, and more, at my speech in Davos in two weeks.

I do note that the Democratic side has also on occasion championed the same.

Would this have any significant effect?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/home...n-5-years.html

While large institutional investors continue to get most of the headlines in the single-family rental space, small investors account for more than 90% of the market. These are individuals owning 10 properties or less. The largest investors, those with 1,000 or more properties, make up just 2% of all investor-owned homes.

Institutional investors are selling more homes than they buy and have been for six consecutive quarters.
“They’re not exiting the space, just diverting capital into build-to-rent communities. But this shift means less competition for small investors and traditional homebuyers, while also adding more rental supply, which is needed in today’s market where younger adults often opt to rent since they can’t afford to buy a home,” said Rick Sharga, founder and CEO of CJ Patrick Co.

Leapin' lizards! The Atlanta Fed just doubled its GDPNow estimate for Q4 real GDP growth from 2.7% to 5.4%!

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

Here's a quickie analysis:


Sizzling 5.4% Growth: Atlanta Fed Doubles Q4 GDP Estimate, Signaling Unprecedented U.S. Resilience

January 08, 2026 at 17:55 PM EST

In a move that has sent shockwaves through global financial markets, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta drastically revised its GDPNow tracker for the fourth quarter of 2025. On January 8, 2026, the estimate for real GDP growth was effectively doubled, jumping from a projected 2.7% to a staggering 5.4%. This revision marks one of the most significant upward adjustments in the model's history, suggesting that the American economy is not merely avoiding a recession but is currently in the midst of a high-octane expansion that few analysts saw coming.

The immediate implications of this "sizzling" forecast are profound. With official government data currently delayed due to an ongoing federal shutdown, the Atlanta Fed’s nowcast has become the primary North Star for investors and policymakers alike. The 5.4% figure suggests that despite high interest rates and global geopolitical tensions, the U.S. consumer remains undeterred and the domestic trade balance has shifted in a way that provides a massive tailwind to national output.

The revision occurred on the morning of January 8, 2026, following a series of data releases that painted a picture of a rapidly narrowing trade deficit and robust year-end consumer activity. Just three days prior, on January 5, the GDPNow model sat at a respectable but modest 2.7%. The leap to 5.4% was primarily driven by a collapse in the U.S. trade deficit, which shrank by nearly 40% in the final months of 2025. This contraction in the deficit - the lowest level since 2009 - was fueled by a 2.6% rise in exports against a 3.2% drop in imports, a trend many economists attribute to the aggressive tariff policies implemented throughout the previous year.

The timeline of this event is particularly critical because it coincides with a U.S. government shutdown that has shuttered the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). In the absence of official "first look" GDP reports, the Atlanta Fed’s algorithmic model, which synthesizes available data on the fly, has taken center stage. Key stakeholders, including Treasury officials and Federal Reserve governors, are now forced to reckon with an economy that appears to be growing at its fastest pace since the mid-1980s, excluding the anomalous post-pandemic recovery of 2021.

https://markets.financialcontent.com...oogle_vignette

Leapin' lizards! The Atlanta Fed just doubled its FedNow estimate for Q4 real GDP growth from 2.7% to 5.4%!

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Originally Posted by lustylad

... CRIKEY! ... Now THAT is WINNING with Trump Economy! ...

#### Salty

The Atlanta Fed report indeed is good news.

There are some underlying questions.
How much is the K shaped economy contributing?


ING research paints more

https://think.ing.com/articles/us-gr...h-a-capital-k/

Notwithstanding today’s contribution from net trade, we’ve written a lot about the bifurcation in the household sector – the top 20% of households by income continue to spend strongly, boosted by high incomes and soaring wealth, while the bottom 60% are really struggling on concern about job security and the potential for tariff-induced price hikes. This goes a long way in explaining why spending is holding up yet confidence is so weak.

But

Neither of these trends (high-income household spending and tech capex) appear to be weakening and in all likelihood they are going to continue to propel growth in 2026. What could change that? Well, the most likely candidate would be a stock market wobble that hits the value of tech stocks hard. That would likely lead to a tightening of lending conditions which could squeeze capex and hurt those high-income households via negative wealth effects. Recall that Federal Reserve data shows the top 20% of US households by income own 70% of the wealth in America and right now, that style of financial hit would be the most likely event to lead to a change in their spending patterns.

Does GPD good news point toward a reduction in Fed interest rates or a maintenance of current rates as a hedge against an 'overheating' economy?

Positive?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/final...203716343.html

The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, according to Labor Department data published Friday, amid broader concerns about the cooling job market as out-of-work Americans struggle to land roles.

The unemployment rate declined to 4.4%, from 4.5% in November. A Bloomberg survey of economists had estimated a median gain of 70,000 jobs and a 4.5% unemployment rate in the final jobs report for 2025.

Revised data for November, meanwhile, showed a gain of 56,000 jobs rather than 64,000, the Labor Department said Friday, while revised data for October showed a loss of 173,000 jobs compared to the earlier reported decline of 105,000.

In all, monthly payroll growth for the year, including December's data, averaged 49,000, Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said in a post on X.

"That's the slowest annual growth outside of recessions," Kolko said. "Immigration policy slowed workforce growth, which has held back job growth."

... CRIKEY! ... Now THAT is WINNING with Trump Economy! ...

#### Salty Originally Posted by Salty Again

It’s a prediction Salty.

It’s a prediction Salty. Originally Posted by Yssup Rider

Actually, Q4 is over so it's an estimate, not a prediction.

That said, whaddaya think Yssup?

The headline calls the Atlanta Fed's estimate "sizzling". Strong growth, coupled with a dramatic shrinkage in the trade deficit!

See anything you like?

Does GPD good news point toward a reduction in Fed interest rates or a maintenance of current rates as a hedge against an 'overheating' economy? Originally Posted by RX792P

Looks like no Fed rate cuts are likely in the near term. From my link:

"For the Federal Reserve, a 5.4% growth rate makes the case for interest rate cuts almost impossible in the near term. If the economy is growing at double its potential rate, the risk of a second wave of inflation becomes the primary concern for central bankers."

Actually, Q4 is over so it's an estimate, not a prediction.

That said, whaddaya think Yssup?

The headline calls the Atlanta Fed's estimate "sizzling". Strong growth, coupled with a dramatic shrinkage in the trade deficit!

See anything you like? Originally Posted by lustylad

May not be a 'prediction', but is an estimate.

from the link

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.

latest update from the link.

Latest estimate: 5.1 percent — January 09, 2026

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.1 percent on January 9, down from 5.4 percent on January 8. After this morning’s releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real residential investment growth decreased from 1.5 percent to -5.8 percent.

how much of this 5.4% (or 5.1%) "growth" is tied to the ra-ra AI sector, and how much of that is "trickling down" to the regular working stiff..

how much of this 5.4% (or 5.1%) "growth" is tied to the ra-ra AI sector, and how much of that is "trickling down" to the regular working stiff.. Originally Posted by pxmcc

As the ING article linked earlier said

Notwithstanding today’s contribution from net trade, we’ve written a lot about the bifurcation in the household sector – the top 20% of households by income continue to spend strongly, boosted by high incomes and soaring wealth, while the bottom 60% are really struggling on concern about job security and the potential for tariff-induced price hikes. This goes a long way in explaining why spending is holding up yet confidence is so weak.